12 月制造业 PMI 继续上行，有色金属价格普遍上涨 ——行业景气观察（0107） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 工业金属价格普遍上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨，12 月重卡 销量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，存储器价格持续上涨，11 月北美 PCB 出货量与订单量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，猪鸡价格上行， 中药材价格上涨。节前备货需求拉动 12 月制造业和非制造业 PMI 均回暖。推荐 景气较高或有改善的有色、化工、电力设备、养殖业、存储器、半导体、非银等。 ❑【本周关注】节前备货需求推动生产回暖，采购和库存均有提升，企业生产经营活 动预期修复，共同支撑制造业和非制造业 PMI 改善。结构上特征主要有：1）节前 备货需求推动生产端延续修复，采购量和生产指数环比上升至荣枯线以上，需求受 出口韧性增长，上游原材料价格上涨和企业备货需求推动，内外需订单均有回升， 价格在宏观流动性宽松、下游需求旺盛、供需紧平衡的驱动下持续景气区间；2） 制造业大类行业中，算力需求旺盛驱动核心硬件价格上涨，高技术制造高位上行， 新兴领域需求景气、企业节前备货 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - During the New Year's holiday, inter-regional mobility increased by 19.62% year-on-year, with a total domestic travel expenditure of CNY 847.89 billion, up 6.35% from 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.12%[1][12] - The average ticket price for domestic flights reached CNY 684.6, a 9.8% increase compared to 2025, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand[16] - Dining consumption showed robust growth, with key provinces reporting increases of 18% in Zhejiang and 36.5% in Nanjing, while overall dining consumption in Guangxi rose by 5.8%[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating improved economic conditions[2][18] - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8%, a 3.2 percentage point increase, benefiting from favorable weather and ongoing policy support[23] - The service sector's PMI was at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, indicating mixed performance across industries[24] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "Two New" policies are expected to provide support for stable consumption, despite a potential mild contraction in funding scale for 2026[26] - International commodity prices are rising, which may pressure corporate profits and indirectly affect employment, potentially limiting demand recovery[26] - The government has initiated a CNY 295 billion investment plan for key projects, including the Guangzhou New Airport, to stabilize investment growth[26]

在听取市相关部门和板块政策性资金项目申报储备、2026年省市重大项目编报情况汇报后，李忠 军指出，积极争取政策资金和重大项目，对于扩大有效投资、提振发展信心具有重要作用。各级各部门 要进一步增强紧迫感和责任感，抢抓国家政策机遇的窗口期，找准承接落地的突破口，持续加大项目和 资金谋划争取力度，切实助推高质量发展取得更大成效。 1月4日，代市长李忠军专题研究政策性资金项目申报、重大项目编报工作时强调，要全面落实中 央和省市委经济工作会议精神，按照市委十五届十二次全会部署要求，靠前发力、主动作为，抢抓政策 机遇，精准谋划项目，为高质量发展积蓄强劲动能。市领导霍慧萍、许峰、孙百军、张蕴参加。 李忠军强调，要精准把握政策措施，密切关注超长期特别国债、中央预算内投资、地方政府专项债 等政策性资金投向，认真研究"两重""两新"等一揽子最新政策，积极主动向上沟通汇报，努力争取更多 指导支持，加快把政策红利转化为发展优势。要科学高效谋划项目，牢固树立"项目为王"理念，扎实做 好项目立项、规划等前期工作，提升项目成熟度和申报成功率，确保更多项目纳入国家、省"盘子"。要 持续强化政策宣传，聚焦"两重""两新"政策落实，主动深入走基 ...

