Workflow
非典型哑铃配置策略
icon
Search documents
转债策略月报:挖掘结构性机会-20250807
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-07 05:22
Market Review - Convertible bonds have continued to rise alongside equities, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.74% in July, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 2.87%, underperforming equities by 0.87 percentage points [8][15] - The average closing price of convertible bonds reached 140.73 yuan as of July 31, marking a 4.44% increase from the end of June and a new high for 2023 [15][17] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds was 39.20%, with a weighted average of 40.08%, both at the lowest levels since January 2023 [17][19] Strategy Layout - The recommended strategy involves a non-typical barbell approach, focusing on sectors such as military industry, AI computing power, and low-altitude economy, while also including low-volatility dividends and high-cost performance varieties to navigate potential market fluctuations [3][37] - The previous convertible bond selection yielded a return of 19.46% from May to July, significantly outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index's 8.17% increase, with all holdings generating positive returns [36][37] - The report suggests maintaining the barbell strategy, emphasizing high-quality stocks in popular themes and low-priced convertible bonds to enhance defensive positions [3][37] Changes in Holder Structure - As of July 2025, the total market for convertible bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 399.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.297 billion yuan from the previous month [2][24] - The top five holders of convertible bonds included public funds (1,419.79 billion yuan, 36%), corporate annuities (734.97 billion yuan, 18%), and insurance institutions (353.05 billion yuan, 9%) [2][24] - On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the total market for convertible bonds was 318.65 billion yuan, with public funds increasing their holdings by 8.115 billion yuan [2][24] Primary Market Dynamics - In July, nine new convertible bonds were listed, with four exceeding 1 billion yuan in issuance, indicating a positive market sentiment towards new issues [31][32] - The report notes that all new bonds had initial prices above 127 yuan, reflecting strong demand [31][32] - Several companies have received approval for convertible bond issuance, with ongoing applications and proposals in various stages of the approval process [31][34]