景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2025 年度中期投 资策略 20250708 全球炼化行业的产能增长总体趋于放缓。在中国、美国和欧洲等主要市场中， 新建净产能已显著减少。未来几年内，中国、印度、中东及部分非洲国家将成 为主要新增产能来源。然而，从长远来看，全球炼化行业的增速仍将显著放缓。 这一趋势反映了对成品油需求增长预期的调整。目前，中国国内需求基本处于 峰值，而北美和欧洲等发达国家虽有增长，但增幅亦在减缓。此外，美国政府 的新法案可能提振传统能源需求，同时削弱新能源需求。 中国石化行业在节能降碳方面有哪些新要求？ 根据 2024-2025 年度节能降碳方案，中国新建和改扩建石化项目必须达到能 效标杆水平及环保绩效水平。同时，对于 200 万吨以下的小规模炼厂要求全部 淘汰。目前统计显示，大量炼厂仍在运行，需要逐步退出市场。此外，在乙烯 生产方面，45 万吨以下的小规模乙烯装置占比超过 20%，这些装置也面临淘 汰压力。这些措施预计将改善整个石化行业的结构，提高效率并减少环境影响。 未来几年中国石化项目投产计划如何？ 摘要 2024 年油价预计高位达 90 美元，随后回落至 70-80 美元区间，近期 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨石油化工 [Table_Title] 景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2024 年 报及 2025 年一季报综述 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年及 2025Q1，受地产基建承压及全球贸易摩擦等影响，油价中枢有所下跌，石化板块营 收及净利润均有所下滑，但行业景气度已接近历史底部。从子行业拆分上来看，盈利有所分化， 石油化工下游深加工、煤化工与气化工等板块均持续出现一定程度的正增长，需关注板块里的 结构性机会。经过分析，需持续重点关注：高质量增长+成长+高股息板块的相关投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 王岭峰 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SAC：S0490521080001 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 石油化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 景气触底，结构分化——石油化工行业 2] 2024 年 报及 2025 年一季报综述 [Tab ...