Geopolitical Impact - The recent escalation in the Middle East is expected to drive up oil and precious metal prices due to heightened geopolitical tensions[2] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 20% of global oil transportation, poses significant risks to oil supply[4] Oil Price Projections - Brent crude oil prices are projected to exceed $80 per barrel as military actions disrupt Iranian production and shipping routes[7] - In extreme scenarios, oil prices may challenge the highs seen during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022[7] Precious Metals Outlook - Increased risk aversion from geopolitical developments is likely to push gold prices higher, although rising oil prices may complicate this trend by increasing U.S. inflation expectations[7] - The ability of gold to surpass previous highs remains uncertain and will depend on the interplay of inflation and interest rate expectations[7] Commodity Market Opportunities - The global fiscal and monetary easing, ongoing supply chain issues, and a weak U.S. dollar are expected to create favorable conditions for commodity investments in 2026[8] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to maintain strong performance, while opportunities in oil and related chemicals are also noteworthy[16] Economic Context - Major economies, including China, the U.S., and Europe, are expected to continue fiscal expansion in 2026, which historically correlates with commodity price increases[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell over 9% in 2025, and its continued weakness in 2026 is expected to support dollar-denominated commodity prices[13]

人民币汇率在马年伊始连续两日延续强势，在岸及离岸汇率双双为2023年4月以来最高水平。多家机构判断，本轮升值由美元弱势主导，但人民币 基本面同样构成支撑。只要美元信用尚未修复，叠加自身韧性加持，升值趋势有望延续。 2月25日，在岸人民币兑美元升破6.87关口，报6.8658，离岸人民币报6.8628，日内涨幅均超150点。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青将本轮升值归结 为三重动力：中美经贸关系自2025年11月回稳，外部环境改善；美元持续走弱带动非美货币集体走强；以及出口企业结汇需求集中释放放大了升 值节奏。 高盛在2月20日的报告中维持人民币12个月目标6.70，认为人民币仍有约22%的低估空间；汇丰在2月16日的报告中将一季度末预测调至6.85，年底 目标降至6.75；财通证券2月15日研报表示，在极端假设下，人民币兑美元汇率存在逼近6.8的可能。若结售汇意愿持续高涨，甚至可能进一步升 值。上述共同指向信用驱动，美元持续恶化是核心动力。 谨慎观点同步浮现。王青提示，2026年美元指数有望企稳，沃什政策的实际影响值得高度关注，今年人民币基准升值的动能或将减弱。中信证券 首席经济学家明明亦指出，随着近期效应消退，企 ...

记者｜江佩霞 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜张楠 2月25日，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.87。 截至发稿，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8655，盘中最高升至6.86179，较上一交易日上涨180点，创下34个月以来的新高。 人民币强势行情节后进一步提速。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币连破重要关口，是内外部因素共振的结果。 王青分析认为，首先，外部环境改善是人民币走强的重要背景。2025年11月以来，中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境趋于缓和。 在岸人民币对美元汇率同样升破6.87关口，盘中最高升至6.8622，较前一交易日升值超200点。 | < W | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | 6.8669 | | 前收 | 开盘 | 6.8796 | | -0.0180 | 卖品 -0.26% | 6.8673 | 买入 | 6.8668 | | 最高 | 6.8809 | 今年来 -1.75% | 20日 | -1.34% | | 最低 | 6.8622 10日 | -1.00 ...

