环球市场动态 美 元 弱 势 至 少 在 年 内 持 续 股 票 A 股周四涨跌不一，创业板再创三 年新高；港股高开低走，银行股拖 累大盘；欧洲股市普遍下跌，特朗 普贸易政策不确定性再度影响市场 情绪；美股三连跌，二季度 GDP 上 修影响市场降息预期。 外 汇 / 商 品 市场观望俄罗斯与北约之间的局 势，周四国际油价震荡；失业救济 人数和二季度 GDP 终值显示美国 经济强韧，降息预期略为降温，美 元跟随美债收益率走强；国际金价 高位靠稳；银价 14 年来首次突破 45 美元。 固 定 收 益 美国中短期国债领跌，强于预期的 经济数据令债市承压，收益率曲线 走平。亚洲债券需求回温，债券利 差普遍收窄 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 9 月 26 日 ▪ 美联储 2025 年 9 月重启降息，预计年内后续以及 2026 年美联储降息将持续，而欧央行降息放缓、日本央行 仍在加息进程中的背景下，美欧、美日利差预计将进一步收窄。同时，美国就业市场走弱、经济动能放缓预计 也将导致美元走弱。此外，特朗普致力 ...

中信建投指出，从"喝奶"到"吃奶"，国内乳制品产业深加工品类发展进入新阶段，产业加快布局产能 (未来产能预计超70万吨)，借助低奶价与下游降本增效诉求，推动乳品深加工品牌与原料的国产化替 代。B端深加工需求规模预计超260亿元，烘焙、现制饮品、西式快餐高景气带动B端需求持续高增长。 国产品牌凭借产品性价比、本土供应链、市场服务等优势，看好国产深加工品类进入高增长阶段。 中信证券：预计美元弱势至少会在2025年年内持续 中信证券指出，2011年开始，美国经济相对优势、利差优势和美元资产的高吸引力等因素推动美元进入 长达十余年的强势周期。而2022年下半年开始，美国与其他国家货币政策差收窄推动美元进入了新一轮 弱周期。考虑美国货币政策差、美国经济动能放缓等因素，预计美元弱势至少会在2025年年内持续。 本文转载自"智通财经"，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 市场昨日震荡上行，创业板指探底回升一度涨逾2%，续创3年多新高。沪深两市成交额2.37万亿，较上 一个交易日放量443亿。板块方面，游戏、AI应用、可控核聚变等板块涨幅居前，港口航运、贵金属、 油气等板块跌幅居前。截至昨日收盘，沪指跌0.01%，深成指涨0.67%，创 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 30 日 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 宏观方面，尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但受中东局势缓和和降息预期的推动，纳指、标普创历史新高。 （华尔街见闻） 微观方面，日本 JX 金属公司（JX Advanced Metals Corp.）的发言人称，该公司将削减数万吨精炼 铜产量，因铜精矿供应紧俏。（SMM） 据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国5月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为239.52万吨，环比下降17.55%， 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,920 | 1.31% | 79920 | 0.00% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,879 | -0.17% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated June 30, 2025, covering copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Copper: The weak US dollar supports the price [2] - Zinc: It is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price [2] - Lead: There are expectations for the peak season, which supports the price [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Metal Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, up 1.31% during the day and unchanged at night. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,879 US dollars, down 0.17%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper increased, while LME copper's trading volume decreased and positions increased. Inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,650 tons, and LME copper decreased by 1,800 tons. The LME copper premium decreased by 79.16 US dollars [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Nasdaq and S&P reached record highs due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and interest - rate cut expectations. Japan's JX Metal will cut refined copper production. China's May copper concentrate imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month and increased by 6.61% year - on - year. Antofagasta hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres. Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/ton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,410 yuan, up 0.76%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,778.5 US dollars, up 0.31%. Trading volume of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. Positions of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Zinc inventories of both Shanghai and LME decreased [7] - **News**: From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,125 yuan, down 0.58%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 2,041.5 US dollars, up 0.15%. Trading volume of both Shanghai and LME lead decreased, while positions of Shanghai lead increased and LME lead decreased. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased slightly. Lead inventories of both Shanghai and LME increased [10] - **News**: Similar to zinc, from January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,480 yuan, down 350 yuan. The stainless - steel main contract was at 12,620 yuan, down 15 yuan. Trading volumes of both decreased significantly. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 700 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased slightly. The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi increased slightly [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July. The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban. Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park [12][13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has fallen to approximately 97.00, marking a three-year low, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [1] - The euro has risen to a three-year high against the dollar, reaching 1.173, while the Swiss franc has hit a ten-year high [1] - The Japanese yen has strengthened as the dollar depreciates, with the USD/JPY rate dropping below 144.00 [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's government plans to lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.2% to below 1%, primarily due to global trade risks from US tariff policies [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated for four consecutive trading days, influenced by slowing inflation data, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia [3] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that interest rates will gradually decline, but the monetary policy will not follow a preset path, emphasizing the need for a restrictive stance until inflation risks subside [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Market sentiment is driven by three factors: rumors of a leadership change at the Federal Reserve, easing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade negotiations influenced by Trump's tariff comments [1] - There is strong demand for put options on the dollar, indicating that traders view the dollar's decline as a key risk to hedge against [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro can break through the 1.17 level against the dollar, it may pave the way for further gains towards 1.20, supported by a favorable trade stance from US allies [6]

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 今年以来，全球贸易形势变化成为了黄金上涨的重要推手。在中美日内瓦商贸谈判后，国际金价一度 从历史高位回撤近6%，然而美国总统特朗普在关税问题上反复和随后美国多边贸易谈判缺乏实质性 进展使得市场焦虑情绪卷土重来。花旗在最新报告中将三个月金价目标位再次调回至3500美元，不 过长期前景面临不利因素挑战。与此同时，不少机构将美国财政危局、美元弱势和实物需求旺盛视为 短中期利多因素。 花旗：短期看好长期谨慎 在上周日发布的一份研究报告中，花旗预测未来三个月内黄金交易目标为3500美元，高于5月12日 设定的3300美元。 最新修正源于特朗普上周再次发出威胁，要从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。不过随后他改变了 想法，据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他 已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 尽管上修了目标价，花旗分析师对黄金长期前景持谨慎态度，并列举了两个可能的不利因素：其一， 随着美国中期选举临近和美联储降息，经济增长和相关股票风险可能会解除。其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the US dollar due to decreased confidence in the currency and a shift of funds towards other countries' assets, with the dollar index dropping by 0.76% to 100.102 [1][2] - Investment banks and forex strategists highlight that the weakening of the dollar is driven by concerns over a potential US economic recession and a loss of investor confidence in US decision-making, leading to a rotation of investments towards the eurozone and other regions [1][2] - The euro has reached its highest level since February 2022, with 1 euro exchanging for 1.1312 USD, while the British pound has also strengthened, trading at 1.3060 USD, reflecting positive economic data from Europe compared to the US [2] Group 2 - The dollar's decline is notable as it is at its weakest level in six months, raising doubts about its status as the world's reserve currency [2] - The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have emerged as preferred safe-haven currencies, contrasting with the typical behavior of the dollar in risk-averse environments [1] - Recent economic data from Germany and Spain shows stable inflation, which has not declined like in the US, further supporting the euro's strength against the dollar [2]