Core Insights - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone, marking the largest decline since October of the previous year [2][3] Group 1: Profit Trends - The manufacturing sector's profit growth rate increased by 5.4% year-on-year from January to May, outperforming the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises by 6.5 percentage points [2] - State-owned enterprises experienced a profit decline of 7.4%, while private enterprises saw a profit increase of 3.4% during the same period [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The decline in profits is attributed to external environmental shocks, continuous decreases in the Producer Price Index (PPI), and insufficient domestic demand [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable exceeded 70 days, indicating significant asset turnover pressure within the industrial sector [3] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - State-owned enterprises were more adversely affected by tariffs compared to private enterprises, with state-owned profits declining by 18.1% in May [3][4] - The rising costs due to tariffs have eroded profits, as some enterprises bear the tariff costs themselves, while others face supply chain adjustment costs [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Performance - The profits of the large equipment manufacturing sector surged by 60%-120%, driven by new production capabilities and supportive policies [2] - Downstream industries such as entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing faced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively in May [6]

6月16日，国家统计局发布2025年5月工业生产数据，工业生产保持较快增长。数据显示，5月份，全国 规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，保持较快增长；剔除季节因素后，环比增长0.61%。 从三大门类看，制造业增长6.2%，高于全部规模以上工业0.4个百分点；采矿业增长5.7%，电力、热 力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长2.2%。从行业和产品看，在41个大类行业中，35个行业增加值同比增 长，增长面为85.4%；在统计的623种主要工业产品中，326种产品产量实现增长，增长面为52.3%。从 累计看，1—5月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.3%。 从高频数据来看，重点钢厂钢材产量和需求有所回落，供需两端均有不同程度增速放缓，工业部门产出 缺口在二季度重新走弱，企业对未来生产经营预期不确定性上升。此外，5月份，规模以上工业企业产 销率为95.9%，同比下降0.8个百分点；前5月规模以上工业企业出口交货值累计同比增长4.1%。马泓认 为，这表明内地传统工业部门生产下行压力逐渐增大。 民生证券研究院首席经济学家陶川表示，从工业生产来看，出口景气度出现分化。陶川进一步分析，相 较于大型企业，小型企业在利用美国海关的" ...

Economic Overview - In May, industrial output and service sector growth rates were around 6%, indicating a GDP growth rate of over 5% for Q2 is likely[1] - Consumer retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, driven by policies like "trade-in" and the early start of the "618" shopping festival[5] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival's early launch and "trade-in" policies significantly boosted retail sales, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93%[5] - However, the sustainability of consumer growth is uncertain as reliance on policy support may weaken, and there are signs of demand recovery issues[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% in May, with significant declines in non-metallic and chemical manufacturing sectors[6] - Export delivery value growth for large enterprises dropped sharply from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, indicating a more significant impact from tariffs compared to small enterprises[2] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area all saw year-on-year declines in May, with first-tier city housing prices also falling[7] - New policies are being implemented to stabilize the market, including the removal of restrictions in key cities[7] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth rates slightly declined, with broad infrastructure growth at 9.2% and narrow infrastructure growth at 5.1% in May[6] - Despite the slowdown, project approvals by the National Development and Reform Commission remain at historically high levels, suggesting ongoing infrastructure investment intentions[4]