报告导读： 基于国泰海通"全天候"大类资产配置框架，我们认为在全球秩序加速重构、地 缘政治局势趋势性恶化的背景下，安全再次成了最为稀缺的资源，而黄金则是对抗这种不 确定性的具象化。建议 3 月超配 AH 股、黄金、原油与工业商品。 我们构建了由"战略性资产配置（ SAA ）—战术性资产配置（ TAA ）—重大事件审议调整"构成的"全天候"大类资产配置框架，以作为投资决策的整体指 引。 基于该框架，我们认为在全球秩序加速重构、地缘政治局势趋势性恶化的背景下，安全再次成了最为稀缺的资源，而黄金则是对抗这种不确定性的具象 化。建议 3 月超配 AH 股、黄金、原油与工业商品。 建议 2026 年 3 月权益配置权重为 45.00% ：超配 A 股（ 10.00% ），超配港股（ 10.00% ），标配美股（ 15.00% ），标配欧股（ 5.00% ），标配 日股（ 5.00% ）。权益资产中，多重因素支持中国权益表现，（ 1 ）建议超配 A 股。 2026 年是十五五开局之年，预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政 策有望更加积极。人民币稳定升值，中国货币政策稳中趋松。地产支持与内需消费刺激政策持续出台，资本市场改革 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is at a critical juncture, with the long-term debt cycle under pressure and a restructuring of global order and reserve assets expected to influence market trends in 2026 [1][2]. Macro Context - The current global economy is at the tail end of a long-term debt cycle, with government debt as a percentage of GDP at historically high levels and diminishing marginal effects of traditional monetary policy [2][3]. - The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar faces challenges, with international trade shifting from globalization to regionalization and increased protectionism of key technologies and resources [2]. Commodity Market Outlook - The downward pressure on the commodity market is expected to ease, with prices gradually rising, although sector differentiation will continue [2][4]. - Gold is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to ongoing diversified purchases by central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Copper and aluminum are seen as leading indicators of structural market trends, driven by demand from infrastructure upgrades related to electric grids and new energy vehicles [4]. - The oversupply pressure in the oil market is gradually being digested, with OPEC's production increase slowing down, which may push oil prices higher [4]. Agricultural Products - Agricultural prices are likely to continue a pattern of oscillation, with current prices at low levels and cost support gradually emerging [5]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "low volatility, slow bull" characteristic in 2026, with opportunities arising from three main lines: upstream resource companies benefiting from fiscal expansion, companies achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and undervalued defensive sectors [6][8]. Investment Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on flexibility and structure, moving from traditional balanced approaches to more aggressive strategies [10]. - Long-term opportunities in the commodity market, particularly in gold, copper, and aluminum, are highlighted as core investment options [10]. Differentiated Investment Strategies - Conservative investors should focus on high-grade bonds, deposits, and money market funds, with limited exposure to equities and commodities [12]. - Moderate investors are advised to balance their portfolios with a tilt towards equities, while aggressive investors should increase their allocations to stocks and commodities [12].

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投 资赛道。 2026年，全球金融市场站在新旧周期交替的关键路口——长期债务周期尾部承压，全球秩序与储备资产重构，政策转向发力。多重变量交织下，投资者该 如何布局？ 近日，期货日报记者就马年宏观格局、各类资产走势及差异化配置策略采访了平安期货研究所所长李晨阳，为投资者拆解周期密码、布局方向。 宏观底色：债务尾部与秩序重构 理解马年资产配置，必须先看清当下市场所处的周期位置。李晨阳表示，当前全球处于长期债务周期尾部，政府债务占GDP的比重普遍处于历史高位，传 统货币政策边际效应递减。与此同时，美元主导的国际货币体系正面临多元挑战，国际贸易从全球化走向区域化，关键技术和资源品保护加剧。 "全球秩序与储备资产的重构将是马年金融市场走势的关键背景。"他说。 李晨阳表示，2026年欧美央行仍处于降息周期，且通胀尚未形成明显的上行压力。经济有韧性，货币与财政政策相对友好，这种组合对权益市场和大宗商 品市场形成支撑。 大宗商品市场：下行压力缓解，价格重心或逐步上移 在李晨阳看来，马 ...

