智通财经APP获悉，在市场不断猜测特朗普最终可能会任命一位"鸽派"继任者取代现任美联储主席鲍威尔之际， 美国国债期权市场出现明显看涨倾向。过去一周，基准国债收益率从此前高点有所回落，而期权交易的变化也反 映出投资者情绪的微妙转变。 此前有媒体报道称，特朗普正在准备撤换鲍威尔，计划启用一位更倾向于尽快降息的新任主席。这一传言曾一度 推动30年期美债收益率在7月16日攀升至5.07%，创下5月以来新高。 然而，白宫随后表态称，总统并无意在鲍威尔任期结束前撤换他(鲍威尔任期将于明年5月届满)。这一表态缓解 了市场担忧，使得此前因担心通胀反弹而遭到抛售的长期美债出现"舒缓式反弹"。 鲍威尔方面则明确表示，在考虑降息前，将会评估特朗普新一轮关税政策对经济的实际影响。他的谨慎立场为市 场增添了不确定性，促使投资者将目光转向7月30日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)利率决议，寻求更多政策线 索。 值得注意的是，美联储理事沃勒近期罕见地提出应在7月降息，使市场对美联储内部意见分歧的关注度上升。 在利率回落的背景下，30年期美债看跌期权的风险溢价有所下降。此前市场对于收益率上行的担忧导致对看跌期 权的强烈偏好，造成期权"倾斜率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status are reflected in the weak demand for a $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction, leading to declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Treasury Auction Results - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.047%, marking the second instance of yields surpassing 5% since the bond's introduction five years ago [3]. - The winning yield was 24 basis points higher than April's 4.810% and approximately 1.2 basis points above the pre-issue rate of 5.035%, indicating a significant tail risk [3]. - This auction is considered one of the worst performances for this maturity since its launch, reflecting deteriorating investor sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The weak auction results exacerbated a multi-week sell-off in Treasuries, highlighting growing investor dissatisfaction with increasing U.S. debt levels [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.607%, the highest since February 13 [3]. - Analysts noted that the market's reaction to the auction signals a collective avoidance of U.S. debt by foreign buyers, with rising financing costs putting pressure on the stock market [4]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The White House intensified pressure on Republicans to approve Trump's tax plan, which could add trillions to the already ballooning budget deficit [6]. - Concerns were raised that the current administration is unlikely to make meaningful cuts to the deficit, as highlighted by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin [6]. - The bond market is seen as a barometer for fiscal sustainability, with rising yields indicating that investors are increasingly wary of the government's fiscal policies [7]. Group 4: Debt and Deficit Statistics - The U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 100%, with interest payments projected to reach about $880 billion in 2024, exceeding defense spending [8]. - The amount of outstanding debt surged from under $14 trillion at the end of 2016 to nearly $30 trillion [8]. - The annual sales of U.S. government debt reached a record $2.6 trillion last year, indicating a significant increase in borrowing [8].