Report Title - Threaded Steel & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report [1] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the off-season, trade based on expectations and focus on rebound opportunities [3] Summary by Directory Macro Environment - Overseas: US inflation unexpectedly declined in September, boosting the valuation of pro-cyclical commodities. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders had positive results, leading to a temporary improvement in the macro environment [5][9] - Domestic: Manufacturing and infrastructure investment declined due to the "anti-involution" effect. To ensure the economy escapes the deflationary spiral, demand-side efforts are needed in the medium to long term. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the domestic focus shifted back to "anti-involution" trading [5][8] Black Industry Chain - The peak season demand was weaker than expected. To maintain inventory levels, supply must be reduced, which requires price drops and profit compression. As scrap steel for electric furnaces is a high-cost iron element, attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of electric furnaces [5] Threaded Steel - **Base Price and Spread**: Last week, the spot price of Shanghai threaded steel was 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3106 (+60) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 124 (-30) yuan/ton, and the 01-05 spread was -60 (+3) yuan/ton [20] - **Demand**: New home sales remained at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remained high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low. Demand showed a seasonal increase but was still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [21][24][25] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply was at a low level while demand increased, and the inventory level was healthy [26] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of production restriction expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the spot profit of threaded steel was 52 (-37) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 59 (-3) yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit of East China threaded steel was 40 (-7) yuan/ton [31][34] Hot-Rolled Coil - **Base Price and Spread**: Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3308 (+58) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 22 (-18) yuan/ton, and the 01-05 spread was -10 (+5) yuan/ton [39] - **Demand**: The production schedules of the home appliance and automotive industries were poor, resulting in a lackluster peak season. However, export profits were favorable, and exports remained at a high level [40][44] - **MS Weekly Data**: Demand increased, and inventory decreased [48] - **Production Profit**: Due to the revision of production restriction expectations, steel mill profits decreased. Last week, the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was -8 (-26) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 111 (-5) yuan/ton [51][53] Variety Spread Structure - Pay attention to the opportunity of an expanding cold-hot spread [54] Variety Regional Difference - Analyze the price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil among different regions [63] Cold Roll and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Present the seasonal data of cold-rolled and medium-thick plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption [69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the off - season, focus on expectations and look for opportunities for steel price rebounds. The overseas macro situation shows that the inflation in the US declined more than expected in September, which lifted the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, manufacturing and infrastructure investment decreased due to the "anti - involution" policy. To avoid deflation, long - term demand - side measures are needed. After the Fourth Plenary Session, domestic trading shifted back to the "anti - involution" theme. In the black industry chain, the peak - season demand was weak. To maintain inventory levels, supply reduction through price drops and profit compression is necessary. Attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Situation 3.1.1 Overseas Macro - US inflation in September declined more than expected, leading to an increase in the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities [3][8]. 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, showing a downward trend. After the Fourth Plenary Session, domestic trading shifted back to the "anti - involution" theme. To get the economy out of the deflation spiral, long - term demand - side efforts are required [3][7]. 3.2 Black Industry Chain - The industry logic is dominated by negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces as scrap steel used in electric arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, and valley - electricity operations are in the loss state [3][11]. 3.3 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread of Threaded Steel - Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3200 (0) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3046 (+9) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 154 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 63 (- 7) yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.2 Threaded Steel Demand - Second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand. However, new - housing transactions remained low, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remained low [21]. - Threaded steel demand seasonally increased but was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [22]. 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - Supply was at a low level, demand increased, and the inventory level was healthy [23]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel and Electric Arc Furnace - Scrap steel is still a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [31]. 3.3.5 Threaded Steel Production Profit - Last week, the threaded steel spot profit was 84 (0) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 62 (- 29) yuan/ton, and the East China threaded steel valley - electricity profit was 47 (+11) yuan/ton [37]. 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread of Hot - rolled Coil - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3250 (+46) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 40 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 15 (+5) yuan/ton [42]. 3.4.2 Hot - rolled Coil Demand - The peak - season demand for hot - rolled coils was weak as the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries were not good. However, export profit opportunities emerged, and exports remained at a high level [43][45]. 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - Demand increased, and inventory decreased [48]. 3.4.4 Hot - rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 7 (+14) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 116 (+8) yuan/ton [53]. 3.5 Variety Spread Structure - Pay attention to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread [54]. 3.6 Variety Regional Difference - Information on regional price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc. was provided, including the price differences between different regions such as Hangzhou - Beijing, Beijing - Guangzhou, and Shanghai - Tianjin [65][66]. 3.7 Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Data on the seasonal total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - plates were presented [71].