Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term macro - drive is in place but overall exceeds expectations. The Fed's rate - cut intensity meets expectations, and Powell's speech is dovish. The statement of immediate "balance - sheet expansion" and the weak labor reality guide further rate cuts. Domestically, focus on the incremental policy of the Politburo meeting in the short term. The inventory structure of domestic finished products improves, but iron ore demand declines. The restriction of port spot trade pushes up the spot price, and the basis of the futures price converges to the spot price. It is expected that hot - metal production will decline, and inventory will tend to accumulate. With weak real - world drivers but strong macro - expectations, the price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [3][4] - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (05) will operate in the range of 750 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the price of the overseas contract (FE01) of about 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments increased slightly week - on - week. Shipments from Australia increased slightly, those from Brazil decreased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream mines increased substantially. Considering seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, the peak of overseas ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline month - on - month [3] Demand - Domestic demand is accelerating its decline due to insufficient terminal demand, increased annual maintenance of steel mills, seasonal decline in demand, and the blast - furnace profitability rate being at a three - year low. The weak reality will limit the upside of prices. According to Mysteel research, 12 new blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance this period, and 6 blast furnaces resumed production. Blast - furnace maintenance mainly occurred in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, etc., due to the decline in downstream demand. Blast - furnace resumptions occurred in Hebei and the Northeast regions after the end of maintenance and decent downstream demand [4] Inventory - The imported inventory of steel mills remains at a low level and increased slightly this period. High prices have curbed restocking demand, and the inventory of steel mills mainly purchasing port - spot has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to when the restocking of US - dollar - denominated goods by steel mills will fully start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the high arrival volume and the decline in the high - level port - clearance volume. It is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black market is expected to experience low - level oscillations with a slight rebound. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the iron ore market will see the futures price moving towards the spot price, with short - term interval operations recommended. The coal - coke market is expected to have the basis repaired, and the ferroalloy market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation [12][13][15][16]. Summary According to the Directory 01 周度行情回顾 - **Price Changes**: The prices of most varieties showed fluctuations. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2601 increased by 1.73% from 3057 to 3110, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose by 0.93% from 3220 to 3250. The price of coking coal JM2601 decreased by 3.26% from 1103 to 1067, and the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 2.82% from 1420 to 1380 [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **Steel**: The supply side may tighten as the impact of production line maintenance on output is expected to shrink significantly. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a view of low - level oscillations and a slight rebound. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price is moving towards the spot price. The supply pressure of foreign mines may decline, and the domestic demand is decreasing. It is recommended to conduct interval operations in the short term, with the price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore ranging from 765 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The domestic coal production is stabilizing, but the high - level import of coal and the decreasing domestic hot - metal output may lead to a decline in the spot market, and the basis is expected to be repaired. The futures price is expected to oscillate near the lower limit of the range (1100 - 1300) [15]. - **Ferroalloy**: The demand side lacks resilience and is expected to weaken further. The supply - side contraction is not as expected, and the market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side and downstream demand [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - **Rebar**: The weekly output was 206.08 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 227.94 tons, a decrease of 2.85 tons. The total inventory was 531.48 tons, a decrease of 21.86 tons [19][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The weekly output was 319.01 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, a decrease of 4.20 tons. The total inventory was 400.90 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons [31][37]. 铁矿石 - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported ore was 15210.12 tons, an increase of 155.47 tons compared to the previous week. The daily port throughput was 330.58 tons/day, an increase of 0.66 tons/day [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8942.48 tons, a decrease of 58.785 tons compared to the previous week. The daily consumption was 289.43 tons/day, a decrease of 2.25 tons/day [61]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3323.3 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons compared to the previous week. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2663.2 tons, an increase of 65.7 tons [69]. 煤焦 - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.1 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons [95]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2635.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons [101]. 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the previous week. The spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous week [132]. - **Output**: The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon was 194775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.72 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous week [139][141]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel products was 121727 tons, an increase of 320 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 19660 tons, an increase of 117 tons compared to the previous week [144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese silicon was 368000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 71830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons compared to the previous week [147].