来源：市场资讯 看黄金 （来源：华安基金许之彦） 金秋十月 现货黄金突破 4000美元/盎司！ 华 安 E T F 智 诚 相 伴 第一，要关注美国政府停摆的变化。若重新恢复秩序，则可能短期的避险情绪有所消退。 国庆期间，伦敦现货黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。本轮黄金价格上涨受到全球投资人关注，背 后是多重因素的共同影响的结果，也符合华安黄金研究团队对于"黄金新周期"的判断。 1、 黄金上涨分析： 首先从短期来看，本轮金价的直接刺激因素来源于美国政府意外"停摆"。因美国国会未能通过临时拨款法案，导致 联邦政府部分机构暂停运转，对美国经济形成拖累。除了美国政坛以外，也包括法国、日本等政局变化。综合来 看，黄金的分散风险属性得到体现。 第二从中期的交易节奏看，我们在此前8月下旬Jackson hole会议中就提示，美联储9月有望开启降息，最新的降息预 期也支持我们对于降息的判断。根据历史经验，黄金在降息周期中，能够有效应对美元走弱和美债利率走低。 第三是黄金的长期逻辑，去美元化和央行购金节奏持续。华安黄金研究团队在2023年提出"黄金开启新周期"，其背 后反应的是黄金作为供需紧平衡资产，近三年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the performance of gold has consistently exceeded market expectations, characterized by an upward direction and significant volatility, indicating a shift in pricing logic beyond traditional cycles [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Gold's New Cycle - Breaking the traditional cycle perception is essential to comprehend the evolution of gold's new paradigm and to dynamically position gold within asset allocation frameworks [3]. - The analysis from 2020 to 2023 highlights that gold has been trading around $2000 per ounce for nearly three years, with the market not giving it sufficient attention, still viewing it through a box-like mindset [4]. - A significant qualitative judgment is that a once-in-a-century global order restructuring pulse is likely to commence, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and a decline in inter-country trust [4]. Group 2: Price Movements and Market Reactions - In early 2024, gold attempted to break upwards, reaching a plateau of $2400-$2500 per ounce, while the market continued to rely on traditional analytical frameworks to predict limited future price increases [4]. - A report published in May 2024 identified that traditional pricing models could no longer fully explain gold prices, suggesting that non-traditional factors are increasingly influencing gold trading [4]. - By early 2025, gold prices reached $3000 per ounce, with the market generally believing that prices had peaked at this integer level [5]. Group 3: Extreme Scenarios and Future Projections - In March 2025, a report explored five extreme scenarios that could lead to significant price increases for gold, helping the market to break free from rigid thinking [5]. - Following this, gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, with the market attributing the rise to tariff issues, while a report in May indicated that the price deviations from traditional factors had reached peak levels not seen since the 1970s [5]. - The "Gold Implied Order Restructuring Index (GIORI)" was introduced to capture trading signals related to global order restructuring, suggesting that future index movements could indicate a markedly different trajectory for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Educational Resources - The article introduces the "Gold Beyond Guide," which includes a condensed PPT, four detailed reports, and a course video aimed at helping investors maintain a leading understanding in an unusual gold bull market [7]. - The guide is designed to provide a comprehensive overview and facilitate a deeper understanding of gold's positioning and future potential [7].