1月4日，2026年全省重大项目建设暨制造业高质量发展动员部署会在开封市召开。这场关键会议，至关 重要，为全年工作定下基调。 2025年，河南经济稳中向好，为"十四五"画上圆满句号。但成绩属于过去。"十五五"时期，外部环境风 急浪高，内部改革步入深水区，河南今后该怎么走？ 项目落地的速度，体现着发展的决心。元旦期间，位于郑州航空港经济综合实验区的惠科新型显示基地 一片繁忙。这个智能制造基地，从开工到投产仅用180天，创下行业纪录。"1月份，我们已接到38万台 订单，现在每天出货超一万台。"基地负责人说。 这不是个例。新年伊始，河南多地重点项目全力冲刺"开门红"。它们，对经济拉动有多大？ 太行山深处，九峰山抽水蓄能电站，一个"身价"超130亿元的"超级充电宝"正在抓紧建设。这个国家"十 四五"重点工程，建成后每年可节约标准煤15.6万吨、减少二氧化碳排放68.85万吨。对当地来说，它带 来的远不止电力。项目还带动了配套的砂石厂、钢管厂，激活上下游产业，提供数千岗位，为地方经济 注入实打实的动力。 抢抓一季度，夺取"开门红"，不仅为全年打基础、攒底气，更为"十五五"整场马拉松奠定步调。当重大 项目密集落地，夯实的 ...

各地加力拼经济，全力实现一季度良好开局。 2026年的第一个工作日，上海召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会，湖北召开科技创新大会，辽宁发布 《辽宁省大力优化营商环境行动方案（2026版）》……各地加力拼经济。 与此同时，近期"两重""两新"资金提前下达、国家创业投资引导基金启航、"购在中国"暨新春消费季启 动，稳增长政策密集加力，以更大力度促消费、稳投资，全力实现一季度良好开局。 国家发改委新闻发言人李超日前在发布会上表示，抢抓时间窗口，主动靠前发力，全力做好政策衔接、 工作衔接，加快推动消费、投资、产业、民生、改革开放、绿色发展等领域系列政策出台实施。 "两新"政策迎来优化 今年的"国补"在支持范围上进行了优化，进一步集中资源，着力提升覆盖人群广、带动效应强的重点消 费品的"得补率"。补贴集中在汽车、家电、数码和智能产品等方面。 国家信息中心研究员魏琪嘉分析，新一轮"国补"在实施机制上也更好地体现了统一性与特殊性的有机结 合。比如在消费品以旧换新领域，按照全国统一大市场建设的要求，有一些明确的全国统一的补贴标 准。此外，通知中还强调，如用于实施智能家居产品，具体的补贴品类、补贴标准由地方结合实际自主 合理制 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

有没有发现，2025年的聊天有点"费词"？ 当你听到朋友说，周末要去体验一把"票根经济"，下半年准备"投资于人"，公司正在向"新质生产力"转型——这些突然流行起来的词，像一套新的社交货 币，正在重塑我们的对话方式。 它们不是凭空产生的。 每一个热词的背后，都有一张经济蓝图、一次产业跃迁、一场生活革命，或是一种集体情绪的浓缩。当"深度求索"取代"弯道超 车"，当"韧性"成为年度汉字，变化的远不止是词汇表，更是这个时代底层的生存策略与价值排序。 我们整理了十个2025年你躲不掉的经济热词。它们像十个棱镜，折射出中国正在经历的十场"深刻转变"。读懂它们，你读懂的不仅是政策和趋势，更是我 们即将身处的未来。 如果用一个词概括2025年中国经济政策的顶层设计，那无疑是"新质生产力"。这一概念已从一年前的战略蓝图，全面转化为本年度的核心"施工图"。它不 再停留于理论探讨，而是以前所未有的清晰度与执行力，进入各省市的产业目录、投资地图与考核指标。 北京大学光华管理学院的研究显示，以新质生产力为导向的产业，其全要素生产率增速已达到传统行业的 2.3倍，成为拉升经济增长质量的关键引擎。 与宏观战略相配套的，是2025年精准落地 ...

"两重两新"政策督导组是宣汉县纪委监委为保障国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设（"两 重"）、大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新（"两新"）政策落地而成立的专项监督机构。旨在通过 政治监督推动惠民政策精准直达群众，确保政策红利有效释放。 在保障重大项目高效落地方面，宣汉县纪委监委搭建"县纪委监委统筹+派驻机构跟进+乡镇纪委 联动"的三级联动监督体系，督促县级相关部门集中开展风险隐患专项排查和依法依规加快事项审 批、打通项目推进堵点等，促进项目拉满建设"进度条"。在惠民政策落实方面，宣汉县纪委监委 聚焦家电以旧换新、汽车置换等促消费政策，构建"全流程跟进、闭环式督导"机制，让政策红利 精准直达群众；在乡村振兴方面，宣汉县纪委监委协调有关部门协助村集体成立公司规范劳务合 同，防范法律风险，协调金融机构，为设备更新提供贷款支持等，为村集体经济高质量发展提供 强劲助力。本栏撰稿 刘海波 四川日报全媒体记者 袁城霖 今年，龙森中药启动总投资2500万元的道地中药材规范化种植和趁鲜切制及中药饮片生产线技改 项目。其间，宣汉县纪委监委"两重两新"政策督导组指导企业申报超长期国债资金，有效缓解了 企业项目建设的资金压力。如今 ...

