炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 2026年开年，地缘政治动态和特朗普政策议程再次扰动全球市场。贵金属牛市冲天，"美国例外论"是否 会因此越发式微的论调再度备受关注。与此同时，美国总统特朗普与美联储的冲突升级使得美联储独立 性受侵蚀的风险再起。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）股票与多元资产首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理内森 ·索夫特（Nathan W.Thooft）近日在接受第一财经专访时表示，正是在诸多不确定性因素叠加的背景 下，非美资产越来越受欢迎，由此带动的贵金属狂潮、对非美市场的看好仍会持续。 非美投资趋势显著，对中国股市更乐观 无论投资股市还是债市，对于全球投资者而言，索夫特称，全球市场今年将继续呈现参与度扩大的趋 势，"去年有许多非美国经济体的股票市场表现远好于美国，今年这种趋势很可能会持续，全球部分地 区的表现将继续优于美国。这一方面是因为美国市场估值已经偏高，另一方面是因为美国股票的持仓比 例已经很高——在许多投资组合中，美国股票已经处于超配状态，很难再进一步增加持仓。" 在索夫特看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity of non-US assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and the evolving dynamics of the US Federal Reserve, highlighting a bullish outlook on precious metals and the Chinese stock market [3][4]. Group 1: Non-US Investment Trends - Global markets are expected to see expanded participation, with many non-US economies outperforming the US stock market, driven by high US market valuations and a strong holding of US stocks [5]. - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken in the coming years, benefiting non-US assets, particularly emerging markets, as most debt issuance and investment sources in these economies are dollar-denominated [5][6]. - US investors are increasingly reallocating funds to non-US markets, as they recognize better returns outside the US, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of investment [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook on Chinese Stock Market - There is a positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks, supported by government stimulus measures, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure [7]. - The overall view on Chinese stocks is becoming more optimistic, with expectations of value creation opportunities amid fiscal and monetary easing [7]. Group 3: Comparison with Indian Market - The Indian market is experiencing a shift as investors compare it with China, leading to a sell-off of Indian assets in favor of Chinese investments [8]. - While the Indian market is not expected to perform poorly, it is currently viewed as expensive compared to other emerging markets [8]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence Risk - The article highlights concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid escalating conflicts with President Trump, although the market does not seem overly worried about this risk [9]. - There is a potential scenario where the Fed may aggressively cut rates, which could lead to concerns about its independence and inflation risks [9][10]. - The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its independence, but new appointments may lean towards more dovish policies, potentially supporting further rate cuts [10][11]. Group 5: Precious Metals Bull Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a bull market driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and increasing demand [12][13]. - Gold prices are expected to rise further, with structural factors supporting this trend, while silver may have more volatility due to its speculative nature [13][14]. - Industrial metals are also projected to benefit from favorable demand dynamics, although trade and tariff issues may introduce volatility [14].

Group 1 - Manulife Investment Management's executives believe that the entire Chinese market will perform well and present value creation opportunities [1] - The global market is expected to continue expanding participation, with non-U.S. markets likely to outperform the U.S. due to high valuations and overexposure to U.S. stocks [4] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is anticipated to benefit non-U.S. assets, particularly emerging markets, as most debt issuance and investment sources in these economies are dollar-denominated [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing optimism towards the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable market sentiment and government stimulus measures, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure [6] - The trend of investors shifting from Indian assets to Chinese assets is expected to continue, as China becomes a more attractive destination for international funds [6] - The potential for significant capital expenditure in AI and technology sectors in Asia is highlighted as a key theme for future growth [5][6] Group 3 - The risk to the independence of the Federal Reserve has resurfaced due to escalating conflicts between President Trump and the Fed, although the market does not seem overly concerned [7][8] - There is a possibility of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed in the post-Powell era, which could lead to concerns about inflation if rates are lowered too drastically [8] - The Fed is expected to maintain its independence while potentially aligning more closely with the Trump administration's growth and employment focus [8] Group 4 - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a bull market driven by geopolitical risks, U.S. policy uncertainties, and increasing demand for non-U.S. assets [9] - Gold prices are expected to reach new highs in the coming years, while silver may also see price increases despite higher volatility [9][10] - Industrial metals are projected to benefit from a favorable demand environment, although trade dynamics and tariffs may introduce volatility [10]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies are prompting a shift in global investment strategies, with a notable trend towards non-U.S. assets as investors seek diversification and better returns outside the U.S. market [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S.-Europe Trade Relations - Goldman Sachs warns that the EU may call for the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) in response to U.S. trade threats, particularly regarding President Trump's proposed tariffs on European nations opposing the Greenland acquisition [1][4]. - Deutsche Bank highlights the risk of Europe selling off its $8 trillion in U.S. assets, emphasizing the strategic leverage Europe holds as the largest creditor to the U.S. [1][3]. - The potential activation of ACI could lead to a range of non-tariff retaliatory measures from the EU, indicating a shift from traditional trade disputes to capital and regulatory confrontations [5][4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a growing emphasis on non-U.S. investments due to high valuations in the U.S. market and a saturated allocation of U.S. stocks in many portfolios, leading investors to seek opportunities in other regions [6][7]. - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia (Malaysia and India), Latin America (Mexico and Brazil), and Africa (South Africa and Egypt), are gaining attention as they present high-yield opportunities despite facing risks from U.S. trade policies [8]. - The trend of reallocating investments away from the U.S. is expected to accelerate, as investors recognize the potential for better returns in non-U.S. markets, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital flow [7][6].