商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 21 日 工业硅：情绪提振 多晶硅：报价抬升，情绪继续提振 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,390 | -235 | -210 | -870 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 561,795 | 123,482 | 51,515 | -699,135 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 279,868 | -6,737 | -4,632 | -103,428 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,875 | -385 | 585 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 704,931 | 124,324 | 309,286 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 150,086 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index slightly decreased by 0.15%, closing at 5967.84 points, down from 5976.97 points the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 1.47%, but is down 2.87% from the closing high of 6144.15 points on February 19, 2025 [1] - The index has risen 19.77% from the recent low of 4982.77 points on April 8 [1] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains last week, down from 4 the previous week [1] - Year-to-date sector performance shows a 15.21% difference, with the industrial sector leading at 7.78% increase, while the consumer discretionary sector is the worst performer, down 7.43% [1] - For 2024, the sector performance gap is 40.71%, with communication services up 38.89% and materials down 1.83% [1] - The energy sector performed best last week with a 1.10% increase, year-to-date up 3.28%, and up 5.67% from the end of 2023 [1] - The information technology sector ranked second with a 0.88% increase last week, year-to-date up 1.91%, and up 38.28% from the end of 2023 [1] - The financial sector was third with a 0.81% increase last week, year-to-date up 3.90%, and up 33.44% from the end of 2023 [1] - The healthcare sector was the worst performer last week, down 2.66%, year-to-date down 4.02%, and down 3.16% from the end of 2023 [1] - Communication services fell 1.73% last week, year-to-date up 3.80%, and up 44.16% from the end of 2023 [1] Trading Activity - Daily trading volume increased by 15% last week, up 2% from the previous week [2] - Trading volume was 29% higher than the one-year average and 37% higher than the five-year historical average [2] - The VIX index closed at 20.48, down from 20.65 the previous week, with a trading range of 18.67-21.79 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.38% from 4.41% the previous week [2] - Crude oil prices rose to $75 per barrel from $73.46 the previous week [2] - Gold prices fell to $3381.40 from $3452.10 the previous week [2] Earnings Reports - As of the first quarter of 2025, 497 companies have reported earnings, with 383 exceeding expectations and 310 surpassing sales expectations [2] - Earnings are expected to decline by 6.0% compared to Q4 2024, but increase by 5.3% compared to Q1 2024 [2] - Sales are projected to decrease by 4.0% from the record Q4 2024, but increase by 3.5% compared to Q1 2024 [2] - Operating profit margins are expected to drop from 12.04% in Q4 2024 and 11.58% in Q1 2024 to 11.78% [2] Economic Reports - A series of economic reports are scheduled for release this week, including PMI composite initial value, existing home sales, and various price indices [3] - Reports will also cover consumer confidence, mortgage applications, new home sales, and weekly jobless claims [3] - Additional data on durable goods orders, GDP, corporate profits, international trade, and retail inventory will be released [3] - The week will conclude with reports on personal income and spending, as well as consumer sentiment [3]

Group 1 - Investment in high-tech industries has been surpassed by overall manufacturing investment for the first time, indicating a shift in trends after three years of low returns on investments [1][3][4] - Many sectors, including new energy and semiconductors, are showing signs of overcapacity, with rapid technological iterations leading to outdated "new" technologies [3][4] - Private investments focused on financial returns have lagged behind state-owned enterprises, highlighting a disparity in investment strategies [4] Group 2 - Corporate profits are finally showing signs of recovery, with many sectors experiencing profit rebounds, although the automotive industry continues to struggle [5][9] - The gap between fixed asset investment in manufacturing and overall profits is narrowing, suggesting a potential shift towards prioritizing shareholder returns [9][11] - Regulatory pressures in the automotive sector and tightening capital constraints are contributing to a more sustainable investment environment [11] Group 3 - The growth rate of high-tech service industries remains strong, outperforming the manufacturing sector [14] - Consumer spending on services is lagging behind goods due to supply constraints and a lack of quality offerings, impacting overall consumption patterns [17][19] - New consumption trends, particularly those with emotional and differentiated attributes, are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21]

Core Points - The productivity of American workers declined significantly in the first quarter, with a final value decrease of 1.5%, which is worse than the initial estimate of 0.8% [1] - This marks the first decline since the second quarter of 2022, indicating potential challenges for businesses [1] - Labor costs surged by 6.6% in the first quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, surpassing the previously reported 1.3% [1] Economic Impact - Businesses are facing rising costs due to tariffs on imported goods, which may further strain profitability [1] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hinder consumer and business spending, leading to cautious financial guidance from companies in sectors such as airlines, retail, and automotive manufacturing for 2025 [1] - Overall, the decline in productivity and the rise in labor costs could pressure corporate profits moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that Japanese corporate profits remain at a high level and that corporate activities will not be overly constrained by downward pressures from tariffs [1] Group 1 - Japanese corporate profits are currently strong, indicating resilience in the business environment [1] - The impact of tariffs on corporate activities is expected to be limited, suggesting a stable outlook for businesses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that