12月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国务院新闻办公室举 行的新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，各地区各部门积极实施宏观政策，政策效应持续显现，对支持经济 平稳运行发挥了重要作用。"近期，主要国际组织纷纷上调对中国经济增长预期。" 在消费领域，付凌晖指出，消费品以旧换新政策加力显效，带动家电、通讯等相关商品销售增速加快， 促进商品消费需求扩大。相关数据显示，1—11月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材 类商品零售额同比分别增长14.8%和20.9%，服务消费也保持较快增长。 在投资方面，付凌晖表示，大规模设备更新政策效应逐步释放，企业推进设备更新、加快技术改造升级 的意愿明显增强。1—11月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长12.2%，拉动全部投资增长1.8个百分点； 电力、互联网等相关行业投资保持较高增速。 从生产端看，付凌晖指出，"两重""两新"等政策措施深入实施，促进市场需求释放，带动相关产品生产 增长。1—11月份，规模以上装备制造业增加值同比增长9.3%，汽车、集成电路等重点工业产品产量分 别增长10.8%和10.6%，产业升级步伐持续加快。 展望未来，"两重 ...

Economic Overview - The core economic sentiment for 2025 reflects a juxtaposition between rising anxiety among individuals due to stagnant wages and a record number of graduates, and optimistic growth forecasts from institutions like the IMF, which raised China's growth expectation to 4.8% [1][3] Market Response - A significant drop in A-shares by 245 points in April 2025 was quickly mitigated by the central bank's liquidity measures and state-owned enterprises' market support, showcasing China's unique policy coordination system [3] - The "Two New, Two Heavy" policy aims to stimulate the economy through major infrastructure projects and consumer incentives, with 1.3 trillion yuan allocated for long-term special bonds and 1.1 trillion yuan generated from appliance and vehicle trade-in programs [3] Industrial Growth - The equipment manufacturing sector is experiencing a 9% growth rate, contributing over 50% to industrial growth, with significant advancements in areas like electric vehicles and solar exports [5] - China's engineering talent pool is substantial, with engineers making up a quarter of the global total, and the technology gap in AI between China and the US has narrowed significantly [5] Consumer Behavior - Despite fluctuations in consumer confidence, retail sales have reached 48.8 trillion yuan, with a stable middle-income group exceeding 400 million people [7] - Consumption growth in rural areas outpaces urban areas, with a notable increase in the penetration of electric vehicles in lower-tier cities [7] Supply Chain Adaptability - The external environment has highlighted the adaptability of China's supply chain, with increased export routes through ASEAN and a 17% rise in freight volume via the China-Europe Railway Express [8] Real Estate and Employment - Real estate investment has declined by 5.2% as local governments reduce land sales to focus on affordable housing, leading to a shift in credit resources towards manufacturing [10] - While traditional manufacturing jobs have decreased, new roles in AI and carbon neutrality have seen an 80% increase in demand [10] Economic Disparities - The urban unemployment rate remains at 5.3%, while technical positions in industrial parks see an 8% wage increase, indicating a structural mismatch in the labor market [11] - There is a divergence in economic assessment standards, with GDP growth at 5.3% contrasting with a lower 2.8% growth in disposable income, highlighting the lag in individual economic benefits during the transition [11] Resilience and Challenges - International institutions view China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves and robust industrial system as buffers against economic shocks, while individuals are more affected by price fluctuations and job competition [13] - The ongoing economic transformation raises questions about the timing of benefits reaching individuals and whether the distribution mechanisms need optimization [13]