TMT 板块涨幅领先,三只有色 ETF 申报 指数化投资周报 20251215 产品成立募集情况： 2025 年 12 月 15 日 产品成立方面,最近一周,东财中证港股通科技 ETF、博时中证银行 ETF 等 4 只 ETF 产 品上市；宝盈中证 A500 指数增强 A、华夏国证港股通科技 ETF 联接 A、联博中证 500 指数增强 A 等 11 只产品成立。 募集方面，未来一周 18 只指数产品结束募集，9 只指数产品将开始募集。结束募集的指 数产品包括长信上证科创板综合指数增强 A 和易方达中证港股通高股息投资 ETF 等 18 只产品, 开始募集的指数产品包括广发国证工业软件主题 ETF、易方达中证港股通医疗主 题 ETF 等 9 只产品。 申报方面，最近一周共计 34 只指数产品进行申报，伴随有色金属过去几个月的上涨行 情，有色方向的 ETF 产品关注度也有进一步提升,最近一周,鹏华、博时申报中证工业 有色金属主题 ETF，景顺长城申报中证有色金属矿业主题 ETF 。 证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A02305250 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the ETFs in the technology TMT sector are warming up. The index product market is active, with a significant number of product listings, new launches, and filings. In the recent week, most major broad - based ETFs in the A - share market, as well as those in the Hong Kong and US markets, have seen price increases, especially in the technology and cross - border sectors [1][3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Fund - raising, and Filing - **Product Listing and Establishment**: 8 ETF products, such as Morgan Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF and Bosera Industrial Software ETF, were listed, and 17 products, including CICC CSI A500 Index Enhancement A and Penghua CSI 500 Index Quantitative Enhancement A, were established [1][5]. - **Product Fund - raising Information**: In the coming week, 15 index products, like Xingquan CSI 300 Quality ETF, will end their fund - raising, and 13 products, such as Fuguo Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, will start [7]. - **Product Filing Information**: A total of 60 index products were filed in the recent week. Among them, 28 science and technology innovation board - themed products accounted for half. 12 fund companies, including Southern and E Fund, filed for the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robot ETF [2][10]. 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Broad - based ETFs**: Most major broad - based ETFs in the A - share market rose, with the ChiNext 50 ETF and Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF increasing by 4.65% and 3.22% respectively. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Internet rose 3.11%. In the US market, the Nasdaq ETF and S&P 500 ETF increased by 4.99% and 4.59% respectively. The gold ETF in the commodity ETF category rose 2.55% [3][13]. - **Industry ETFs**: Most major industry ETFs in the A - share market rose. The technology category had relatively high increases, with the communication ETF rising the most at 8.85%, followed by the electronics ETF and chip ETF, which increased by 5.23% and 4.73% respectively [3]. - **Cross - border ETFs**: All major broad - based cross - border market indices rose. The China - South Korea Semiconductor and Nasdaq 100 had the highest increases, at 5.17% and 4.93% respectively. The Huatai - Peregrine CSI KRX China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF led the gains at 7.66% [18]. 3.3 ETF Fund Flow - **Overall Scale**: As of November 28, 2025, there were 1,369 ETFs in the entire market, with a total scale of 5,688.698 billion yuan, an increase of 85.044 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked first and second in scale [3]. - **Net Inflow and Outflow**: Among non - monetary ETFs, the ETFs targeting Shanghai - listed market - making treasury bonds had the largest net inflow of 2.942 billion yuan, while the ETFs tracking the ChiNext Index had the largest net outflow of 6.867 billion yuan [3]. - **High - inflow Products**: Huaxia Shanghai Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF and Dacheng CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF had high fund inflows, at 2.942 billion and 2.426 billion yuan respectively. Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF and Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF had high liquidity, with average daily trading volumes of 23.01 billion and 10.005 billion yuan respectively [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "Five Bowls of Noodles" (economic, policy, funding, overseas, and technical aspects) to navigate the current market complexities and make informed investment decisions [3][5][6]. Economic Aspect - The economic cycle is crucial for asset allocation, with the current phase identified as a "weak recovery" [5]. - The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock categorizes economic conditions into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating, and stagflation, each suggesting different fund allocations [5]. - Historical performance data shows fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index and various fund indices from 2019 to 2025, indicating the impact of economic cycles on investment returns [5]. Policy Aspect - The Chinese stock market is closely linked to macroeconomic policies and industry guidance, with significant policies historically providing clear direction for market movements [6][7]. - The 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "technological innovation + self-control," targeting a GDP growth rate of 4.7% and focusing on sectors like AI and deep-sea economy [7]. Funding Aspect - Recent monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and the Federal Reserve, have improved global liquidity, positively affecting the A-share market [8][9]. - Historical data shows that previous rate cuts have led to significant increases in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a strong correlation between monetary policy and market performance [9]. Overseas Aspect - External factors such as U.S.-China relations and global central bank gold purchasing trends are influencing market risk appetite [10]. - The trade surplus with the U.S. has increased, and China's gold reserves have reached a 20-year high, providing a buffer against geopolitical tensions [10]. Technical Aspect - Technical indicators, including index trends and trading volume, are essential for understanding short-term market rhythms [11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests a diversified investment strategy based on individual risk tolerance, recommending a mix of technology-focused ETFs, broad index funds, and fixed-income products to balance risk and return [13][15].

Overall Introduction - The book introduces market rules, asset allocation logic, and strategies for different asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, while addressing practical issues faced by investors [4]. Core Views - The book proposes three dimensions to assess the market: policy, economy, and inflation, which are used to determine market conditions [7]. - Economic cycles are divided into six stages, each with corresponding asset preferences, ranging from bonds in the early slowdown to cash and commodities in the stagflation phase [11][12][13][39]. - Effective asset allocation strategies include the Permanent Portfolio, All Weather Portfolio, and Global Market Portfolio, emphasizing diversification and risk management [14][15][16]. Current Situation - Current policies are characterized as accommodative, with indicators such as M1 growth increasing from 0.39% in January to 5.96% in August [33]. - Economic recovery is weak, with industrial value-added growth declining from 7.7% to 5.2% [37]. - The market is likely in a transition between the late slowdown phase and the early recovery phase, suggesting a preference for small-cap growth stocks [39][40]. Investment Insights - Long-term asset allocation is crucial for sustained success, with diversified strategies proven to provide stable returns [44]. - A balanced stock-bond allocation is suitable for most investors, allowing for flexibility in extreme market conditions [45]. - Simplifying investment approaches and focusing on fundamental market principles can lead to better outcomes [47][48].