Core Insights - The private residential completion volume in Hong Kong saw a significant increase in September, reaching 1,004 units, up approximately 69.6% from 592 units in August [1] - The majority of completions in September were in the Kowloon district, with 548 units, while the New Territories recorded 450 units, both breaking the "zero completions" status seen in August. The Hong Kong Island area had only 6 completions, a drastic decrease of 99% month-on-month [1] Summary by Category Completion Volume - For the first nine months of the year, a total of 13,354 private residential units were completed, representing a 22.3% increase compared to 10,921 units in the same period last year. This figure is approximately 64% of the annual target of 20,862 units, compared to 49% achieved in the same period last year [1] District Analysis - Kowloon district accounted for the highest completion volume with 8,105 units, a significant increase of about 65.3% from 4,902 units year-on-year. The Hong Kong Island recorded 2,457 units, a fivefold increase year-on-year, while the New Territories saw a notable decline of approximately 50.2%, with only 2,792 units completed compared to 5,610 units last year [1] Unit Size Analysis - The most completed units were those with a usable area of 431 square feet or less, totaling 7,113 units, which is a 16.3% increase from 6,119 units year-on-year. The mid-sized units, ranging from 431 to 752 square feet, also saw an increase, with 4,431 units completed, up approximately 18.8% from the previous year [1] - The largest increase in completion volume was observed in medium-sized units (753 to 1,075 square feet), with 1,155 units completed, marking a substantial increase of about 2.9 times year-on-year. Conversely, large units (1,076 to 1,721 square feet) experienced a decline, with 521 units completed, down approximately 17.7% from the previous year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry in Hong Kong [1]. Core Insights - The current adjustment in the Hong Kong real estate market, which began in Q3 2021, is nearing its end, with signs of price stabilization observed in Q2 2025. The cumulative decline in residential property prices from September 2021 to March 2025 is 28.4% [27][75]. - Key factors contributing to the potential recovery include improved GDP growth, increased disposable income, and a favorable rental yield environment, which enhances purchasing power and willingness among residents [28][30][75]. - The market is characterized by a concentration of market share among top developers, with the top five companies holding a 46.8% market share in sales [53]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The previous cycle of the Hong Kong real estate market saw a significant decline in prices from 1997 to 2003, with a cumulative drop of 66% in residential property prices. The recovery was driven by improved economic conditions and a decrease in housing supply [9][22]. Current Outlook - The report indicates that the Hong Kong real estate market is approaching the end of its adjustment phase, supported by stabilizing GDP and disposable income growth, alongside a reduction in housing supply [27][28][75]. - The rental yield for private residential properties is becoming increasingly attractive, nearing mortgage rates, which is expected to boost buyer interest [14][35]. Market Structure - The concentration of market share among leading developers allows for significant flexibility in adjusting land acquisition and sales strategies, enhancing their performance during market upturns [53][70]. - The average rental income from properties held by major developers is projected to stabilize, providing a buffer against market fluctuations [64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major local developers such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [75].

Core Viewpoint - The report from OCBC Bank indicates that despite recent cooling measures by the Singapore government, the private residential market may still experience an upward trend in both prices and transaction volumes [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent tightening of real estate policies by the government has led to a decline in developer stock prices, which was anticipated by the market [1] - Analysts caution that if the pace of price increases diverges from economic fundamentals, the real estate market may face additional regulatory pressures [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - OCBC Bank expresses a favorable outlook on real estate developers that can generate stable income streams, particularly those employing a light-asset model for fund management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore has introduced new measures to curb rising property prices by increasing stamp duty for sellers who sell their properties within four years of purchase [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The holding period for sellers' stamp duty will be extended from three years to four years [1] - The stamp duty rate will increase from 12% to 16% for the first year of ownership [1] - The revised tax measures will not affect public housing owners, as they are already subject to minimum residency requirements [1] Group 2: Market Context - There has been a significant increase in the number of private residential transactions with short holding periods in recent years [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government has seen an influx of mainland buyers in the property market since the removal of restrictions in February last year, with over 63,000 private residential transactions recorded from March 2024 to May 2025 [1] - Among these transactions, 15,500 were registered under Mandarin pinyin, accounting for approximately 25% of total buyers, indicating a significant presence of mainland buyers [1] - In May 2025, there were 1,042 transactions by Mandarin pinyin buyers, a decrease of about 13.7% from April, involving approximately HKD 10.4 billion, which also saw a nearly 9% decline [1] Group 2 - The average price for properties purchased by Mandarin pinyin buyers was HKD 10.63 million, highlighting their substantial purchasing power [1] - The majority of transactions involved smaller units, with the most popular being B-class units (431 to 752 square feet), totaling 6,488 transactions at an average price of HKD 8.28 million [2] - The top properties favored by Mandarin-speaking buyers included South Horizons, with 610 transactions, followed by Sun Hung Kai's SIERRA SEA, which recorded 135 transactions [2]