占GDP 2%的资金涌入美股 "美国股市在全市场受追捧的程度令人难以置信。净股票流入从未如此强劲。"Tim Baker在报告中直言，"在整个 2025年，净流入资金达到了令人瞠目结舌的占美国GDP 2%的水平。" 这是一个极其庞大的数字。德银指出，仅凭这笔创纪录的股票净流入资金，就足以单枪匹马地为美国三分之二的经 常账户赤字提供融资。 在这场资本盛宴中，不仅他国投资者在疯狂买入美股，美国本土投资者也展现出了极强的"本土偏好"。报告显示， 美国投资者购买外国股票的意愿处于疲软状态。在过去的一年半里，美国在G10国家中显得格格不入。除了英国勉 强接近外，绝大多数G10国家都经历了股票资金的净流出。 美股正遭遇"买得越多，跑得越输"的尴尬境地，德意志银行警告称，一旦美股创纪录的外资流入发生逆转，美元将 面临严峻的下行风险。 据追风交易台，2月25日，德意志银行宏观策略师Tim Baker发布报告显示，尽管全球资金正在以史无前例的速度涌 入美国股市，但美股的相对表现却令人大跌眼镜。"美国市场却落后了——表现更好的是更便宜、更具周期性的市 场。" 在德银看来，关键不只是股市排名变化，而是它可能触发一个更大的链条：海外投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential market trends following the consensus on tariff adjustments between China and the U.S., emphasizing the expected outperformance of non-U.S. assets, particularly gold and Hong Kong stocks, in the current economic climate [1][2][11]. Group 1: Market Trends and Asset Performance - Non-U.S. assets are expected to outperform this year, with gold significantly leading the way [2][11]. - The article suggests that this year should focus on assets outside the U.S., such as Hong Kong stocks, the euro, and gold [3][13]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is anticipated to continue for several years, impacting gold prices positively [8][19]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to reach new highs, with a specific forecast of surpassing 24,000 points by the third quarter [6][45]. - The article notes that the recent high of 24,874 points was observed in March, and a new peak is expected soon [7][45]. - Key sectors expected to drive this growth include technology, consumer goods, and healthcare, supported by favorable national policies and strong earnings growth [47]. Group 3: Economic Influences and Predictions - The article highlights that individual actions, such as those by former President Trump, cannot alter the overall economic cycle but can increase market volatility [5][30][34]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the logic behind market valuations, particularly regarding the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of Hong Kong stocks [41][42]. - It suggests that significant inflows of capital from mainland China could positively impact the Hong Kong market [43].