记者丨 庞华玮 编辑丨姜诗蔷 临近年底，A股在4000点关口反复震荡，市场风格骤然生变。 前期领涨的科技"小登"板块 （如电子、计算机、通信等）出现显著回调，而煤炭、银行、钢铁等周期"中登"板块则涨幅 领先。 鲜明的风格切换，让市场热议一个话题：面临年底业绩考核与排名压力，公募基金经理们是 否正在大规模调仓换股？ 21世纪经济报道记者采访调查发现，年底基金经理的调仓行为并非铁板一块，而是在长期考 核与短期压力、坚守风格与顺势而为之间展开一场复杂博弈。 总体来看，年底基金经理的调 仓行为是分化的：有的在"高切低"锁定收益，有的在坚守甚至加仓看好的成长股，还有险资 可能在逆向操作。 "高切低"现象引调仓猜测 进入四季度，A股市场的画风突变，"高切低"（即从高位板块向低位板块切换）成为盘面最显 著的特征。 此前一路高歌猛进的科技成长板块（被市场戏称为"小登"，如电子、计算机、通信、传媒 等）集体陷入深度回调。 截至11月18日，申万一级行业指数中，电子板块四季度以来跌幅近8%，传媒、计算机跌幅均 超5%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，一度被市场遗忘的周期板块（如煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、银 行等）则强势逆袭，煤炭、石油石化板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift as fund managers face year-end performance assessments, leading to a "high cut low" strategy where funds are reallocating from high-performing technology sectors to undervalued cyclical sectors like coal, banking, and steel [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The technology sector, previously leading the market, has seen a notable decline, with the electronic sector down nearly 8% and both media and computer sectors down over 5% since the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - In contrast, cyclical sectors such as coal and oil have surged, with both sectors gaining over 11%, while banking and steel sectors have increased by more than 7% [2] - There is a clear trend of capital outflow from high-performing technology stocks into lower-valued sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers are engaging in a complex game of balancing long-term investment strategies with short-term performance pressures, leading to varied approaches to year-end reallocation [1][3] - The "high cut low" strategy is primarily aimed at locking in profits and managing rankings, with fund managers reducing exposure to high-flying tech stocks while increasing positions in undervalued assets [3][4] - Some fund managers choose to maintain their positions in technology stocks, believing that recent declines are merely profit-taking rather than a sign of a market downturn [4][5] Group 3: Institutional Investor Actions - Insurance funds are also adjusting their strategies, often focusing on stability in the fourth quarter due to their annual performance assessments, which differ from public funds [8][9] - Some insurance institutions are taking advantage of the market's shift by increasing their positions in growth stocks while others are moving towards value stocks [9][10] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience increased volatility as it prepares for a potential transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market in 2026, with opportunities across both technology and traditional sectors [11][12] - The investment strategy is shifting towards a "rebalancing" approach, focusing on both cyclical sectors and undervalued technology stocks, aiming for a balanced portfolio to mitigate risks [11][12]

Core Insights - The article draws a parallel between shopping for products during the Double Eleven sales and selecting investment funds, emphasizing the importance of a strategic approach in both scenarios Part 01: Fund Selection Guide - Step 1: Define the investment goal, similar to having a shopping objective, which helps in selecting suitable funds based on investment planning, risk tolerance, and time horizon [3] - Step 2: Evaluate historical performance and fund manager credibility, as past performance can indicate the manager's capability, even though it does not guarantee future results [3] - Step 3: Assess the cost-benefit ratio using the Sharpe ratio, which measures excess return per unit of risk, with a ratio above 1 indicating good performance and above 2 indicating excellent performance [3] - Step 4: Review the fund's holdings, focusing on industry distribution and top holdings to ensure alignment with investment intentions and avoid redundancy in the portfolio [4] Part 02: Rational Fund Management - Avoid impulsive purchases driven by market trends, akin to emotional shopping, to prevent poor investment decisions [6] - Refrain from frequent redemptions, as high transaction costs can disrupt long-term strategies and lead to a cycle of chasing market trends [7] Part 03: Optimizing the Investment Portfolio - Regular maintenance of the investment portfolio is essential, similar to periodically cleaning a shopping cart [9] - Implement a "core-satellite" strategy, allocating 60%-80% to core assets for stability and 20%-40% to satellite assets for higher returns [10][11] - Conduct periodic reviews of the fund portfolio to rebalance and maintain the intended asset allocation, ensuring alignment with market conditions [13]

