在宋清辉看来，美国政治极化、债务膨胀与财政失衡的阴影，或将会继续笼罩全球市场。对投资者而言，识别并管理美国的政治风险，已成为全 球资产配置的新的一堂"必修课"。 著名经济学家 宋清辉 【沪港通锦囊】管理"美国风险"成投资必修课 美国总统特朗普近日在白宫签署国会通过的临时拨款法案，标志着持续43天、创下历史纪录的联邦政府停摆暂告一段落。虽然市场因此迎来短暂的「复工喜 讯」，但这场政治僵局暴露出美国财政体系的长期隐患与政治极化的现实困境，也再次提醒全球投资者，美国并非绝对安全的投资目的地，其政治与财政风 险正逐步成为全球资本配置中无法忽视的变数。 笔者认为，美国政府「重开」并不意味着风险消除。注意到，此次通过的《持续拨款与延期法案》仅将联邦政府资金延至2026年1月30日，属于典型的过渡 性拨款。换言之，美国财政的「悬崖」只是被延后了。届时若两党在预算、债务上限、社会福利等议题上再陷僵局，美国仍可能面临新一轮停摆。不难发 现，财政谈判短期化、政治化的趋势，已使得美国政府运作的不确定性大大上升，同时也暴露了美国制度性治理的弱点，其风险不容忽视。 美国政治风险正转成投资风险 对市场而言，这种政治风险正逐渐转化为投资风 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang quoting 1333 CNY per gram, the highest price among gold stores [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores is maintained at 98 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold being the lowest at 1235 CNY per gram [1] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry price dropping by 10 CNY per gram to 646 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has slightly increased by 0.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The recycling prices for various brands are as follows: 949 CNY per gram for gold, 952 CNY for Cai Zi Gold, 941.30 CNY for Chow Sang Sang, 950.60 CNY for Chow Tai Fook, and 959.50 CNY for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - On Thursday, spot gold initially rose but later fell, reaching a high of 4244.94 USD per ounce before closing down 0.58% at 4170.84 USD per ounce [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 4163.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.17% [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to market expectations regarding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a noted sell-off across various markets including equities and cryptocurrencies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market was primarily driven by a psychological battle surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a dramatic price surge as short sellers rushed to cover their positions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On October 29, spot gold prices surged from a low of $3943.89 per ounce to a high of $4030.03, marking a single-day increase of over $70 [1]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [3]. - Following the Fed's announcement, Chairman Powell's comments about future rate cuts being "far from certain" caused market expectations for a December rate cut to drop from 92% to 62%, leading to a rise in the dollar index and a subsequent decline in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Consumer Sentiment - The gold market experienced significant fluctuations, with prices dropping below $4000 just days prior, reaching a low of $3971.38 on October 28, a 3.2% decline [5]. - In the domestic market, gold prices rebounded above 910 yuan per gram on October 29, after a notable drop in prices the previous day [5]. - Consumer sentiment has been affected, with individuals expressing anxiety over the rapid price changes, likening gold purchases to stock trading [5]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks have eased, contributing to reduced demand for gold as a safe haven, while technical factors indicated that gold was in an overbought state after a significant price increase [7]. - Central bank gold purchases continue to provide long-term support for gold prices, with global demand reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding future monetary policy add to market uncertainty, with two officials opposing the recent rate cut [9]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - The gold ETF market reflects changing investor sentiment, with the Shanghai Gold ETF seeing a nearly 1% increase and a turnover of 287 million yuan as of October 29 [11]. - Despite a cooling in investment demand for gold, consumer interest has surged as prices dipped below $4000, indicating a potential buying opportunity [11]. - Long-term investors are advised to maintain a gold allocation of 5-10% in their portfolios, with a strategy to gradually build positions if prices adjust to the $3800-$3850 range [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024. This led to significant market volatility, particularly in gold prices, which initially surged but then fell sharply due to market reactions to the Fed's statements [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, spot gold prices briefly rose to $4020 per ounce before dropping below $3980, illustrating the classic market behavior of "buy the rumor, sell the news" [3]. - Prior to the rate cut, market expectations for a reduction were extremely high, with a 98% probability, leading to a significant increase in gold prices from $3726 to a peak of $4400, an over 18% rise in just over a month [3]. Economic Context - The market environment was particularly sensitive, with gold prices having recently experienced a decline from $4400 to below $3900, a drop of $500, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and progress in U.S.-China trade talks [5]. - The volatility in gold prices was also attributed to technical indicators, with the RSI remaining above 70, indicating overbought conditions [7]. Investor Behavior - The Fed's hawkish signals regarding future rate cuts led to profit-taking among investors, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices shortly after the announcement [3][7]. - There is a notable divergence in investor sentiment, with some viewing the rate cut as a signal that bullish momentum has peaked, while others maintain a long-term bullish outlook based on expectations of continued monetary easing [9]. Interest Rates and Gold Prices - Despite the rate cut, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a critical factor affecting gold prices [11]. - The Fed's cautious stance on inflation may slow the pace of real interest rate declines, further complicating the outlook for gold [11]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks have been net buyers of gold, with global official gold reserves increasing by 10 tons in July 2025, and the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for ten consecutive months [7][15]. - This structural buying by central banks is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, although it may not fully offset short-term speculative selling [9][15]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts that gold prices will fluctuate between $3700 and $4050 by the end of 2025, with potential upward pressure from a weak dollar, despite possible limitations on price increases if the Fed's rate cuts are less aggressive than expected [13]. - Historical patterns indicate that gold typically experiences significant volatility following initial rate cuts, with an average volatility of 12% in the month following such events [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the upper limit of the federal funds rate from 4.25% to 4.00%, with 10 out of 12 voting members supporting the cut [1] Economic Data Summary - The U.S. core CPI year-on-year for September was 3%, down from 3.1%, but still above the Fed's target of 2% [5] - The U.S. job market has been performing poorly, with non-farm payrolls fluctuating between -1.3 million and 7.9 million since May, indicating a relative low since 2021 [5] Market Reaction Summary - Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index rose from 98.76 to 98.8, and during Powell's speech, it surged to a high of 99.29, indicating a "sell the fact" reaction to the rate cut [3] - Powell's emphasis on the uncertainty