节后首个交易日，在岸人民币对美元再创阶段性新高。24日，在岸人民币对美元汇率小幅高开，午后强 势拉升，带动离岸人民币对美元汇率走势由贬值转为升值。 24日，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8804，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8760， 双双续创2023年4月28日以来升值高点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析认为，首先，外部环境改善是人民币走强的重要背景。2025年11月以 来，中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境趋于缓和。 其次，美元弱势为非美货币打开升值空间。"近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美联 储独立性受到更大冲击，美元承压；美联储新主席人选的'降息+缩表'主张尚未扭转美元颓势。"王青表 示。 第三，企业结汇需求集中释放形成季节性支撑。王青认为，随着人民币持续走强，此前出口高增累积的 结汇需求正加速释放，叠加年底年初传统结汇旺季，共同推升汇价。 此外，王青还表示，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏高，也在成为助推人民币走势偏强 的一个重要因素。 华泰期货研报指出，近期人民币表现相对稳健，并非单纯受美元波动牵引，内生定价因素占据主导。从 供需结构看，外汇供给端保持平 ...

其次，美元弱势为非美货币打开升值空间。"近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美联储独立性受到更大冲击，美元承压；美联储新主席人 选的'降息+缩表'主张尚未扭转美元颓势。"王青表示。 第三，企业结汇需求集中释放形成季节性支撑。王青认为，随着人民币持续走强，此前出口高增累积的结汇需求正加速释放，叠加年底年初传统结汇旺季， 共同推升汇价。 此外，王青还表示，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏高，也在成为助推人民币走势偏强的一个重要因素。 华泰期货近期研报同样印证了这一判断。报告指出，近期人民币表现相对稳健，并非单纯受美元波动牵引，内生定价因素占据主导。从供需结构看，外汇供 给端保持平稳；从政策定价看，中间价定价偏离已由负值逐步收敛至接近零，更多体现为对市场波动的跟随。 2月24日，离岸人民币对美元汇率飙升超1100点，盘中一度升至6.8760，截至下午16：55，离岸人民币汇率报6.8773。 在岸人民币兑美元收盘报6.8849，较上一交易日上涨265点，创2023年4月20日以来新高。 同日，A股开门红，创业板涨近1%，油气、贵金属掀涨停潮，人民币资产强势爆发。 这轮始于2025年12月的强势行 ...

