Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the egg futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the September contract closing at 3484 yuan per 500 kg, a decrease of 144 yuan compared to the previous week [1] - Current inventory levels of laying hens are high, leading to increased production pressure from newly added hens, resulting in ample egg supply [1] - Despite the high supply, extreme heat in various regions is causing a decline in egg production rates, which may temporarily ease market supply pressure [1] Group 2 - The spot market prices have not met expectations, with a recent decline following a previous low recovery [1] - Terminal demand is gradually improving, and there remains a bullish sentiment among producers regarding price increases [1] - The near-month contracts are showing weak adjustments due to bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory levels, while the far-month contracts are demonstrating resilience [1] Group 3 - The strategy recommendation suggests taking a light long position in the far-month contracts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, egg prices continued to rise and entered the summer peak season. This year's fundamentals are similar to 2017 and 2020, with ample supply and low spot prices during the plum - rain season. Summer peak seasons usually see significant price increases due to reduced egg production and increased travel. The price increase slope is steeper in high - supply years. The upward momentum weakened last Thursday and Friday, and the spot price dropped over the weekend. There may be a phased adjustment, but it's not the summer peak yet. Based on historical data, the expected average maximum and minimum spot prices in the production areas during the third - quarter peak season this year are 4.30 yuan/jin and 3.77 yuan/jin respectively. Futures are under pressure as the spot price stops rising, and short - term trading is expected to be volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2508, 2509, and 2510 all declined, with decreases of 0.86%, 0.31%, and 0.44% respectively. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 111,565, and the open interest was 250,165. The national egg spot price remained stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.21 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.45 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Futures are under pressure as the spot price stops rising. Future focus is on the time of the second - wave price increase, and short - term trading is expected to be volatile [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.34 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Rearing Quantity**: In June, the monthly chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, a decrease from May but a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024. The chick rearing volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Laying Hen Culling Volume**: As of the first three weeks of July 18, the national laying hen culling volumes were 15.05 million, 16.27 million, and 17.14 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season. As of July 24, the average culling age of laying hens was 506 days [10].

General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: June 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The current oversupply in the egg market remains the main theme, and all contracts are at historically low price levels. The recent price rebound is only a phase and difficult to form a trend. As time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space for the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - Egg 2507 contract: The previous settlement price was 2954, the opening price was 2902, the highest price was 2910, the lowest price was 2855, the closing price was 2857, down 97 or -3.28%. The trading volume was 29,698, the open interest was 40,856, a decrease of 1336 [7] - Egg 2508 contract: The previous settlement price was 3622, the opening price was 3593, the highest price was 3600, the lowest price was 3557, the closing price was 3569, down 53 or -1.46%. The trading volume was 189,517, the open interest was 236,982, an increase of 3337 [7] - Egg 2509 contract: The previous settlement price was 3666, the opening price was 3645, the highest price was 3652, the lowest price was 3622, the closing price was 3630, down 36 or -0.98%. The trading volume was 58,381, the open interest was 138,603, an increase of 11,347 [7] - **Price Situation**: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.00 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 1.46% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The price rebound should be treated as a phase, and it is difficult to form a trend. As time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space for the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8] 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of May, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for five consecutive months, and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% compared with 1.244 billion in the same period last year [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 44.98 million, slightly less than 46.99 million in April and slightly higher than 44.54 million in the same period in 2024. It is a medium-level single-month replenishment volume in May in the past eight years [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: In the first three weeks as of June 6, the national chicken culling volumes were 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with four consecutive weeks of month-on-month increases, and a slight decline this week. The absolute value was slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of June 12, the average culling age of chickens was 512 days, three days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg chicken breeding profits, average prices in the main egg-producing areas, seasonal trends of the egg 07 contract, basis of the egg 07 contract, and price difference between the egg 08 and 09 contracts, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][17][19]