of further rate cuts in December negatively impacted market expectations for additional cuts, providing a boost to the dollar index [3] Technical Analysis Summary - The dollar index shows signs of a potential trend reversal, with a robust double bottom structure and a strong bullish closing after the rate cut, suggesting a possible new upward trend if resistance levels are breached [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate range to 3.85%-4% during the October meeting, influenced by poor employment data [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 99.3%, indicating strong consensus among investors [4]. - The decision comes after a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers, with the lowest figure reaching negative 13,000 and the latest at only 22,000 [1]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming press conference will focus on two main issues: the continuation of the rate cut policy and the impact of high tariffs on inflation [2]. - Powell's perspective on whether high tariffs will have a temporary or lasting effect on prices will be crucial for the future of the Fed's rate cut strategy [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The dollar index may experience a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, where the anticipated rate cut does not lead to a significant decline in the dollar [4]. - Technically, the dollar index shows signs of a potential trend reversal, having broken through previous bearish trend lines, with key resistance levels at 100 and 100.23 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a low of $3,886, marking a new low since October 6, indicating a bearish sentiment among mainstream investors towards short-term gold prices [1][5]. Market Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate in October remained stable at 4.35%, showing no significant change from September [3]. - The core CPI year-on-year for September was reported at 3%, slightly lower than the previous and expected values of 3.1%, suggesting stable inflation [3]. - The likelihood of a significant recession in the U.S. economy remains low given the stability in employment and inflation data [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 3.85% to 4% [5]. - Market expectations for the rate cut are high, with a 99% probability of occurrence, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, potentially causing an unusual rebound in the dollar index [5]. - The dollar index is currently at a relative low not seen in over three years, and it is expected to fluctuate between 95 and 100 as long as U.S. economic data does not show unexpected declines [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices peaked on October 20 and have since experienced significant declines, breaking below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $3,977 [7]. - The next key support level to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3,721, which has a high probability of being tested in the medium term given the strong downward momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant declines, with prices dropping over 30 yuan in a single day, falling below 2636 yuan per kilogram, causing panic among investors as their holdings lose value rapidly [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is primarily driven by a decrease in safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly with European leaders supporting peace negotiations regarding Ukraine [1] - The rebound of the US dollar index has added pressure on gold prices, as better-than-expected manufacturing data has renewed market confidence in the dollar [3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has not materialized, leading to a sell-off in gold as investors shift from buying on speculation to selling on reality [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have rapidly retreated from historical highs, with over 40 record highs followed by necessary corrections due to overbought conditions [3] - The surge in global gold ETF holdings to a five-year high indicates a sharp increase in liquidation demand, reflecting capital flight from the gold market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Banks have raised minimum investment thresholds and issued warnings against leveraged gold trading to protect inexperienced investors from potential debt traps [5] - Long-term investment in gold remains attractive, with central banks increasing their gold reserves and the proportion of gold in global foreign reserves reaching new highs [5] - For retail investors, specific products like the ten-gram accumulation gold from Bank of China and the twenty-gram auspicious gold from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are recommended for easier management [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, including a strong dollar and potential geopolitical stability, long-term forecasts remain bullish, with institutions predicting gold prices could reach $4,500 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026 [7] - Investment strategies should be flexible, with recommendations for a phased approach to buying gold, such as adding to positions as prices decline [9] - The importance of diversified asset allocation is emphasized, as gold, while valuable, is not a panacea for all investment challenges [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00-4.25% [1] - Following the rate cut, gold prices experienced significant volatility, with London spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,700 per ounce before dropping to around $3,654 per ounce [4] - The market behavior reflects a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" logic, as gold prices were driven up prior to the rate cut, leading to profit-taking afterward [5] Group 2 - The long-term support for gold remains intact, with over half of the Federal Reserve officials expecting two more rate cuts within the year, which may continue to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Central bank demand for gold is strong, with the People's Bank of China increasing its reserves to 74.02 million ounces, and Deutsche Bank predicting gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [7] - In the stock market, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are showing divergence, with growth sectors outperforming, particularly in the tech sector following the Fed's rate cut [7][9] Group 3 - The response of the A-share market is complex, as it may attract northbound capital inflows for tech growth sectors, but is also heavily influenced by domestic economic fundamentals [9] - The recent CPI decline in China indicates that external benefits need to align with internal policies for effective market support [9] - Following the Fed's rate cut, domestic banks are adjusting their deposit rates, with HSBC lowering its one-year rate for USD deposits to 3.5% [10] Group 4 - Investment strategies need to be adjusted in light of the Fed's rate cut, with recommendations for a "laddered deposit" strategy to balance high interest rates and liquidity [13] - The impact of the Fed's rate cut extends beyond three asset classes, potentially lowering monthly payments for those with floating-rate mortgages and benefiting the import sector due to RMB appreciation [15] - The global easing cycle may lead to increased commodity prices, affecting domestic living costs for items like gasoline and plastic products [15]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]