农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年10月23日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周四，豆油主力01合约继续偏弱调整。MPOA数据上调马棕 油产量，带动油脂整体下跌。当前我国豆油库存继续积累，供应充 足，弱现实持续。四季度是豆油传 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the long holiday, the futures prices of edible oils rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.99% to close at 8,302 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 2.28% to close at 9,438 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.19% to close at 10,061 yuan/ton [5][31]. - In the international market, the bottom - oscillation of international crude oil has intensified, suppressing the upward trend of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The high inventory pressure in September may restrict the further rise of futures prices, but the Indonesian B50 plan supports long - term demand, and the increase in exports since October has also boosted the market [9][32]. - In the domestic market, the relations between China and Canada, and China and the US still have a great impact on rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The news of the US imposing additional tariffs on China over the weekend has caused turmoil in the global financial market, and there is a high possibility of significant high - level market oscillations under policy uncertainty [9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Analysis - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [13]. b. Other Data - As of September 26, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.461 million tons. On October 1, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 581,000 tons [17]. - As of October 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,579,700 tons [19]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22][23]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [25]. c. Comprehensive Analysis - Palm oil: From September 1 - 30, 2025, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 2.35%. The total estimated production in September was 1.81 million tons. The single - yield decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.34% [7][31]. - Soybean oil: As of now, the export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season have only completed 23.7% of the annual target, far lower than the 5 - year average of 43.4%. The slow sales pace may force the US to lower its export forecast and increase the ending inventory. From January - September 2025, China imported 72.7 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for 77.4% of Brazil's total soybean exports. US soybeans fell 0.98% this week [7][31].