华泰证券表示，从再平衡的影响趋势来看，白银承受的被动抛售压力较黄金更强。考虑到白银期货市场 容量与流动性显著低于黄金，其被动调仓规模占总未平仓合约比例明显更高，白银在再平衡窗口期内或 面临更为集中的技术性抛售压力，而黄金则更多体现为温和的技术性回调。 ...

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习生陈俊康北京报道 据央视新闻报道，1月4日下午，爱尔兰总理马丁乘机抵达北京首都国际机场，开启为期5天的访华行 程。此访是爱尔兰总理时隔14年再次访华。除北京外，马丁总理还将访问上海。 有分析认为，此访正值中国与欧盟关系调整之际，同时伴随欧洲多国领导人在岁末年初接踵访华，体现 出务实合作仍是双方都期待推动的目标。 北京外国语大学欧盟与区域发展研究中心主任崔洪建在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时指出，此次访问 发生在中欧关系结构性调整与爱尔兰即将接任欧盟轮值主席国的双重背景下，不仅旨在深化中爱双边务 实合作，更对稳定与发展中欧整体关系具有重要示范意义。 崔洪建表示，近年来中爱关系发展平稳，经贸合作成果显著，为此次高层互动奠定了坚实基础。他分 析，爱尔兰的访问诉求主要基于两点：一是其自身对华合作的需求，两国在经济上互补性强，尤其在数 字、绿色等新兴领域合作潜力巨大；二是作为下半年欧盟轮值主席国的候任者，爱尔兰希望借助此访， 整合双边积极因素，为担任主席国期间稳定并推动中欧关系发展积累动能。 "在当前大国关系剧烈变动、一些国家国际责任观出现倒退的背景下，爱尔兰作为中小国家，对维护 ...

圣诞节前的布鲁塞尔，空气里夹着冬夜的潮冷与政治的焦灼。2025年12月18日，就在欧盟27个成员国召 开峰会讨论乌克兰问题的同一天，大批农民驾驶拖拉机进入欧盟机构周边，抗议矛头直指欧盟—南共市 自贸协议。同一周，欧盟委员会又抛出对2035年新车"零排放"目标的"倒退"方案——从"零排放"转 向"减排90%"。 （来源：经济参考报） 愤怒的农民掷出的土豆，打击的是欧盟试图扩大贸易自由化并推动供应链多元化的雄心；"禁油令"的摇 摆，则折射出欧盟在推进绿色转型以寻求新经济增长点的首鼠两端。这些，共同构成了欧洲经济迟缓难 行的岁末注脚。 回望2025年，欧洲经济在保持一定程度韧性增长的同时，走向"再平衡"阶段：一方面在地缘与贸易冲击 常态化的背景下重塑供给；另一方面在通胀回落与政策转向中修复需求。 美国关税政策带给欧洲的冲击不仅是出口压力，更是"可预期性下降"。企业难以据此形成稳定定价与供 应链计划，投资与扩产因而更加谨慎。欧洲央行也多次提示，关税与贸易不确定性会通过预期渠道压制 投资和消费，对增长形成持续性拖累。 贸易不确定性并非孤立变量。乌克兰危机持续抬升地缘风险溢价，能源价格波动仍是压在欧洲企业成本 曲线上的" ...

