公司近期上调2025-2027 年未来三年分红率由30%至50%，并向香港联交所递交了海外业务分拆上市的 申请文件。我们认为，当前市场对海大集团国内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间仍有预期差，公司 2025 年国内饲料主业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出海持续高增长， 港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点推荐国内长期超额优势向分红价值 转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 国内主业优势稳固，自由现金流、分红率有望回升 （1）公司国内饲料主业竞争力进一步放大，我们预测，海大集团2025 年国内饲料外销量增长约20%， 大幅超出行业约6%的增速，市占率加速提升；在激烈的市场竞争下，公司饲料吨毛利长期韧性突出， 以2015 年为基期，25H1 主要饲料上市公司饲料吨毛利下降190 元，海大集团仅微降6 元。我们认为， 公司2030 年实现国内4430 万吨饲料产销量目标的确定性不断增强，且随公司饲料组织架构进一步专业 化，公司饲料单吨费用与折旧在2025年取得明显边际进展后仍有优化空间。（2）从自由现金流角度 看，公司国内饲料板块新增资本 ...

证券研究报告 海大集团 (002311 CH) 国内价值属性增强，海外持续高成长 2026 年 1 月 27 日│中国内地 饲料 公司近期上调 2025-2027 年未来三年分红率由 30%至 50%，并向香港联交 所递交了海外业务分拆上市的申请文件。我们认为，当前市场对海大集团国 内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间仍有预期差，公司 2025 年国内饲料主 业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出海持续高 增长，港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点 推荐国内长期超额优势向分红价值转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺 资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 国内主业优势稳固，自由现金流、分红率有望回升 （1）公司国内饲料主业竞争力进一步放大，我们预测，海大集团 2025 年 国内饲料外销量增长约 20%，大幅超出行业约 6%的增速，市占率加速提升； 在激烈的市场竞争下，公司饲料吨毛利长期韧性突出，以 2015 年为基期， 25H1 主要饲料上市公司饲料吨毛利下降 190 元，海大集团仅微降 6 元。我 们认为，公司 2030 年实现国内 4430 万吨饲料产销量目标的确定性不断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in feed sales and profitability from futures hedging in the pig farming sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 58.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.64 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 33.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.36 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year [1]. Sales Growth - The company's feed sales volume increased by 26% year-on-year to 13.65 million tons in H1 2025, with significant growth in aquatic feed (16%), pig feed (43%), and poultry feed (24%) [2]. - The overseas feed business maintained a high growth rate of 40%, with gross margin rising by 2.54 percentage points to 15.1%, significantly higher than the average gross margin of the company's main business [2]. Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its feed business in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where there is significant potential for growth in meat, egg, and milk consumption [3]. - The company aims to achieve overseas feed sales of 7.2 million tons by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20%, and domestic feed sales of about 39.3 million tons, with a CAGR of around 10% [3]. Valuation and Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts of 5.02 billion yuan, 5.48 billion yuan, and 7.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The target price has been raised to 66.4 yuan, corresponding to a 22 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting better-than-expected feed sales growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 58.8 billion RMB in 2025H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.64 billion RMB, up 24.2% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in profitability is primarily driven by gains from pig futures hedging and strong growth in overseas feed business, with domestic aquaculture and pig feed businesses showing signs of recovery [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued domestic and international growth in the feed business, leading to an upward revision of the target price to 66.4 RMB, reflecting a 22x PE valuation for 2025 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025H1, the company's feed external sales increased by 26% year-over-year to 13.65 million tons, with significant growth in aquaculture feed (16%), pig feed (43%), and poultry feed (24%) [2]. - The overseas feed business maintained a high growth rate of 40%, with a gross margin increase of 2.54 percentage points to 15.1%, significantly higher than the average gross margin of the main business [2]. Market Outlook - The company is actively expanding into the feed markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with a target of achieving 7.2 million tons in overseas feed sales by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [3]. - The domestic feed business is expected to recover starting in 2025, supported by rising prices in aquaculture due to declining stocking volumes and a rebound in pig inventory [3]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 5.02 billion RMB, 5.48 billion RMB, and 7.04 billion RMB, respectively [4][10]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.02 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.69% [10][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company set a target for 2024 feed sales growth of 3 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 12%. In the first quarter, the year-on-year growth exceeded 25%, surpassing the planned growth rate. The company's performance in the first quarter was better than expected, aided by profits from pig futures hedging. The price of aquatic products is expected to recover by the end of 2024, and the overall price trend in 2025 remains strong, which will drive domestic aquatic feed growth. The long-term potential for feed exports is significant, supporting the company's main business performance growth. The projected main business performance for 2025 and 2026 is 3.85 billion and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a valuation of 10 billion yuan for the breeding business, corresponding to current main business valuations of 21X and 18X, respectively, and the company is continuously recommended [2][4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 114.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.3%. In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.0% [4][9] Feed Segment - The company plans to sell 24.42 million tons of feed in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with poultry feed, pig feed, and aquatic feed growing by 12%, -3%, and 11%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, feed sales reached 5.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with poultry feed, pig feed, and aquatic feed growing by 20%, 35%, and 20%, respectively. The overseas sales volume increased by 40% year-on-year [9] Breeding Business - The company plans to sell 6 million pigs in 2024, contributing 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan to performance. In the first quarter of 2025, approximately 1.6 million pigs were sold, with the self-breeding cost reduced to around 13 yuan per kilogram, contributing about 600 million yuan to profits [9] Aquaculture and Seedling Business - The aquaculture segment is expected to recover due to the rebound in fish prices by the end of 2024, and the company has actively reduced production to minimize losses. The seedling business faced delays in stocking due to adverse weather, with profits remaining stable in the first quarter of 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 114.6 billion RMB in 2024 and 25.63 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with year-over-year changes of -1.3% and +10.6% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.5 billion RMB and 1.28 billion RMB, reflecting year-over-year increases of +64.3% and +49.0% [1][4] - The primary drivers for the high profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 are the profitability from pig farming hedging and the rapid growth of overseas feed business. The report is optimistic about overseas expansion, industry recovery, and cost advantages supporting feed sales growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the company's feed sales volume increased by 8.0% and 25% year-over-year, reaching 24.4 million tons and 5.95 million tons respectively. The overseas feed sales maintained a growth rate of around 40% [2][3] - The company achieved over 1 billion RMB in profit from pig farming through futures hedging in 2024, turning a profit of approximately 230 RMB per head. The overseas feed business also saw significant profit growth, estimated at 300-400 million RMB year-over-year [2] Market Opportunities - The company is actively expanding into the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America feed markets, with a solid foundation in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Egypt. There is still potential for growth in per capita meat, egg, and milk consumption in certain countries [3] - The domestic business is expected to recover starting in 2025, supported by a rebound in fish and shrimp prices due to a decline in aquaculture seedling volume and a recovery in pig inventory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 5.02 billion RMB and 5.48 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and introduces a new forecast of 7.04 billion RMB for 2027. The target price is raised to 63.4 RMB, corresponding to a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [4][8]