Group 1: Market Outlook - U.S. stock market may decline if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1] - Investors are optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts to support a weak labor market and alleviate U.S. debt burdens, leading to inflows into various risk assets [1] - The S&P 500 index has reached a historical peak, driven by tech giants, despite mixed inflation data affecting rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Record inflows into cash, stock, and bond funds were reported, with cash funds attracting $33 billion, stock funds $26.4 billion, and bond funds $25.9 billion [2] - Cryptocurrency and gold also saw significant inflows, with $4.5 billion and $2.6 billion respectively [2] - Global stock funds attracted over $26 billion in a week, with a total inflow of $576 billion this year, potentially marking the third-highest inflow year [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The current rate cut cycle is the fastest since 2020, with 88 cuts made by global central banks this year [2] - Discussions around the Fed's independence and inflation targets suggest a weakening dollar, which may benefit gold, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets [2] Group 4: Energy Market Insights - Oil and gas prices have dropped by 41% since March, reflecting geopolitical tensions [3] - Trump's geopolitical stance aims to lower U.S. energy costs, which may contribute to a bearish energy market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown volatility, recently bouncing back to $3,400 after dipping to $3,268, indicating a fluctuating market sentiment and the ongoing struggle between bullish and bearish investors [1] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has cooled significantly compared to the first quarter, with many investors waiting for gold prices to drop to around $700 to buy in, similar to those who previously waited for prices to reach $600 and $500 [1] Investor Behavior - Short sellers are actively seeking reasons to justify their positions, believing that if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, gold prices will plummet due to the principle of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [1]

Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike is influencing global foreign exchange markets, with potential opportunities and challenges for traders [1][2] - Historically, the dollar index tends to rise significantly before and after the initiation of an interest rate hike cycle, exerting pressure on a basket of major currencies [2] - The market is currently digesting the year-end rate hike expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon [2] Group 2 - Different currencies are experiencing significant divergence under the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, with major currencies like the euro and yen facing pressure due to ongoing domestic easing policies [2] - Emerging market currencies are under threat from capital outflows, which may lead to sharp declines in their exchange rates [2] - The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, with onshore markets remaining stable and offshore yuan fluctuations being manageable [2] Group 3 - IEXS is committed to empowering traders by providing comprehensive support in the complex market environment created by the interest rate hike [2][3] - The company offers deep market insights, real-time analysis of Federal Reserve policies, and economic data to anticipate market sentiment shifts [2] - IEXS provides a dual-direction mechanism for trading, allowing traders to capitalize on both rising and falling dollar scenarios [2][3] Group 4 - The company emphasizes the importance of professional analysis and robust tools to help traders navigate the heightened volatility and identify trends [3] - IEXS offers a smart risk control system that includes real-time alerts and automated profit and loss management tools to ensure capital safety [2][3] - The trading experience is enhanced by a stable, low-latency trading system that ensures precise execution during critical market movements [2][3]

Group 1 - Michael Hartnett's prediction of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" has partially materialized, with the S&P 500 index surging 5% following the announcement of a trade agreement framework [1] - Hartnett identifies the best and worst performing assets for 2025, with oil expected to decline by 12% and gold projected to rise by 21% [1] - Key levels to watch include a 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, a 100-point level on the dollar index, and a 5000-point level on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [1] Group 2 - A potential combination of rising bond yields and a declining dollar could lead to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with 5% yield seen as a critical threshold [2] - Emerging market stocks are predicted to be the core engine of a new bull market, supported by a weaker dollar, peaked bond yields, and a boost from the Chinese economy [2] - The "Riyadh Agreement" driven by Trump is key to lowering oil prices, facilitating increased production from Saudi Arabia and Russia in exchange for sanctions relief [2] Group 3 - Hartnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy, with a preference for a scenario of declining yields and deflation by 2025 [3] - The removal of the AAA rating by Moody's has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market [3]

随着贸易谈判持续出现进展，美股反弹无忧了？美银策略师Michael Hartnett不这么认为。 有"华尔街最准分析师"之称的Hartnett在最新研报中提出了三个关键交易策略： 预计市场将在贸易协议公布后"买预期、卖事实"，美联储被迫降息前维持做空 美元立场，以及在共和党协调预算正式确定未来减税/延长税收政策前继续做多5年期美国国债。 Hartnett认为，推动市场继续上涨的宏观因素，最有可能来自"三个C"：中美协议（ C hina deal）、全球降息（Rate C uts）以及强劲的消费需求（strong C onsumer）。 相反，最大的熊市风险则来自资产价格的去杠杆传染效应，尤其是在特朗普与鲍威尔的组合导致"长期利率失控"的情况下。 换句话说，如果市场不再愿意买入长期国债，导致利率飙升，就可能引发债务链条的压力。正如下图所示，今年第一季度全球债务总额已创下历史新高——达 到324万亿美元。在这种背景下，债券投资者集体"罢买"只是迟早的事。 贸易协议后股市或回落 战术上，Hartnett表示，虽然超卖的股票已经正确地提前反映了第二季度贸易协议/更低关税的预期，但他预计市场将会"买预期，卖事实"，并认 ...

Market Performance - On May 9, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.29% and a weekly decline of 0.16%, the S&P 500 down 0.07% with a weekly decline of 0.47%, and the Nasdaq flat with a weekly decline of 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel up 2%, while Nvidia, Netflix, Google, and Meta experienced slight declines [2] Investment Trends - According to Bank of America analysts, the rebound in the US stock market may have ended, as investors are in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, making further increases unlikely [5] - In the past four weeks, US stock markets saw redemptions totaling $24.8 billion, the largest in two years [5] Notable Stock Movements - Lyft surged over 28%, marking its best single-day performance since February 2024, while Insulet Corp. rose nearly 21%, its best performance since November 2022 [2] - Tesla's stock increased by 4.72%, closing at $298.26, with a market capitalization of $960.68 billion, adding $43.3 billion in value overnight [2] Currency and Commodity Updates - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2399, appreciating by 51 points from the previous trading day [12] - Gold prices rose, with spot gold up 0.60% to $3,325.49 per ounce, and New York gold up 0.77% to $3,331.46 per ounce [12] - International crude oil futures settled up over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.11 to $61.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up $1.07 to $63.91 per barrel, both showing weekly gains of over 4% [15] Trade Agreements - On May 8, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the UK, partially retracting tariffs in specific sectors and expanding market access for certain products [17] - The agreement includes a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [17] - Trump indicated that if the trade agreement is combined with tax cuts, it could be a good time to invest in stocks [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rally in U.S. stocks may be nearing its end, as the market transitions into a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phase, despite a strong reaction to trade easing announcements [1] - Since President Trump announced a pause on certain tariffs on April 9, the S&P 500 index has surged by 14%, indicating a strong market response to trade easing, yet it remains down 3.7% year-to-date, underperforming compared to international peers [1] - The recent moderate stance of the U.S. on global trade may have already been fully priced in by the market, suggesting limited further upside potential [1] Group 2 - Hartnett's views are supported by significant capital outflows, with approximately $24.8 billion withdrawn from the U.S. stock market over the past four weeks, marking the highest redemption level in two years [2] - Hartnett advises investors to favor bonds over stocks by 2025, and prefers international stocks over U.S. stocks, indicating a shift towards more defensive and potentially upward-moving markets [2] - He notes that U.S. stocks are in the late stages of a structural bear market compared to non-U.S. markets, providing clear guidance for investors seeking to protect their assets [2]