Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices are generally under pressure and may continue a weak trend due to slow adjustment of reproductive sow capacity, significant growth in pig production capacity, high supply pressure, and potential increase in southern curing demand [4][6]. - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom because of continuous decline in chick sales, low replenishment enthusiasm, continuous increase in old - hen culling, a slight decrease in laying - hen inventory, high current laying - hen inventory, high supply pressure, and weak consumption [7][8]. Summary by Directory I. Pig 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of live pigs stopped falling after a low - level shock, and the spot price rebounded briefly and then declined again. The Zhengzhou outer ternary price dropped from 12,380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,800 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was close to the spot price [4]. 2. Breeding Situation - Pig farming is facing serious losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 89.21 yuan per head. Feed raw material prices were stable or rising, and the pig - grain ratio was 5.6, below the break - even line [4]. 3. Production Capacity - The adjustment of reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. At this pace, it will take nearly 3 years to complete the policy - required reduction of 1 million heads. The national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23% [4]. - From the perspective of large - scale farms, the adjustment progress is also slow. In September, the reproductive sow inventory of large - scale farms was 5.0421 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month. The number of piglet births increased slightly month - on - month, and the sales volume decreased. The inventory of commercial pigs increased month - on - month, and the proportion of fat pigs increased slightly [5]. 4. Demand - In October, the sales volume of commercial pigs from large - scale farms reached a new high in recent years. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. Downstream slaughter enterprises became profitable again, and the operating rate was stable and higher than the same period last year. As of November 7, the operating rate of 81 slaughter enterprises was 33.49%, a slight month - on - month increase. The southern curing demand may gradually increase [6]. II. Egg 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of eggs rebounded and then declined again. The spot price dropped, and the price of eggs in Xishui, the main producing area, decreased from 3,380 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was at a premium [7]. 2. Breeding Situation - Egg - chicken farming continues to be slightly loss - making. As of November 7, the national egg - chicken farming profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken. The loss cycle has lasted for nearly 9 months. In October, the chick sales volume was 35.88 million feathers, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years [7]. 3. Production Capacity - The culling of old hens continued to increase. In October, the culling volume of old hens at sample points was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. The laying - hen inventory decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time this year, but still increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The laying - hen inventory may decline seasonally in the fourth quarter [7][8]. 4. Consumption - Egg consumption is relatively stable and depends on festival consumption stimulation. After October, consumption was insufficient, and the egg sales volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [8].

Core Insights - The wholesale price of eggs in China decreased to 7.63 yuan per kilogram in October, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.22% and a year-on-year drop of 26.56% [1] - The inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.359 billion in October, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.66% but a year-on-year increase of 5.59% [1] - Despite a reduction in the number of laying hens, the supply remains high due to improved laying rates as temperatures drop, leading to continued pressure on egg prices [1][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the egg market is experiencing significant supply-demand imbalance, with high levels of laying hen inventory and limited demand growth [4] - The expected output of old hens in November is around 80 million, but actual numbers may slightly decrease due to planned culling before the Spring Festival [4] - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain high in November, with prices likely stabilizing around October levels despite some minor improvements in demand [4][5] Market Trends - The egg price is expected to continue its downward trend into the first week of November, with a weekly decline of approximately 4% [1] - The presence of large stocks held by egg storage merchants is constraining current prices [1] - The fourth quarter may see a slight decrease in laying hen inventory, but it is projected to remain around 1.3 billion, maintaining historical high levels [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement in demand, egg prices are likely to be weak. Near - month contracts are expected to show a volatile and weak trend, and it is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts at high prices [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3169, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3339, down 8; JD09 closed at 3828, down 26. The 01 - 05 spread was - 170, up 11; the 05 - 09 spread was - 489, up 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 659, down 29. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal had minor changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.72 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The average price of culled hens was 4.14 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The profit per laying hen was - 4.68 yuan, down 3.48 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas by 0.07 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined. Beijing's egg prices dropped by 5 yuan per box [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, up 0.03 billion from the previous month and 6% year - on - year. The estimated laying hen inventories for October, November, December 2025, and January 2026 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Culled Hen Data**: In September, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, down 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. In the week of October 16, the culled hen出栏量 was 20.32 million, up 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, up 2.7% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.45 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, down 0.23 days [8]. 3. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, and there is short - term supply pressure. The demand is weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are likely to be weak, with near - month contracts expected to show a volatile and weak trend [10]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. (300967) reported significant year-on-year growth in chicken product sales volume and revenue, attributed to an increase in market share despite a decline in month-on-month performance [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company sold 23.2475 million chickens, generating sales revenue of 101 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.56% in sales volume and 8.40% in revenue, but a year-on-year increase of 45.59% in sales volume and 91.17% in revenue [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The low price of eggs in May led to losses in the egg-laying chicken farming sector, resulting in decreased replenishment enthusiasm among farming enterprises [1] - Adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures in northern regions and heavy rainfall in southern markets, raised concerns about egg quality, leading to a lack of confidence in future market conditions [1] - The market focus shifted towards inventory clearance, with limited demand boost from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday [1] Group 3: Cost Factors - Feed costs remained relatively stable, failing to provide effective cost support for egg prices [1]