彭博美元指数刚刚录得4月以来最大两日涨幅，部分原因是美国工厂数据表现意外强劲。这份数据推动 美元从上个月触及的近四年低点反弹，美元指数上月曾下跌约1.3%。 在美国经济表现韧性十足、近期通胀显现粘性特征的背景下，美元周一试图展开反弹，但这并不意味着 其今年的避险资产属性正在增强。 道明证券外汇策略师贾亚蒂・巴拉德瓦杰（Jayati Bharadwaj）表示，本月通常是美国经济数据表现强劲 的窗口期，美元大概率将延续近期的反弹走势。 她说："这是一笔容易把握的交易，因为我们看空美元的理由，远比支撑美元持续反弹的理由多得多。 美元任何一轮上行修正或仓位出清，都是重新建立大额美元空单的好时机。" 巴克莱银行也认为，1月美元的下跌反映出的弱势或仍将持续，因投资者对这一全球储备货币的信心已 出现一定程度的动摇。 巴克莱银行分析师在本周的研报中表示，此次美元走弱与去年4至6月的大幅抛售不同：彼时特朗普推出 的"解放日"关税颠覆了全球贸易秩序，市场认为这些关税"将对美国经济造成重大打击"并引发货币政策 宽松，进而导致美元大跌。 分析师们写道："而此次，美元走弱发生在美国经济展现出显著韧性的背景下，更纯粹地反映出投资者 对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold futures for February delivery have risen over 2%, surpassing the $5,100 mark, while silver futures have increased by over 6%, reaching $108 per ounce, potentially marking the largest monthly gain in history [2]. - HSBC's latest report links the rise in gold and silver prices to geopolitical issues, with a weaker dollar further boosting the commodity market [4]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce, citing a persistent demand for hedging against macroeconomic risks [4][5]. - Central banks are purchasing gold at an average monthly rate of 60 tons, significantly higher than the pre-2022 average of 17 tons, indicating a shift towards gold assets in foreign reserves [5]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures have seen a remarkable increase, with prices rising over 50% this month, potentially achieving the best monthly performance since December 1979 [7]. - The current supply shortage in the silver market is a key factor driving prices higher, with analysts suggesting that the upward trend may still be in its early stages [6][7]. - The World Silver Association has indicated that 2025 will mark the fifth consecutive year of global silver supply shortages, enhancing silver's appeal as a more accessible alternative to gold [7]. - Analysts predict that silver prices could reach $120 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased demand [7].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 2026年开年，地缘政治动态和特朗普政策议程再次扰动全球市场。贵金属牛市冲天，"美国例外论"是否 会因此越发式微的论调再度备受关注。与此同时，美国总统特朗普与美联储的冲突升级使得美联储独立 性受侵蚀的风险再起。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）股票与多元资产首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理内森 ·索夫特（Nathan W.Thooft）近日在接受第一财经专访时表示，正是在诸多不确定性因素叠加的背景 下，非美资产越来越受欢迎，由此带动的贵金属狂潮、对非美市场的看好仍会持续。 非美投资趋势显著，对中国股市更乐观 无论投资股市还是债市，对于全球投资者而言，索夫特称，全球市场今年将继续呈现参与度扩大的趋 势，"去年有许多非美国经济体的股票市场表现远好于美国，今年这种趋势很可能会持续，全球部分地 区的表现将继续优于美国。这一方面是因为美国市场估值已经偏高，另一方面是因为美国股票的持仓比 例已经很高——在许多投资组合中，美国股票已经处于超配状态，很难再进一步增加持仓。" 在索夫特看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the CHF's safe-haven appeal and the resilience of the Swiss economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, which diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains its interest rate at 0%, with a high threshold for returning to negative rates, supporting the CHF [1] - The divergence in monetary policy, characterized by "Fed easing and Swiss stability," favors the CHF [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Swiss economy shows resilience, with third-quarter GDP contraction offset by growth in manufacturing and services, and the central bank projects GDP growth slightly below 1.5% for 2025 [1] - The US third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations but failed to reverse the USD's weakness, with the USD index falling to a three-month low [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Increased global geopolitical and trade uncertainties are attracting funds into the CHF, although excessive appreciation could lead to deflation and impact exports [2] - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with RSI entering oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound, while MACD remains bearish [2] - Institutions have differing views on future trends, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term rebound for the USD, while UBS expects continued weakness until mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Future Focus - Key future considerations include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signals from the Swiss National Bank, and global geopolitical risks [2] - Investors are advised to monitor Swiss inflation, Federal Reserve communications, and non-farm payroll data for risk management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate continues to weaken, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside deflationary pressures in Switzerland and the broad weakness of the USD [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year, diminishing the attractiveness of the USD [1]. - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its policy rate at 0% for the second consecutive time, indicating a high threshold for returning to negative interest rates, which supports the CHF [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Switzerland's economy shows resilience despite a contraction in GDP due to a decline in pharmaceutical exports, with moderate growth in manufacturing and services offsetting this decline [2]. - The signing of a trade agreement between the US and Switzerland has significantly reduced tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, alleviating concerns about Swiss exports and providing additional support for the CHF [2]. Group 3: USD Performance - Despite a strong annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% in the US for Q3, the USD remains broadly weak, with the USD index falling to a three-month low of 97.75 [3]. - The labor market's signs of weakness, highlighted by Fed Chair Powell, reinforce expectations for continued monetary easing, impacting the USD's performance [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical indicators present mixed signals, with the RSI entering oversold territory at 22.79, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, while the MACD indicates prevailing bearish momentum [3]. - The USD/CHF has broken below the key support level of 0.79, with short-term fluctuations expected between 0.79 and 0.80, and critical support at 0.7870 [3]. Group 5: Institutional Outlook - Institutions have differing views on the future of the USD/CHF exchange rate, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound, while UBS Wealth Management emphasizes a long-term bearish trend for the USD [4].