一、生猪 生猪主力2601合约低位震荡止跌，此前跌创历史新低。生猪现货价格短暂反弹后再落，郑州外三元价格成交价由月 初12380元/吨跌至11800元/吨。基差震荡走弱，盘面接近平水。 （1）猪价低迷，养殖延续全面亏损。因猪价低迷，当前生猪养殖行业面临较严重的亏损。据wind：截至11月7日， 外购仔猪养殖利润为-175.54元/头，较大亏损；自繁自养为-89.21元/头，亏损幅度收窄。头部企业也在盈亏线附近， 牧原9月的养殖成本为11.6元/kg，而10月郑州猪价最低到了11.11元/kg，低于牧原的成本。散户的成本要高于头部企业， 亏损更严重一些。饲料原料玉米近期价格稳定，豆粕价格出现回升。截至11月7日，猪粮比为5.6，在盈亏线下。 （2）能繁产能调减偏慢，生猪存栏大增。养殖亏损令企业扩张步伐收缩，且政策严控新增产能，并进行调控。不 过生猪产能调减周期或较长。9月全国能繁母猪存栏量为4035万头，较上月减少3万头，按这个进度需要近3年才能完成 政策上100万头能繁调减目标的要求。生猪存栏增长幅度较大，三季度末全国生猪存栏量为43680万头，环比增长2.9%， 同比增长23%。供应压力不减。 养殖亏损延续 ...

据农业农村部监测数据，10月份全国鸡蛋批发价为每公斤7.63元，环比下降5.22%，同比大幅下降26.56%。 卓创资讯监测数据显示，10月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量约为13.59亿只，环比减幅0.66%，同比增幅5.59%，在产蛋鸡存栏量虽有所下降，但仍处高位，加之气温 下降后产蛋率提升，鸡蛋供应压力不减。 卓创资讯鸡蛋市场资深分析师刘梅在研究报告中指出，10月份存栏虽降，但供应仍较充足，叠加需求进入季节性淡季，月内蛋价跌势较为明显。 刘梅在研报中指出，依据10月末老母鸡出栏日龄494天推断，11月份待出栏的老母鸡为16-17个月前补栏的鸡苗，理论出栏量也在8000万只左右，但是经过10 月份集中淘汰后，养殖单位计划下一波淘汰时间多在春节前，因此11月份老母鸡实际出栏量或略有减少，导致在产蛋鸡存栏或存略增可能。 从供应情况来看，刘梅表示，11月份在产蛋鸡存栏量或调整幅度不大，整体仍处较高水平，鸡蛋供应压力仍存，市场需求虽略有好转，但提振有限，预计11 月份鸡蛋月均价较10月份或基本维持平稳，供应压力下，蛋价仍处偏低水平。 国元期货也认为，虽然四季度产蛋鸡存栏量存在下降预期，但仍将维持在13亿左右的历史高位区间，叠加 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement in demand, egg prices are likely to be weak. Near - month contracts are expected to show a volatile and weak trend, and it is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts at high prices [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3169, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3339, down 8; JD09 closed at 3828, down 26. The 01 - 05 spread was - 170, up 11; the 05 - 09 spread was - 489, up 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 659, down 29. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal had minor changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.72 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The average price of culled hens was 4.14 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The profit per laying hen was - 4.68 yuan, down 3.48 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas by 0.07 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined. Beijing's egg prices dropped by 5 yuan per box [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, up 0.03 billion from the previous month and 6% year - on - year. The estimated laying hen inventories for October, November, December 2025, and January 2026 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Culled Hen Data**: In September, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, down 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. In the week of October 16, the culled hen出栏量 was 20.32 million, up 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, up 2.7% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.45 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, down 0.23 days [8]. 3. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, and there is short - term supply pressure. The demand is weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are likely to be weak, with near - month contracts expected to show a volatile and weak trend [10]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. (300967) reported significant year-on-year growth in chicken product sales volume and revenue, attributed to an increase in market share despite a decline in month-on-month performance [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company sold 23.2475 million chickens, generating sales revenue of 101 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.56% in sales volume and 8.40% in revenue, but a year-on-year increase of 45.59% in sales volume and 91.17% in revenue [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The low price of eggs in May led to losses in the egg-laying chicken farming sector, resulting in decreased replenishment enthusiasm among farming enterprises [1] - Adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures in northern regions and heavy rainfall in southern markets, raised concerns about egg quality, leading to a lack of confidence in future market conditions [1] - The market focus shifted towards inventory clearance, with limited demand boost from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [1] Group 3: Cost Factors - Feed costs remained relatively stable, failing to provide effective cost support for egg prices [1]