房价车价暴跌不是"捡漏"机会，而是经济收缩的预警信号。2025年杭州某新开盘项目推出"每平方米直降5000元"的促销活动，吸引数千人排队抢购，但三 个月后业主发现周边二手房均价已跌破新盘价格，形成"买完即亏"的怪圈。这种"降价即陷阱"的现象，在经济学中被称为"通缩螺旋"——当价格持续下跌 时，消费者会预期未来价格更低而推迟消费，导致需求萎缩、企业裁员、收入减少，最终形成恶性循环。 企业与消费者需建立"反通缩"思维。企业应避免"降价竞销"的短期行为，转而通过提升产品附加值、拓展服务型收入构建竞争壁垒。例如某新能源车企推 出"车电分离"模式，将电池作为服务产品单独收费，既降低购车门槛，又创造持续收入流。消费者则需理性看待价格波动，避免"追涨杀跌"的投机心态 ——当房价车价远低于合理区间时，需警惕"便宜无好货"的陷阱，同时通过多元化资产配置对冲风险。 更深层次的问题在于社会心理的"通缩预期"固化。当"降价成为常态"的预期深入人心，消费者会无限期推迟大额支出，企业会缩减投资计划，最终导致经 济"自我实现"的衰退。这种预期管理比单纯的价格调控更为关键。需通过权威信息发布、经济数据透明化等方式重建市场信心，同时加强金融监 ...

一边是"存钱不赚钱"的现实，一边是"疯狂存钱"的热潮，这种矛盾背后，是否藏着不可忽视的危机？30年前日本从利率下行到零利率、负利率的演变，或许 能给我们一些启示。 上世纪90年代初，日本泡沫经济破裂，股市、楼市崩盘，经济从"失落的十年"一路滑向"失落的三十年"。为了刺激经济，日本政府开启了漫长的"零利率"甚 至"负利率"时代。然而，与经济学教科书相悖的是，低利率并未能有效刺激消费和投资，反而催生了一个独特的"低欲望社会"现象。 日本当时出现了哪些值得我们警惕的现象呢？ 一方面是心态的转变，泡沫破裂摧毁了"终身雇佣"和"年功序列"的神话，收入增长停滞，失业阴影笼罩。曾经坚信"奋斗就能致富"的一代人，价值观彻底崩 塌。人们不再热衷于借贷消费、投资未来，而是选择"无债一身轻"和"现金为王"。储蓄，不再是为了增值，而是为了"活下去"的安全感。 另一方面是消费萎缩与通货紧缩的恶性循环。企业发现商品卖不动了，于是降价促销；民众看到物价下跌，更倾向于推迟消费，等待明天更便宜的价格。这 就形成了一个自我强化的"通缩螺旋"。整个社会经济活动趋于停滞，如同一潭死水。 而随之而来"低欲望"成为普遍现象，年轻人目睹了父辈在泡沫时期的 ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年11月02日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 螺纹&热卷观点：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 1、钢材观点：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 2、铁矿周度观点：宏观预期向好，高位震荡 3、煤焦周度观点：供需现实偏紧，高位震荡 4、铁合金观点：板块情绪扰动叠加基本面矛盾，价格宽幅震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：淡季讲预期，钢价关注反弹机会 ◼ 逻辑：淡季讲预期，钢价关注反弹机会 ◼ 宏观面：海外宏观：美国9月通胀超预期下滑，顺周期商品估值抬升；国内宏观：制造业投资和基建投资端受"反内卷" 影响，出现下滑，为了保证经济走出通缩螺旋，中长期需要需求端发力。四中全会后国内主线再度转向"反内卷"交易； ◼ 黑色产业链：旺季需求表现为旺季不旺。平衡表视角，若要保证库存不增加，只能通过减少供给实现，而其充分必要条 件就是价格下跌，利润压缩。电炉用的废钢是高成本铁元素，属于供给边际，谷电亏损，产业链端关注电炉减产节奏。 | 2025/10/24 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Economic Sentiment and Housing Market - The central bank's survey reveals a significant disconnect between GDP growth and the economic sentiment of ordinary people, particularly regarding housing prices [1][3] - By the end of Q2, only 8.9% of respondents expected housing prices to rise, a sharp decline from 36.5% in Q2 2018, while 21.7% anticipated a drop in prices [3][5] - The lack of confidence in personal income growth has led to the lowest net increase in household debt since 2012, as individuals are hesitant to borrow for housing purchases [3][5] Consumer Behavior and Corporate Challenges - Rising income and employment pressures have resulted in a historical peak in household savings, driven by fear of future uncertainties rather than interest earnings [5][9] - Despite a 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year, business owners generally perceive the economy as weak, with only 0.6% feeling optimistic about their business prospects [5][9] - Over 30% of businesses reported losses, leading to cash flow issues and a reluctance to hire, exacerbating employment market pressures [5][9] Fiscal Deficits and Structural Issues - The fiscal deficit reached a record high of 5.25 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, surpassing the U.S. deficit for the same period [9][10] - Tax revenue growth has stagnated, dropping from an average of nearly 9% annually (2012-2018) to just 0.09% since 2019, primarily due to struggling businesses [10][12] - Local governments are increasingly relying on non-tax revenue, which has risen to 19.6% of total revenue, indicating a growing fiscal imbalance [12][14] Long-term Economic Concerns - The declining birth rate, projected to fall below 1, poses a long-term threat to economic growth and housing demand, mirroring Japan's experience with population decline [7][9] - The reliance on land sales for local government revenue has diminished, with land income in the first half of the year at only 41% of the same period in 2021 [14][16] - The increasing visible debt of local governments, which rose by 8.34 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflects a reliance on borrowing to maintain fiscal stability [14][16] Reform and Recovery Strategies - Comprehensive reforms in the fiscal and tax systems are essential to address the underlying issues, including transitioning from indirect to direct taxation [16][18] - The government aims to create a more stable income source for local authorities, reducing dependence on land sales and non-tax revenues [16][18] - Investments in social welfare and public services are crucial for restoring consumer confidence and stimulating economic activity [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between the general public's desire for falling prices and economists' preference for moderate inflation, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these perspectives [1][3][21]. Economic Perspectives - Economists advocate for a moderate annual inflation rate of around 2% to stimulate consumption and investment, as it encourages spending rather than delaying purchases due to anticipated lower prices [1][3]. - Inflation is seen as beneficial for governments as it helps dilute debt burdens, while businesses prefer it because wages are rigid and can only increase [1][3]. Individual vs. Macro Perspectives - The article illustrates the difference between individual experiences and macroeconomic data through various examples, such as the disconnect between low GDP growth and rising stock markets in the U.S. [4][5]. - It highlights that while large corporations and wealthy individuals benefit from economic growth, small businesses and ordinary citizens face stagnating wages and increased living costs [5][6]. Youth Employment and Satisfaction - Despite a high youth unemployment rate of 14.5%, many young individuals report higher satisfaction levels compared to the overall population, indicating a complex relationship between employment and personal fulfillment [7][11]. - The phenomenon of "youth unemployment" is partly attributed to a preference for quality jobs over any job, supported by family wealth [14][16]. Housing Market Dynamics - The article discusses the dual effects of rising housing prices: the "wealth effect," which encourages spending due to perceived increased wealth, and the "squeeze effect," which limits disposable income for other expenditures [17][18]. - It argues that the wealth effect is more pronounced and persistent compared to the initial squeeze effect experienced by homeowners [18]. Inventory Management Strategies - The concept of "price increases to reduce inventory" is explored, suggesting that while consumers may prefer lower prices, businesses may benefit from raising prices to stimulate demand and manage excess inventory [19][20]. - This strategy reflects the ongoing tension between individual consumer preferences and broader economic strategies aimed at stabilizing markets [21].

