开源证券认为2025年以来基建投资和建筑新签规模持续走弱，细分板块景气度出现分化，在政府化债和 企业降负债工作的持续推进下，建筑板块有望迎来基本面、政策面和估值的共振，建议关注行业在建筑 出海、城市更新、数字化建设、电力工程以及化债等领域的边际变化，持续看好估值处于低位、业绩稳 健的建筑央企龙头及区域龙头。 截至2025年12月10日 14点06分，A股三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数跌0.35%，深证成指涨0.14%，创业 板指跌0.23%。基建50ETF（159635）上涨0.73%，最新报价1.107元，成分股四川路桥领涨3.95%，山推 股份上涨3.83%，杭叉集团上涨2.83%，徐工机械上涨2.75%，中粮科工上涨2.71%。 从估值层面来看，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.55倍，处于近10年31.98%的 分位，与全A其他板块横向比较，估值处在相对低位。 ...

截至2025年12月5日14:44 ，A股三大指数集体上涨，上证指数涨0.67%，深证成指涨0.98%，创业板指涨 1.25%。基建50ETF（159635）上涨1.26%，最新报价1.122元，盘中换手率7.5%。成分股方面涨跌互 现，上海港湾领涨10%，振华重工上涨5.72%，惠通科技上涨4.81%，艾迪精密上涨3.38%，徐工机械上 涨3.26%；四川路桥领跌2.53%，宏润建设下跌1.05%，安徽建工下跌0.41%，中力股份下跌0.37%，浦东 建设下跌0.12%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 从近期表现来看，基建50ETF连续5个交易日收阳，今日有望冲击6连阳。资金方面，近3个交易日资金 连续流入ETF。 估值方面，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.64倍，不足10倍，处于近10年 33.21%的分位，即估值低于近10年66.79%以上的时间，建议投资人关注低估值品种。 ...

证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251201 从微观出发的风格轮动月度跟踪 202512 2025 年 12 月 01 日 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的风格轮动月度 跟踪 202511》 2025-11-03 ◼ 2025 年 11 月风格轮动模型收益率为-0.71%，相对基准超额 2.13%。 ◼ 2025 年 12 月最新风格择时方向为：价值、大市值、动量、低波。 ◼ 2025 年 12 月风格择时最新持仓为： 表1：2025 年 12 月风格择时最新持仓 ◼ 风险提示：模型所有统计结果均基于历史数据，未来市场可能发生重大 变化；单因子的收益可能存在较大波动，实际应用需结合资金管理、风 险控制等方法；模型测算可能存在相对误差，不构成实际投资建议。 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in the current market environment, suggesting that investors should consider gradual positioning in sectors benefiting from marginal improvements in economic conditions in 2025 [2][3] - A significant rebalancing has occurred in global stock markets, with funds shifting from previously high-performing technology sectors to relatively undervalued sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing [2][3] - The report highlights the positive outlook for mid-cap blue-chip companies in the machinery sector, driven by both policy support and fundamental improvements [5] Market Strategy - The current market is characterized by a "stable internal and external" dynamic, with technology assets experiencing a pullback due to concerns over an "AI bubble" [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip companies in sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, which have shown improved capital returns in Q3 [2][3] - Suggested ETFs for investment include the Consumer ETF (159928) and Infrastructure 50 ETF (516970/159635) [2][3] Industry Strategy - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and fundamental support, with a focus on nurturing quality enterprises and specialized industrial clusters [5] - The forklift industry saw a 14.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to October 2025, with exports rising by 15.5%, indicating a recovery in both domestic and international demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance, providing opportunities for companies with advantages in hydraulic components and five-axis machine tools to capture both traditional equipment upgrades and emerging market opportunities [5] Theme Strategy - The report discusses the launch of Nano2, which introduces a reasoning-driven visual generation capability, marking a shift from diffusion-based generation to a more intelligent image generation paradigm [6] - Companies with a comprehensive AI pathway, integrating hardware, research, models, and application scenarios, are expected to benefit significantly from advancements in AI applications [6] - Relevant ETFs for this theme include the Media ETF (512980/159805) and the China Concept Internet ETF (513220/159605) [6]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on defensive strategies and opportunities for low-cost positioning [2][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index is holding above 3900 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext are at the lower end of the fluctuation range since September [8] - The technology sector, particularly the STAR 50 index, has fallen below its fluctuation range, indicating a weak market sentiment [8] Industry Strategy - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to undergo a valuation recovery followed by performance-driven growth, with a focus on gradual positioning [3][8] - The sector has seen a significant improvement in capital returns, particularly in non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, machinery, and some consumer goods [8] - The consumer staples sector is showing signs of performance improvement, with expectations for a performance bottom in 2026 [8] Thematic Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is gaining a "growth" attribute due to financial characteristics and AI demand, enhancing its appeal [4][8] - Precious metals are becoming increasingly attractive as global central banks diversify reserves amid rising U.S. fiscal deficits and weakening dollar credit [8] - Industrial metals are benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and increased demand from AI and new energy sectors [8] - New demand drivers in small metals, particularly lithium, are expected to lead to a cyclical reversal [8]

