Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.69% [1] - Nearly 4,800 stocks declined, with a total trading volume of 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 486.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day, and a net sell-off of 153.6 billion yuan by domestic institutional investors [1] Reasons for Market Decline - Regulatory scrutiny on financial platforms has intensified, prohibiting the promotion of a bull market atmosphere [4] - Several stock funds, including E Fund, have restricted subscriptions [4] - Guotai Junan Securities raised margin requirements, interpreted as a move to reduce leverage [5] - Historical patterns suggest that companies with stock prices exceeding Kweichow Moutai tend to decline, with Cambricon Technologies becoming a new stock leader, prompting profit-taking [5] - Micro-cap stocks led the decline due to mid-term report pressures and liquidity issues, with many funds starting to redeem quantitative funds [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market drop is viewed as a sharp adjustment rather than a market peak, with a mid-term target of 4,000 points remaining unchanged [6][8] - Historical comparisons indicate that significant market corrections have occurred without breaking key support levels, suggesting that the market has not yet reached a peak [8] - The afternoon sell-off was characterized by unprecedented panic, which does not align with typical peak market behavior [9] Institutional Influence on Market Dynamics - The market has transitioned to a phase dominated by institutional investors, with their holdings estimated to exceed 17 trillion yuan, representing nearly half of the market's total value [13] - Different funding structures are leading to varied market styles, with a focus on high-dividend assets and quantitative strategies [14] Company-Specific Updates - Meituan reported a second-quarter adjusted net profit of 1.49 billion yuan, significantly below the expected 9.85 billion yuan, leading to a pre-market drop of over 10% in its ADR [16]