2026年将呈现出哪些特点？可以概括为两个关键词：不确定性与可能性。 文/吴晨 不确定性不言而喻。一边是以"做交易"为行事逻辑的特朗普持续打破全球既有秩序：以自我为中心、以 利益为上，政策缺乏持续性，全世界都需要适应他的多变。如果说这种不确定性更多体现为随个人偏好 起伏的"随机波动"，那么，技术狂飙所带来的不确定性，其背后则蕴含着多种可能性。 一种可能是AI泡沫的破裂。历史上的技术浪潮，大多经历过膨胀与破裂的过程，AI不可能例外。但如 果放长时间尺度来看，我们仍处在AI发展的1.0阶段，类似于世纪之交的互联网1.0时期。因此，即便泡 沫破裂，也不会改变AI长期进化的方向。 另一种可能性，是AI对职场带来的巨大冲击。2026年是AI Native（AI原住民）毕业的第一年。他们也 是第一批在GPT环境中成长起来、同时又目睹入门级工作被大规模替代的一代人。AI将如何重塑职场， 2026年或将给出初步答案。 回顾过去四分之一个世纪，iPhone时刻与诺基亚危局，或许是理解不确定性与可能性最具代表性的案 例。新技术只有抵达"iPhone时刻"，才能真正改变消费者行为；而在位者一旦误判趋势，往往会从巅峰 迅速坠落。"门 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第424期直播回放】 有朋友问，哪些指数，是被机构投资者认可的？ 这些指数，适合我们普通投资者入手吗？最适合新手入门的指数，是什么？ 指数投资中，做好分散配置+再平衡，有啥好处？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1223 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 新手投资指数基金，适合从哪些品种入门？ 我们投资股票类资产，可以选择单个股票，也可以投资指数基金这样的品种。 对大多数家庭来说，走指数基金投资是更合适的。 因为选个股，是一个很耗费时间和精力、风险也比较大的事情，大多数普通投资者不具备这个能力。 而指数基金， 具备分散配置、新陈代谢的能力， 就不用太担心单个公司的经营风 其中，比较常见的股票指数指引，主要是以下几类： · 公募基金业绩基准一类库指数； 2. 公募基金业绩基准一类库 我们先来了解下 公募基金业绩基准库 一类库 。 公募基金业绩基准库，现阶段主要纳入股票指数，分为一类库和二类库。 | 特点 | 当前指数数量 | 覆盖范围 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the personal pension system in China, emphasizing the benefits of tax deductions for high-income earners and the investment options available within personal pension accounts, particularly focusing on index funds [3][6][63]. Group 1: Personal Pension Account Details - The deadline for transferring funds into personal pension accounts is December 31, 2025, with an annual contribution limit of 12,000 yuan [3][4]. - Individuals with higher incomes benefit more from the tax deferral advantages of personal pension accounts, making it more attractive for them [7][11]. - A table is provided to help individuals assess their suitability for opening a personal pension account based on their monthly pre-tax income [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Options in Personal Pension Accounts - Personal pension accounts can invest in various products, including commercial pension insurance, savings deposits, wealth management, public funds, and government bonds [15]. - As of September 30, 2025, there are 91 index funds included in the personal pension fund directory, covering 16 mainstream stock indices [16][18]. - The article highlights two classic investment strategies for index funds: combining the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, and pairing leading strategy indices with dividend strategy indices [22][25]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Performance - The article suggests diversifying investments across different styles, such as growth and value, to balance risks and returns [34][37]. - It notes that both growth and value investment styles have shown similar long-term performance, despite short-term fluctuations [34][40]. - The article provides insights into how to determine investment amounts and strategies for personal pension accounts, including the importance of market conditions [42][44]. Group 4: Common Questions and Clarifications - The article addresses common questions regarding the operation of personal pension accounts, including the ability to redeem funds and the conditions under which funds can be accessed [58][61]. - It emphasizes that personal pension accounts are designed for long-term investment, ideally suited for individuals with a risk tolerance for market fluctuations [52][63].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with significant movements in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, driven by favorable economic indicators such as lower-than-expected CPI data in the US, which supports the potential for further interest rate cuts [5][6][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market has risen, closing at 4.2 stars, which is close to 4.1 stars [1]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, have seen increases, with small caps showing slightly higher gains [2]. - The growth style has been particularly strong, contributing to the overall market rise [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Historical analysis indicates that A-shares have experienced three significant bear markets in the last 15 years: 2012-2014, 2018, and the ongoing 2022-2024 period, suggesting that these bear markets present valuable investment opportunities [17]. - It is estimated that an investor may encounter 6-10 bear market buying opportunities over a 30-year investment horizon, emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets [20][21]. - The article suggests that patience in waiting for undervalued buying opportunities can lead to successful long-term investments, with the potential for around 20 investment opportunities over 30 years if one diversifies across various asset classes [28][29]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article references Warren Buffett's analogy of having only 20 investment opportunities in a lifetime, which encourages careful consideration before making investment decisions [9][10]. - It highlights the importance of understanding market cycles and maintaining composure during downturns, as the market will eventually reward those who are patient [30]. - The article also mentions the significance of diversification and rebalancing in index investments, which can enhance investment outcomes for ordinary investors [30].

雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 以下是本次圆桌对谈中 ， 61提到的主要观点 ： 1 、 牛熊转换阶段 ， 决定结果的不是判断方向 ， 而是 攻守是否平衡 。 低点扛不住 ， 等不到牛市 ； 只守不攻 ， 也会在结构性行情中留下遗 憾 。 2 、 牛市真正的风险 ， 不在下跌 ， 而在上涨过程中丢掉安全边际 。 情绪扩张时的盲目自信 ， 是投资中最大的隐患 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 上周末 ， 61受邀参加雪球嘉年华 ， 参与了 《 如何买基金收益更稳定 》 的主题圆桌讨论 。 会上见到了不少关注61的朋友 ， 感谢大伙的厚爱 。 3 、 熊市和牛市都是长期投资的组成部分 ， 不是对立面 。 短期波动只是生命周期中的一段 ， 不值得被过度放大 。 4 、 牛市中更容易亏钱 ， 是因为很多人没想清楚三件事 ： 初衷 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a "weak recovery + rebalancing" for the global economy in 2026, supported by four factors: balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the AI investment wave, while constrained by high interest rates, tariff impacts, and difficulty in achieving synchronization across economies [1][19]. - The report highlights that the global economic recovery is expected to be more evident in quarter-on-quarter improvements rather than year-on-year increases, reflecting a gradual upward trend but with weak momentum [2][53]. - The analysis suggests that the economic performance of developed countries is likely to gradually recover, while emerging markets will remain relatively stable, indicating a convergence in economic performance across different regions [2][53]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely only implement two rate cuts in 2026, aligning with the economic fundamentals, but there is a concern regarding the potential loss of the Fed's independence due to political influences surrounding the upcoming leadership change and midterm elections [3][55]. - It is noted that the macro environment is favorable for U.S. equities due to recovery and rate cuts, but the current valuations are at levels reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, which may limit upside potential [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that while U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly due to economic fundamentals, the change in Fed leadership and potential for unexpected rate cuts could create downward pressure on yields [4][36]. Group 3 - The report discusses the expected stabilization of the U.S. dollar due to a more balanced economic performance between the U.S. and Europe, although it is unlikely to see significant strength, with the Chinese yuan projected to appreciate slightly [4][38]. - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, but the pace may slow due to high valuations, with a focus on the potential for industrial metals like silver and copper to outperform [4][41]. - The outlook for oil prices suggests a continuation of a weak trend due to oversupply, with Brent crude oil expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, contingent on geopolitical factors not escalating [4][44].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing volatility in global markets and suggests strategies to protect investment returns during challenging market conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The core strategy proposed involves combining two seemingly contradictory asset types: high-volatility assets with zero long-term expected returns and low-volatility assets also with zero long-term expected returns [6]. - The concept of "Shannon's Demon" illustrates how rebalancing can transform a zero expected return scenario into a positive return over time [11][18]. - By rebalancing investments between high-volatility assets and cash, investors can reduce overall portfolio volatility and mitigate the negative impact of volatility drag on long-term returns [20][21]. Group 2: Risk and Return Dynamics - The article emphasizes the negative impact of volatility on returns, particularly in bear markets where high volatility can lead to rapid loss of gains [23][24]. - It highlights that while low volatility is generally preferred, it is only beneficial if the expected returns of low-volatility assets are equal to or greater than those of high-volatility assets [25][26]. - Investors should focus on their risk tolerance and set expected returns based on their investment goals, using diversification and multi-asset allocation to minimize risks associated with achieving those returns [27]. Group 3: Importance of Rebalancing - Rebalancing is crucial as it helps maintain the intended risk profile of an investment portfolio, preventing excessive risk exposure during market fluctuations [34][36]. - The article warns that frequent rebalancing can incur transaction costs and may not always lead to improved returns, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [38]. - A well-defined rebalancing strategy can provide a corrective mechanism for portfolios, helping investors maintain a steady investment mindset amidst market volatility [39][40].