Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, highlighting market behaviors and concerns regarding inflation and fiscal sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Long-term Treasury Yields - After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14%, while the 30-year yield exceeded 4.75% [2][3]. - The rise in yields is attributed to a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market behavior, where investors had already priced in the rate cuts, leading to profit-taking after the actual cuts occurred [3]. - Concerns about persistent inflation have also contributed to the rise in long-term yields, as the market anticipates that inflation may not easily return to the Fed's 2% target [3]. Group 2: Risks Signaled by Bond Market - The high long-term yields signal two major risks: unsustainable fiscal deficits and skepticism about the pace of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Elevated yields increase the government's interest payments on its substantial debt, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of rising deficits and inflation [5]. - The stock market has reacted positively to the rate cuts, particularly in technology stocks, while the bond market's concerns about inflation have pushed yields higher [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Yields - The article suggests that the downward space for long-term Treasury yields may be limited, with the Fed's projections indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [7][8]. - The Fed's median forecast for the federal funds rate suggests a gradual decline, with long-term rates likely remaining above 3% [7][8]. - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations under this new paradigm [10].

Group 1 - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to influence the military industry sector, with investors keen on understanding the potential changes and future trends in this area [1] - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of 3.04% as of September 2, indicating a cooling off period after previous gains, attributed to profit-taking behavior following strong performance and the conclusion of interim reports [1][2] - The military industry is anticipated to see improved order demand as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins, with some companies already reporting significant orders, suggesting a recovery in demand [2] Group 2 - The military industry faced challenges last year due to pricing pressures, but these are gradually easing, and new revenue streams from sectors like commercial aerospace and military intelligence are emerging [2] - The long-term outlook for the military industry remains robust, driven by the strategic goal of building a world-class military, marking the beginning of a new golden era for the sector [2][3] - The military sector is transitioning from being driven by event-based expectations to a phase where fundamental performance will play a more significant role, indicating a stable upward trajectory with limited downside risk [3]