证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 转债估值上行。截至 9 月 26 日，全市场可转债平均转股溢价率为 40.78%， 分位数位于 2023 年 1 月以来的 2.70%。余额加权的平均转股溢价率为 42.24%，分位数位于 2023 年 1 月以来的 7.00%，现存转债的算术平均转 股溢价率和加权平均转股溢价率差值不大，均位于 2023 年以来的底部位 置。与 8 月底数据相比，本月转债的加权转股溢价率环比上升 6.51pcts。 公募基金增持转债。据上交所披露的主要券种投资者持有结构数据，2024 年下半年以来可转债市场规模逐步缩小，2025 年 8 月上交所可转债市场 总计 3918.32 亿元，环比减少 74.74 亿元。8 月前五大可转债持有者分别 是：公募基金 1512.42（占可转换公司债券持有面值总额的 39%，后同）、 企业年金 676.97（17%）、保险机构 320.73（8%）、一般机构 251.07（6%）、 证券公司自营 268.18（7%）亿元，其中公募基金增持 92.63 亿元 ...

Market Review - Convertible bonds have continued to rise alongside equities, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.74% in July, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 2.87%, underperforming equities by 0.87 percentage points [8][15] - The average closing price of convertible bonds reached 140.73 yuan as of July 31, marking a 4.44% increase from the end of June and a new high for 2023 [15][17] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds was 39.20%, with a weighted average of 40.08%, both at the lowest levels since January 2023 [17][19] Strategy Layout - The recommended strategy involves a non-typical barbell approach, focusing on sectors such as military industry, AI computing power, and low-altitude economy, while also including low-volatility dividends and high-cost performance varieties to navigate potential market fluctuations [3][37] - The previous convertible bond selection yielded a return of 19.46% from May to July, significantly outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index's 8.17% increase, with all holdings generating positive returns [36][37] - The report suggests maintaining the barbell strategy, emphasizing high-quality stocks in popular themes and low-priced convertible bonds to enhance defensive positions [3][37] Changes in Holder Structure - As of July 2025, the total market for convertible bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 399.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.297 billion yuan from the previous month [2][24] - The top five holders of convertible bonds included public funds (1,419.79 billion yuan, 36%), corporate annuities (734.97 billion yuan, 18%), and insurance institutions (353.05 billion yuan, 9%) [2][24] - On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the total market for convertible bonds was 318.65 billion yuan, with public funds increasing their holdings by 8.115 billion yuan [2][24] Primary Market Dynamics - In July, nine new convertible bonds were listed, with four exceeding 1 billion yuan in issuance, indicating a positive market sentiment towards new issues [31][32] - The report notes that all new bonds had initial prices above 127 yuan, reflecting strong demand [31][32] - Several companies have received approval for convertible bond issuance, with ongoing applications and proposals in various stages of the approval process [31][34]