Group 1 - The current index level is more favorable than in 2015, with significantly lower valuation levels, suggesting that there is no need to overly focus on the index points themselves [1] - Structural opportunities still exist in various sectors such as new energy, chemicals, consumer electronics, resources, and machinery, despite short-term investor caution primarily in the technology sector [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural adjustment, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades, Chinese companies going abroad, and edge AI [1] Group 2 - The overall growth is entering a recovery cycle, with improvements in net profit margins and a broadening of growth across sectors due to accelerated overseas expansion and the resolution of internal competition [2] - The third quarter saw a continued recovery in performance for non-financial sectors, with large and mid-cap stocks showing greater earnings elasticity [2] - Certain industries, such as new technology and global pricing resources, are in a recovery and expansion phase, while others face excess pressure [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and adjustment, with a potential shift in market style and themes [4] - The electronic industry and growth style have reached historically high levels of allocation, which may trigger structural adjustments [4] - Key sectors to focus on include coal, oil and gas, new energy, non-bank financials, public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The external environment has improved with the recent US-China trade talks, alleviating market concerns about external uncertainties [5] - Macro policies are expected to continue to strengthen, creating a favorable environment for the A-share market [5] - The focus for investment should be on technology companies with real technological barriers and sectors benefiting from domestic consumption [5] Group 5 - The focus of the market is shifting towards internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports [6] - The consensus reached in US-China trade discussions, along with a mild recovery in overseas demand, is expected to boost domestic export-related sectors [6] - Key sectors to watch include AI, software, power, energy storage, and emerging themes like controlled nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The market is likely to experience a period of volatility and consolidation in the short term, with a more optimistic long-term outlook [7] - The current economic growth targets and stable policy environment are expected to support further market gains [7] - Attention should be given to low-base sectors that may release greater elasticity in the coming year, particularly in cyclical and consumer areas [7] Group 7 - The market is undergoing a rebalancing phase, with a high concentration of holdings in the TMT sector and improvements in capital returns for various industries [8] - The focus is shifting from excitement over capital expenditure to skepticism about its expansion, with a notable shift in AI investments towards traditional industries [8] - Opportunities exist in upstream resources and sectors benefiting from domestic price stabilization and economic recovery [8] Group 8 - The technology growth sector is experiencing a slowdown in short-term over-allocation, leading to increased volatility [9] - The TMT sector's allocation by funds has reached historical highs, indicating a strong focus on this area despite potential fluctuations [10] - The market may see a transition in style as it approaches a clearer economic recovery phase, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors [11]

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].

Core Insights - The narrative illustrates the financial struggles of an individual facing mounting expenses for education and healthcare, leading to risky investment decisions in the stock market [2][3] - The story highlights the transition from high-risk stock trading to more stable and reliable investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of financial security over speculative gains [4][6] Investment Behavior - Initially, the individual was drawn to stock trading after hearing about significant returns from a colleague, leading to a substantial investment of 320,000 yuan [2] - The initial success in stock trading resulted in a profit of 27,000 yuan in the first month, which created a false sense of security [3] - A sudden market downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led to significant losses, prompting a family crisis over the mismanagement of funds [3][4] Financial Strategy Shift - Following advice from a neighbor, the individual shifted to a more conservative investment approach, focusing on diversified and low-risk financial products [4][5] - The new strategy included splitting remaining funds into different categories: 30,000 yuan for daily expenses in a high-yield savings account, 100,000 yuan in government bonds for education expenses, and 50,000 yuan in short-term bond funds [4] - The individual also discovered a short-term investment opportunity with a brokerage offering a 4.5% annualized return, which was seen as a favorable option [5] Market Trends - The narrative reflects a broader trend in the financial market where individuals are moving away from high-risk investments towards safer, more stable options, as evidenced by the growth of bank wealth management products and public funds [4][6] - The emphasis on financial prudence and the avoidance of high-risk products is underscored by the character's realization that financial security is paramount for managing family expenses [6] Conclusion - The story concludes with a sense of stability and peace of mind achieved through careful financial planning and investment, contrasting the earlier thrill of speculative trading [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that funds are suitable investment options for ordinary people [1] - It discusses the importance of diversified allocation in investment, referring to it as a "free lunch" in investing [3][4] - The article highlights the concept of portfolio theory introduced by Markowitz, which states that diversification can reduce risk [6][10] Group 2 - Diversified allocation can lower investment volatility risk while potentially not reducing returns, especially when combined with rebalancing [6][7] - An example is provided where a diversified allocation of the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend (each at 50%) with annual rebalancing yields higher returns and lower volatility compared to the CSI 300 [6] - The article mentions that Markowitz's theory laid the foundation for the emergence of index funds, which typically diversify across dozens or even hundreds of stocks [10] Group 3 - The company's advisory portfolio applies the principle of diversified allocation, combining different styles such as growth and value, and adjusting allocations based on relative valuations [11] - Since its launch, the advisory portfolio has achieved returns exceeding the market index while maintaining lower volatility risk [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that international capital is reassessing and positioning itself in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by a series of positive developments including Alibaba's stock surge and the influx of foreign investments [1][2] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, there is a global demand for "rebalancing," making Hong Kong a popular destination for capital inflows [1][2] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved, with the total market capitalization reaching HKD 46.6 trillion by the end of August 2025, a 47% increase from HKD 31.8 trillion a year earlier [2] Group 2 - The attractiveness of Hong Kong's stock market is partly due to its valuation "discount," which has drawn substantial overseas capital, leading to increased trading volumes and a recovery in valuations [2][4] - Foreign long-term funds are actively subscribing to cornerstone investments in Hong Kong IPOs, with notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine attracting significant interest [4] - As of September 17, foreign net inflows into Chinese stocks reached USD 1.86 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since November of the previous year [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong technology sector has led the market this year, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 41.5% as of September 24 [3] - Major foreign investment banks have recently expressed bullish sentiments on well-known Hong Kong-listed companies, reaffirming buy or outperform ratings for firms like Tencent and BYD [5] - The performance of sectors such as AI, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals has shown strong growth momentum, further attracting foreign investment [5]

