Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]

2024年宠物食品企业(选取乖宝宠物（301498）、中宠股份（002891）、佩蒂股份（300673）、下同)总 营收114亿元，同比增长20%。分公司看，乖宝宠物2024年营收同比增长21%，中宠股份2024年营收同 比增长19%，佩蒂股份2024年营收同比增长18%。整体看，宠物食品企业在海外业务稳健发展的同时国 内自主品牌业务高增带动了整体的收入快速增长。2025Q1宠物食品企业总营收29亿元，同比增长23%; 其中乖宝宠物海外业务稳健发展，国内业务高增带动收入增长，中宠股份海外新客持续贡献增量+国内 业务快速发展支撑收入高增。 国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，重点关注消费成长类标的投资机会。2025年二季度生猪供应或将 保持宽松局面，该行预计猪价阶段性相对低位震荡，重点推荐成本优势明显，出栏兑现度高的优秀养殖 企业。二季度生猪及水产存栏/存塘有望增加，需求恢复有望带动猪料和水产料市场扩容。此外，海外 饲料市场空间广阔，国内饲企积极出海寻找增量，未来发展值得期待。此外，国内宠物行业或仍处于增 长动能充沛，国产替代进口，产品不断升级阶段，重点关注国内发展潜力大的宠物食品与健康企业。 国联民生证券 ...

[分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 电话：18502142884 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com [相Ta关bl报e_告CompanyReport] 2024-10-29 [Ta大ble北_Sto农ckN（ameRptType] 002385） 公司点评 出栏量有望达到 800 万头，完全成本降至 12.9 元 | [T投a资ble评_R级an：k]买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-06 | | [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）Data] | 4.12 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 5.26/3.70 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,300 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,524 | | 流通股比例（%） | 81.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 177 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 145 | 2024 年，公司饲料外销量 540.55 万吨，同比下降 7.6%。其中，猪料 外销量 427.6 万吨，同比减少 8.2%；反刍料外销量 60.28 万吨，整体 保持平稳；水产料外 ...

Group 1: Core Breeding and Sales - The company operates three core breeding farms and four binary breeding farms, ranking first nationally in Duroc pig breeding for several years [1] - The company focuses on balanced breeding to improve growth speed and reproductive performance, aiming to shorten the time to market and enhance barn utilization [1] - The company anticipates that the current price of piglets will remain stable until October, with a low likelihood of prices falling below cost during the off-season [1] Group 2: Feed Sales and Market Dynamics - The feed distributor primarily sells pig feed to local smallholders, with sales volume around 1,200 tons per month, peaking at 1,400-1,500 tons [1] - The distributor notes a decline in self-breeding households due to stricter environmental regulations [1] Group 3: Pig Raising and Market Conditions - The contract farmer in Sichuan raises 7,000 pigs across two farms, with a total raising fee of approximately 220 yuan per pig [2] - The farmer highlights significant issues with piglet diarrhea affecting growth rates, leading to a desire for heavier pigs among both smallholders and larger farms [2] - A breeding company with a 200-head boar station believes piglet prices will remain high, with traditional seasonal price increases expected [2] Group 4: Trade and Supply Chain - A trading company focuses on pig trade, moving 5-6 trucks of pigs to slaughterhouses daily, with peak volumes reaching 30-40 trucks [3] - The company observes a stable price for piglets, predicting limited price increases but a potential decline after the end of the second fattening phase [3] - Another trading firm has shifted focus to piglet trade and reports increased supply of heavier pigs post-Qingming Festival, while anticipating a potential price drop for piglets [3] Group 5: Fattening and Market Impact - A company with 10,000 fattening pigs has cleared its stock, with an average weight of 120 kg per pig, and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.5-2.6 [3] - The company indicates that if prices for second fattening pigs drop below 7 yuan/kg, it will consider restocking or fattening pigs [3] - The company believes that second fattening will significantly impact this year's pig market [3]

证券研究报告 外部环境多变，农业防御优势凸显 农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略 陈雪丽（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520030001 邮箱：chenxueli@kysec.cn 王高展（联系人） 证书编号：S0790123060055 邮箱：wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 朱本伦（联系人） 证书编号：S0790124060020 邮箱：zhubenlun@kysec.cn 2025年5月5日 核心观点 1. 生猪：内外围共振利多猪价，生猪防御优势凸显投资逻辑强化 国内供需看，步入2025Q2生猪需求边际向好，猪价中枢有支撑且逐步进入阶段性上行期；外围看，关税驱动饲料原料价格上涨及 进口肉类成本抬升。内外围共振利多猪价，生猪板块在关税等宏观冲击防御优势凸显且投资逻辑强化，建议积极配置。推荐标的： 温氏股份、牧原股份、巨星农牧；受益标的：神农集团、华统股份、天康生物、京基智农、唐人神等。 2.白鸡：需求韧性十足禽流感扰动再起，白鸡低位配置价值显现 中美关税政策扰动及海外禽流感不确定性增加我国祖代白羽鸡引种不确定性及引种成本，国内宏观经济回暖白羽肉鸡消费边际向 好，多因素驱动下白鸡低位逻辑边际改善， ...