Group 1: Residential Market Outlook - The chairman of JLL Hong Kong, Zeng Huanping, predicts a 5% decline in small to medium-sized residential prices this year, driven by an increase in non-local professionals and students [1] - Residential rents are expected to reach historical highs due to the influx of non-local talent and students [1] - The forecast for luxury property prices has been adjusted from a 5% decline to a range of 5% to 10% due to an increase in distressed sales of commercial properties affecting luxury homeowners [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Market Outlook - The office market is showing signs of improvement, with increased leasing activity in prime locations, particularly in Central, despite an overall vacancy rate rising to 13.6% [1] - The net absorption recorded in the first half of the year was 130,700 square feet, driven by transactions in key areas like Central, Wan Chai/Causeway Bay, and Tsim Sha Tsui [1] - JLL anticipates that rental rates for prime office buildings in Central will stabilize by the end of the year, although overall office rents are expected to decline by about 5% for the year [2] Group 3: Retail Market Outlook - The vacancy rate for core area street shops remains at 10.5%, while the vacancy rate for premium shopping malls has reached a new high of 10.5% due to increased new supply and additional vacant space in existing malls [2] - The upcoming completion of approximately 600,000 square feet of new retail space is expected to exert upward pressure on vacancy rates for premium shopping malls [2] - Rental rates for core area street shops and premium malls are projected to decline by 5% to 10% this year [2]

摩根士丹利称，香港住房价格从高峰下跌30%后，可能正迎来一个或将持续四到五年的上升周期。支撑 住房市场的因素包括印花税取消、Hibor下降导致按揭利率降低、来自内地买家和移民的需求增加等。 ...

其次为A类细单位(431方呎或以下)，成交6029宗，平均楼价492万港元;C类单位(753至1076方呎)则有 1805宗，平均楼价约1654万港元。至于实用面积超过1076方呎的D及E类大型单位，合共1228宗，平均 楼价高达4246万港元。由此可见，普通话拼音买家偏好中小型住宅，较少涉足高价大单位。 陈永杰指出，楼价自高位回调近三成，加上撤辣、引进人才政策及利率下降等利好因素，均推动非本地 买家积极入市。据中原地产数据，上述1.55万宗交易涉及金额合共约1654亿港元，占同期总成交额5490 亿港元的三成，折算人均购买力达1063万港元，突显内地客资金充裕。 中原统计显示，撤辣后普通话拼音买家以中小型单位为主，其中最受欢迎的是B类单位(实用面积431至 752方呎)，录得6488宗成交，平均楼价约828万港元。 智通财经APP获悉，香港特区政府自去年2月全面撤辣，吸引不少内地人士来港置业及移居。中原地产 亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰指出，自2024年3月至2025年5月的15个月期间，全港录得逾6.3万宗 私人住宅买卖登记，其中以普通话拼音登记的买家高达1.55万宗(包括一手7361宗，二手8188宗 ...

Group 1 - Jefferies indicates that the declining interest rates in Hong Kong increase the likelihood of the residential real estate market hitting bottom [1] - The one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly by 205 basis points over the past four days, providing a glimmer of hope for the struggling real estate market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority sold HKD 129.4 billion (approximately USD 16.6 billion) to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from appreciating beyond its peg with the US dollar, resulting in increased liquidity in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Jefferies' global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, suggests that if the Hong Kong dollar does not appreciate, local asset prices will face upward pressure, further increasing the chances of the residential real estate market bottoming out [1] - The Centaline Property Agency reports that current property prices have fallen approximately 29% from the peak in August 2021, with the number of negative equity households reaching the highest level since 2003 as of the end of March [1] - Analysts Sam Wong and Shujin Chen from Jefferies note that while the decline in Hibor may ease financing cost pressures for developers and landlords, it could also compress local banks' profit margins [2] Group 3 - The banking sector in Hong Kong may be approaching a profitability turning point, although it has not yet arrived, with ongoing net interest margin pressure [2] - By the second quarter of 2025, the growth momentum of non-interest income may weaken [2]