本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月16日盛宝集团策略师谈美国市场利率与数据影响】12月16日，盛宝集团首席投资策略师Charu Chanana称，市场将本周看作美国宏观叙事的小"重置"。就业、通胀数据将在窄窗口期公布，或迅速对 利率重新定价。美联储上周降息，预计2026年再降息一次，而市场预计明年至少再降息两次。若数据好 坏参半或略弱于预期，软着陆叙事不变，但不足以引发大规模风险偏好行情。真正风险是鹰派意外，若 通胀或就业数据较热，收益率走高，风险资产尤其是长期成长类股票将首当其冲。 ...

盛宝集团首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示，市场将本周视为美国宏观叙事的一个小 "重置"，就业、 通胀数据将在一个很窄的窗口期公布，可能迅速对利率进行重新定价。美联储上周降息，并预计在2026 年再降息一次，但市场预计明年至少会再降息两次。"如果数据好坏参半或略弱于预期，那么软着陆的 叙事将保持不变，但这可能不足以成为引发大规模风险偏好行情的背景。真正的风险是鹰派意外。如果 通胀或就业数据较热，收益率就会走高，风险资产，尤其是长期成长类股票，会首先感受到这一点。" ...

Core Insights - Recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a significant reduction in inflation concerns within financial markets, but analysts from Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan warn that this optimism may be premature [1][3] - Investors might be underestimating the multiple upward price pressures in the economy, which could result in a more hawkish stance from central banks than anticipated, potentially impacting stock and bond markets [1][5] Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - Deutsche Bank reported on November 3 that the one-year inflation swap in the U.S. experienced its largest weekly decline since May due to trade easing [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish signals, particularly from Chairman Powell, indicate that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, contrasting with market expectations [3] - JPMorgan emphasized that the inflation impact from tariffs, although delayed, will eventually manifest and may be more persistent than expected [3][7] Group 2: Risks from Inflation Resilience - If inflation proves to be more resilient than anticipated, investors face multiple risks, including a potential hawkish shift from central banks that could pressure asset prices [5][8] - Historical patterns show that hawkish turns by central banks often coincide with significant stock market sell-offs, as seen in 2015-2016, late 2018, and 2022 [5][8] Group 3: Factors Influencing Inflation - Deutsche Bank identified six key factors that may keep inflation above expectations, including strong demand-side pressures and the delayed effects of monetary easing [6] - Recent global economic activity data has exceeded expectations, with the Eurozone's October composite PMI reaching a two-year high and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized growth for Q3 [6] - The impact of tariffs is still unfolding, with U.S. tariff revenues projected to exceed $200 billion this year, and companies planning to pass on a significant portion of these costs to consumers [7] Group 4: Market Implications - A hawkish surprise from central banks could lead to renewed support for physical assets like gold, which historically perform well during inflationary periods [8] - The report indicates that if inflation remains high, it could lead to a significant sell-off in equities, as evidenced by past central bank actions [8]

Group 1 - The current market is pricing in multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating a slightly lower threshold for hawkish surprises compared to dovish ones [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious communication approach and will not disclose too much information [1] - Economic forecasts and press conferences may emphasize that any rate cuts are precautionary, with a gradual approach to policy easing [1]