Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the online music industry [1] Core Insights - The online music industry exhibits strong bilateral effects and is less correlated with the economy, with "one super and one strong" company identified as high-quality long-term cash flow assets [2] - The industry is characterized by high concentration due to significant copyright fees, making it difficult for new entrants [2] - The growth of music subscriptions is driven by supply-side factors, with low churn rates observed in subscription services [2][32] - The Chinese digital music market is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing global growth [7][12] Summary by Sections 01 Overview of Domestic and International Online Music Industry - The online music industry has a high concentration, with Tencent Music holding approximately 66% market share and NetEase Cloud Music around 27% [25] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards subscription models, with significant growth in paid users [32] 02 Tencent Music and Spotify Stock Review - Tencent Music's subscription business is a key growth driver, with a projected CAGR of 19% for subscription revenue from 2024 to 2027 [5] - Spotify is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4] 03 Financial Analysis - The subscription penetration rates for Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are projected to reach 25% and 20.6% respectively by 2024 [5] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) for Tencent Music is expected to increase, driven by the development of premium services [5] 04 Valuation Analysis and Investment Recommendations - The online music industry is projected to maintain a CAGR of 15% over the next three years, indicating growth potential [5] - Current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for Tencent Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Spotify are 23x, 27x, and 38x respectively for 2025 [5]

Group 1 - Tencent Music reported a revenue of 7.356 billion yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% and an adjusted net profit of 2.226 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [1] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of the paid membership business, with online music revenue increasing by 15.9% to 5.8 billion yuan and subscription revenue rising by 16.6% to 4.22 billion yuan [1] - The number of online paid users grew by 8.3% to 122.9 million, with the average revenue per paid user (ARPPU) increasing by 0.3 yuan to 11.4 yuan [1] Group 2 - Despite the revenue growth, Tencent Music's monthly active users for online music services declined by 4.0% year-on-year to 555 million [2] - The focus on paid users has become a common strategy among Tencent's enterprises, as seen with the decline in monthly active users for Tencent's reading platform [2] Group 3 - Tencent Music's social entertainment revenue decreased by 11.9% year-on-year to 1.55 billion yuan, as the company shifts its strategic focus to core music business [3] - The company will no longer separately disclose operational metrics for the social entertainment segment [3] Group 4 - To sustain growth, Tencent Music must continue to promote music paid users, a strategy also mirrored by NetEase Cloud Music [4] - The overall music market is moving towards a stable yet unexciting monetization model, making free music access increasingly difficult [5] Group 5 - On May 14, Tencent Music's stock closed at 61.5 HKD per share, with a gain of 12.84% [6]