Group 1 - The core idea of the podcast is to share investment strategies and insights from Ray Dalio, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the importance of diversification and risk management [2][4][5] - Dalio highlights the performance of Bridgewater's China All Weather Fund, which has achieved an average return of around 16% over the past six years, demonstrating the effectiveness of a balanced asset allocation strategy [4][5] - The discussion includes the significance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and economic fluctuations [5][6][10] Group 2 - Dalio warns about the risks of relying solely on price appreciation for bond investments in a low-yield environment, suggesting that investors should be cautious when yields are low and focus on rebalancing their portfolios [7][8] - The importance of geographical diversification is emphasized, with Dalio advising investors to avoid market timing and instead maintain a balanced portfolio across different regions [9][10][11] - Dalio provides insights on the allocation of gold within an investment portfolio, suggesting that it should typically represent around 10-15% to effectively hedge against currency devaluation [16][17] Group 3 - The podcast discusses the structural decline of the US dollar due to excessive debt, emphasizing the relationship between debt and currency value [18][19] - Dalio compares Bitcoin to gold, viewing it as a complementary asset for diversification, while highlighting the unique advantages of gold as a stable store of value [20][21] - The limitations of stablecoins are addressed, with Dalio suggesting that they are not suitable for wealth storage compared to inflation-linked bonds, which provide better protection against inflation [22][23] Group 4 - Dalio shares personal insights on family wealth management, advocating for the importance of savings and teaching future generations about the value of money through tangible assets like gold coins [25][26] - The necessity of rebalancing investment portfolios is discussed, with Dalio stressing the importance of having a disciplined approach to maintain strategic asset allocation [28][30] - The use of automated investment systems to avoid emotional decision-making is recommended, highlighting the need for a well-defined investment plan [32]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, particularly focusing on "rebalancing" to manage risks and enhance returns in investment portfolios [3][4]. Group 1: Rebalancing Strategy - The concept of rebalancing involves adjusting the proportions of stocks and bonds in a portfolio based on market movements. For instance, if stocks drop below 40% of the portfolio, selling some bonds to buy more stocks is advisable. Conversely, if stocks exceed 40%, selling some stocks to increase bond holdings is recommended [3]. - This rebalancing strategy can provide additional returns and reduce risks, effectively acting as a "free lunch" in investment [3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article discusses the "All Weather" strategy, exemplified by Bridgewater Associates, which diversifies investments across various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This strategy aims to ensure that these assets do not move in the same direction simultaneously [5][6][7]. - The effectiveness of such strategies is also noted in the A-share market, indicating their broader applicability [8]. Group 3: Black Swan Theory - The article references Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" theory, which highlights unpredictable risks that can have significant impacts. Taleb advocates for a "barbell strategy," where the majority of investments are in safe assets like government bonds, while a small portion is allocated to high-risk options [9][10]. - This approach allows investors to earn stable returns from safe assets while being positioned to benefit significantly if a "Black Swan" event occurs, thus acting as a risk mitigation strategy [11]. Group 4: Global Adoption - The strategies discussed are widely adopted by investors globally, showcasing their relevance and effectiveness in various market conditions [12].