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the general public's desire for falling prices and economists' preference for moderate inflation, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these perspectives [1][5][6] - Economists argue that a moderate annual inflation rate of around 2% is ideal as it encourages consumption and investment, preventing consumers from delaying purchases in anticipation of lower prices [2][3] - The article emphasizes that while inflation can benefit government debt management and corporate profits, it can exacerbate income inequality, as asset prices often rise faster than consumer prices during inflationary periods [4][12] Group 2 - The article presents examples of the disparity between individual experiences and overall economic data, such as the contrast between low GDP growth and rising stock markets in the U.S., where 73% of companies exceeded earnings expectations in the second quarter [7][9] - It highlights the phenomenon of high youth unemployment rates coexisting with high satisfaction levels among young people, suggesting that many young individuals prefer to wait for better job opportunities rather than accept unsatisfactory positions [15][23][25] - The article also discusses the wealth effect versus the squeeze effect of rising housing prices, indicating that while higher home values can boost consumer spending, they can also increase financial burdens for homeowners [27][28] Group 3 - The article addresses the paradox of price increases being used as a strategy to reduce inventory, noting that while consumers may prefer lower prices, macroeconomic trends show that falling prices can lead to decreased spending and increased savings [29][30] - It concludes that the ongoing tension between individual pain points related to living costs and economists' optimistic views on overall growth reflects a broader struggle in economic discourse [32]

Group 1 - Inflation leads to early consumption, creating an "inflation spiral" where rising prices stimulate further consumption [3][5] - In a deflationary environment, delaying consumption is beneficial, resulting in a "deflation spiral" that exacerbates deflation [4][13] - Borrowing is advantageous in inflationary conditions, as the real value of debt decreases, encouraging more borrowing and increasing money circulation [10][11] Group 2 - The impact of inflation and deflation on housing prices illustrates the risks associated with borrowing; a significant drop in property value can lead to substantial losses [11][12] - CPI statistics may exaggerate inflation during periods of consumption upgrades, while deflation may not be fully captured due to quality degradation in products [16][20] - Technological advancements generally exert a deflationary effect, while stagnation in technology can lead to inflationary pressures [21][30] Group 3 - The "Amazon effect" in the U.S. retail sector demonstrates how e-commerce can suppress inflation through lower prices and increased efficiency [27] - China's manufacturing advantages stem from a combination of efficient supply chains, infrastructure, and cost control, contributing to a deflationary environment [28][29] - Economic balance is maintained through the interplay of financial mechanisms creating inflation and technological advancements fostering deflation [34][35]