12月31日，美元正面临八年来最差的年度表现，分析人士警告称，如果下一任美联储主席如预期般选择 更大幅度的降息，美元还可能进一步走弱。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："第一季度影响美元的最大因素将是美联储。不仅是1月和3月 的议息会议，更重要的是在杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束后，谁将出任美联储主席。" 美元指数今年累计下跌超9%，在今年4月美国总特朗普宣布所谓"解放日"关税政策后，美元大幅下挫。 此后，随着特朗普多次对美联储施压，并力推在明年任命一位偏鸽派的美联储主席，美元持续承压。 目前，市场关注的焦点仍集中在美联储，以及谁将接替任期将于5月结束的鲍威尔出任主席。 Monex Inc.外汇交易员Andrew Hazlett表示："哈西特作为长期领跑者，基本已被市场消化；但如果是沃 什或沃勒，他们可能不会那么快降息，这对美元反而更有利。" 在市场已计入明年至少两次降息的背景下，美国的货币政策路径正与部分发达经济体出现分化，进一步 削弱了美元的吸引力。 欧元对美元大幅走强，原因在于通胀温和以及即将到来的欧洲国防支出浪潮，使市场对欧元区降息的押 注几乎为零。与此同时，利率交易员押注加拿大、瑞典和澳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury options market shows a bullish trend amid speculation that Trump may appoint a "dovish" successor to current Fed Chair Powell, leading to a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The benchmark Treasury yield has retreated from previous highs, reflecting a change in investor sentiment as options trading indicates a bullish outlook [1] - Following reports of potential changes in Fed leadership, the 30-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.07% on July 16, the highest since May [1] - The White House clarified that Trump does not intend to replace Powell before his term ends in May next year, alleviating market concerns and prompting a rebound in long-term Treasuries [1] Group 2: Fed Policy and Investor Sentiment - Powell indicated that he would assess the impact of Trump's new tariff policies on the economy before considering rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the market [1] - Fed Governor Waller's rare suggestion for a rate cut in July has heightened attention on internal disagreements within the Fed [2] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - The risk premium for 30-year Treasury put options has decreased as yields fell to around 4.9% by July 22, indicating reduced investor concern over significant declines [2] - A significant number of bullish bets on 10-year Treasury futures were observed, with approximately 54,000 September call options traded, totaling a premium of about $23 million [5] Group 4: Position Adjustments - A survey by JPMorgan revealed an increase in both long and short positions in U.S. Treasuries, with a decrease in neutral positions, indicating a more divided market stance [5] - According to CFTC data, asset managers reduced net long positions across most U.S. Treasury futures, particularly in the 5-year to ultra-long maturities, with a market value sensitivity of approximately $1.64 million per basis point [8] - Leveraged funds began to cover short positions in 10-year Treasuries, with a reduction in position value of about $5.6 million per basis point change in rates, suggesting a shift towards more neutral strategies [10]

Group 1 - Paul Tudor Jones suggests that Trump is likely to appoint a "very dovish" Federal Reserve chair to align with his economic growth policies, with Treasury Secretary Bessent as a potential frontrunner [1] - Jones believes that Bessent stands out as a candidate due to Trump's focus on economic growth and loyalty, despite other strong candidates like former Fed governor Kevin Walsh [1] - Tudor Investment, managed by Jones, currently has assets under management of approximately $16 billion [1] Group 2 - Jones warns that Trump's proposed "Big Beautiful Bill" could pose threats to both the stock and bond markets, potentially prompting the Fed to cut interest rates within the next 12 months [2] - He emphasizes the importance of appointing a dovish central bank official to facilitate rate cuts and suggests implementing a package of tightening policies, including tax increases for high-income individuals and significant cuts to social security, Medicaid, and defense spending [2] - Trump has indicated plans to appoint a successor to current Fed chair Powell, although formal interviews for the position have not yet begun [2] Group 3 - Recent U.S. core CPI data for May came in below market expectations, leading Trump to advocate for a one percentage point rate cut by the Fed [3] - Bessent praised Trump's policies for significantly improving U.S. CPI and noted that Trump has challenged decades of trade norms [3]