Market Strategy - The current market is expected to experience limited index growth, with a judgment of "fluctuating up and down, sideways consolidation, slightly strengthening" [7] - Mid-cap blue chips are anticipated to rise again after four years, presenting investment opportunities in manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [7] - Related ETFs include 中证 500ETF (159922) and 中证 1000ETF (512100) [7] Chemical Industry - Global chemical supply is expected to contract due to high costs and aging equipment, leading to a structural adjustment in the supply chain [7] - European chemical sales account for approximately 13% of the global market, but high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes are causing continued capacity exit [7] - Domestic production progress has slowed, and with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the chemical sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle [7] - Related stock: 万华化学 (600309, Buy) [7] - Related ETF: 化工 ETF (159870/516020) [7] Financial Technology - Hong Kong's "FinTech 2030" strategy marks a shift from application-focused development to a more systemic, forward-looking, and ecological approach [7] - This strategy emphasizes the collaborative development of data, AI, resilience, and tokenization, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of mainland financial technology [7] - Related ETFs include 金融科技 ETF (159851/515720/159103) and 香港证券 ETF (513090) [7]

Market Strategy - The report suggests a cautious outlook on index movements, emphasizing the potential for mid-cap stocks to uncover real investment opportunities [2][8] - It highlights that while corporate earnings are supported, sustained outperformance is challenging, and market style may shift towards mid-cap blue chips in the consumer, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [8] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, consumption driven by home scenarios is leading growth, with resilient performance from smart products [3][8] - Data from the "Double 11" shopping festival indicates strong overall performance in the home appliance industry, with significant growth in brands like Midea and Haier, and a notable 12.5% increase in transaction share on Tmall [8] Thematic Strategy - The military industry is highlighted with the commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier, marking a significant advancement in military capabilities and benefiting related enterprises in the new production capacity chain [4][8] - The report identifies specific companies and ETFs related to the defense sector that are expected to benefit from this advancement [8]

Market Performance - The market experienced narrow fluctuations on August 8, with all three major indices slightly declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.38% [1] - Despite the overall market decline, several ETFs related to construction materials, photovoltaic, and infrastructure sectors saw gains exceeding 2% [1] ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - E Fund Construction Materials ETF increased by 2.18%, closing at 0.702 [2] - Leading Photovoltaic ETF rose by 2.05%, with a price of 0.497 [2] - Infrastructure ETF also gained 2.05%, closing at 1.146 [2] - Infrastructure 50 ETF increased by 2.04%, closing at 1.103 [2] Industry Outlook - Experts predict that as Chinese engineering machinery companies continue to globalize, their competitiveness in overseas markets is expected to enhance, leading to an increase in market share [2] - The domestic engineering machinery market is anticipated to benefit from the "two new" policy, which is expected to drive ongoing demand for equipment upgrades. Additionally, growth in water conservancy and municipal sectors is likely to support a continued recovery in domestic engineering machinery demand [2]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, capturing industry trends through diffusion indices; Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion indices of various industries, ranking them accordingly. The formula for the diffusion index is not explicitly provided; Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[24][25][28] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process minute-level volume and price data, aiming to capture trading information; Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factors, which are derived from the deep learning network's analysis of trading data. The specific formula for GRU factors is not provided; Evaluation: The model has performed well in short cycles but has shown general performance in longer cycles[31][32][35] - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.89%, Excess Return Since July: -3.47%, Excess Return YTD: -0.45%[28] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 4.27%, Excess Return Since July: 1.34%, Excess Return YTD: -4.25%[35] - Factor Name: Diffusion Index; Construction Idea: The factor is based on the momentum of industry prices, capturing upward trends; Construction Process: The factor is calculated by observing the weekly and monthly changes in the diffusion indices of various industries. The specific formula is not provided; Evaluation: The factor has shown varying performance, with significant drawdowns during market reversals[24][25][28] - Factor Name: GRU Factor; Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks, capturing trading information from minute-level volume and price data; Construction Process: The factor is calculated by ranking industries based on the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The specific formula is not provided; Evaluation: The factor has performed well in short cycles but has shown general performance in longer cycles[31][32][35] - Diffusion Index Factor, Top Industries: Comprehensive Finance (1.0), Steel (1.0), Non-Bank Finance (0.999), Comprehensive (0.998), Non-Ferrous Metals (0.997), Home Appliances (0.995)[25] - GRU Factor, Top Industries: Banking (3.3), Real Estate (0.58), Oil & Petrochemicals (-1.26), Textile & Apparel (-1.73), Light Manufacturing (-2.49), Electric Power & Utilities (-2.83)[32]

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, planning to build five hydropower stations, with an annual power generation capacity equivalent to three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, which is expected to stimulate related theme ETFs [1] Group 2 - Various ETFs including construction materials ETF, infrastructure 50 ETF, and chemical ETF have seen increases this week, with over 1 billion yuan net inflow into 43 funds, including steel ETF and construction materials ETF, which have net inflows of 14.24 billion yuan and 11.05 billion yuan respectively [2] - The construction materials ETF tracks the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index, covering sectors such as cement (44.8%), decoration materials (35.3%), and glass fiber (10%), with key stocks benefiting from the Yarlung Tsangpo River project [2] - The infrastructure ETF tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index, encompassing the infrastructure and engineering machinery industry chain [3] - The steel ETF tracks the CSI Steel Index, covering iron ore mining, steel smelting, and processing, aiming to reflect the overall performance of steel-related companies in the A-share market [4] - The chemical ETF tracks the CSI Subdivided Chemical Industry Theme Index, covering various chemical sectors, with leading stocks including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Shares [4] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to optimize the industry landscape, with leading companies likely to see a turning point in profitability, particularly in sectors like steel, glass fiber, and new energy chains, which are currently at historical lows in profitability and capital expenditure [5] - The market is experiencing significant activity with daily trading volume reaching nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, driven by liquidity and policy deployment, with optimistic expectations being rapidly priced in [6] - The main market themes currently revolve around "anti-involution" and large infrastructure projects, with opportunities identified in power equipment, resource products, and construction materials sectors [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to bring positive changes to the industry chain, potentially reshaping competitive dynamics and leading to price recovery in some high-end manufacturing sectors [7]