corporate profits are currently being impacted by various economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Impact on Corporate Profits - Corporate profits are facing pressure due to rising costs and changing economic conditions [1] - The RBA is closely monitoring the situation as it may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - Lowe emphasized the importance of understanding the broader economic context in which businesses operate [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities. For example, gold is expected to see a risk preference rebound, copper's price is supported by strong fundamentals, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are in a weak position due to downstream production cuts and falling spot prices respectively [2][12][32][33]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Risk preference rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. Its prices showed declines in the previous trading session, and ETF holdings slightly increased [2][6][9]. - Silver: Stabilizes and rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. There were drops in prices and a decrease in SLV ETF holdings [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Strong fundamentals support the price, with a trend strength of 0. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories, and some countries' production data showed growth [2][12][14]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina is expected to decline slightly. Ore prices are under downward pressure due to production cuts and other factors [2][15][17]. - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0. There were price fluctuations, and a major producer's profit increased due to production and price rises [2][18][19]. - Lead: Price is under pressure as restocking weakens, with a trend strength of - 1. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories [2][21][22]. - Nickel: Upside and downside spaces converge, and the price may fluctuate narrowly, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesian production capacity is recovering, and resource tax policies are adjusted [2][24][26]. - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, with a trend strength of 0. Cost and negative feedback are in a game on the disk [2][25]. - Tin: Shows a slight repair, with a trend strength of 0. There were price increases in the spot market and changes in trading volumes and inventories [2][28][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts lead to a weak performance on the disk, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price drops and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Spot prices fall, and the disk is weak, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price declines and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Carbonate lithium: Weak demand and falling costs lead to a continued weak operation, with a trend strength of 0. There were price drops in the spot market and changes in contract prices and trading volumes [36][37][38]. - Iron ore: Expectations are volatile, and the price fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some macro - economic data were released [39][40]. - Rebar: The expectation of production restrictions rises, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to rebar, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Silicomanganese: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Coke: Affected by production restriction news, it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Coking coal: Similar to coke, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Steam coal: Limited rigid demand, with a weak and oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some position information was provided [56][58][59]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0. The spot market price is stable with some regional differences [60][61]. - p - Xylene: In a de - stocking pattern, it is strong in the short term but weak in the medium term. The suggestion is to go long on PX and short on SC, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - PTA: The basis strengthens significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the monthly spread. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - MEG: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG, and not to chase the monthly spread, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - Rubber: Oscillates, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry news was reported [68][69][71]. Other Commodities - LPG: The center of gravity of civil gas declines, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - PVC: Oscillates weakly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Fuel oil: Weakens slightly at night, and short - term fluctuations narrow, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly oscillates, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market rebounds slightly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Container shipping index (European line): The near - month contract is under pressure, and a short - position on the 10 - 12 spread can be lightly held, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Staple fiber: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Bottle chips: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, and it is advisable to short the processing fee on rallies, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Palm oil: The driving force for price increase is questionable, and it is treated as oscillating for now, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market improves, and there may be a correction at a high level, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market ease, and the futures price falls, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean: Affected by the spot price fluctuation of soybean meal, it follows the decline, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Corn: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Sugar: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Cotton: Demand restricts the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Eggs: Oscillates weakly in the spot market, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Live pigs: A phased de - stocking may start, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills, with a trend strength not provided [4].