大家好，我是小汉。 美国还能靠威胁让盟友听话吗？2026年2月的一连串事件给出了答案：不能了。 就在这个月，加拿大总理卡尼正式推出国家电动汽车战略，明确要与中国合作建厂、合资生产，并允许 每年近5万辆中国电动车以低关税进入本国市场。 这直接让特朗普恼羞成怒，他此前多次警告，若加拿大"倒向东边"，所有输美商品将被课以100%关 税。 更夸张的是，特朗普还突然翻脸，要求加拿大把一座耗资47亿美元、全由加方出资的大桥"分一半所有 权给美国"，否则不准通车。 然而，加拿大没退，美国国会反倒先内讧了。 2月11日，众议院以微弱多数通过决议，反对总统对加拿大加征惩罚性关税。 6名共和党议员倒戈，公开和自家总统唱反调。 靠恐吓维系的联盟，正在从内部瓦解。 加拿大为何敢转身？ 很多人以为加拿大转向中国是一时冲动，其实这是被逼出来的理性选择。 过去几十年，加拿大汽车产业高度绑定美国，全国生产的汽车近九成卖到美国，安大略省更是依赖这条 产业链养活数十万人。 但特朗普上台后，反复拿汽车关税当筹码，动辄威胁加征25%甚至100%。 去年他还扬言，不允许在美国销售的车型在加拿大生产，这种政策等于直接掐住加拿大工业的命脉。 这一幕放在五 ...

核心观点 证券研究报告 固收 "三高"环境下的应对和选择 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2026 年 2 月 11 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 近期全球市场呈现出高估值、高共识、高波动的"三高"状态，贵金属、比 特币、海外长债、美元指数、部分科技股等资产均出现了大幅波动。背后源 于全球流动性宽松的环境，市场共识在 AI 时代低成本的快速传播，容易带 来拥挤行情。建议在交易层面兼顾赔率，基于风险因子预算以及资产的负相 关性多元化配置，加强对市场情绪、资金流和仓位的跟踪。配置上，高估值 +高拥挤带来近日的全球市场高波动，不过各国财政+AI 资本开支推动制造 业周期回升的基本面主线仍在延续，秩序重构等主题继续演绎，多数权益和 商品处于相对顺风，建议仍以回调后择机买入为主。国内春节将至，日历效 应对股市或更偏积极，债市在长假期间有票息优势。AI 模型、伊朗局势、 春节期间的消费数据等是关注点。 核心主题："三高"环境下的应对与选择 我们认为当前"三高"的市场环境源于以下几个方面，一是全球货币宽松以 及美元走弱带来的充裕流动性环境；二是全球秩序重构、AI 科技革命等主 线在 AI 时代快速演绎；三是新资金+强叙事+强动量， ...

Core Insights - The global metal market has shown remarkable performance in 2025, with silver rising by 154%, gold by 67.4%, and copper by 41.7%, indicating a significant shift in pricing dynamics influenced by "resource nationalism" and strong market expectations [1][5] - The volatility in the market is part of the pricing process, with the geopolitical landscape extending from advanced technologies like AI chips to critical metal assets, suggesting that the metal market may experience a more pronounced premium trend due to global order restructuring [5][6] Market Dynamics - The current era of increased market volatility amplifies both risks and opportunities, prompting the need for individuals to identify stable returns and safety nets [6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman on January 30, 2026, led to a sharp liquidity contraction, causing silver prices to plummet by 30% within two trading days, highlighting the harsh realities of mean reversion in a liquidity crisis [7] Expert Analysis - Chen Dapeng, founder of KP Research and a prominent figure in the financial community, emphasizes the importance of deep industry understanding over mere modeling in commodity research, leveraging his extensive experience in mining and finance to provide insights into market dynamics [9][17] - Chen's analyses in 2025 gained significant recognition, leading to invitations to major financial events, where he was acknowledged as one of the most popular speakers [9][17] Course Overview - The upcoming course will cover five core modules, including the evolution of global resource pricing paradigms from "efficiency" to "security," the transformation of precious metal pricing power, and new paradigms for non-ferrous metal pricing influenced by resource nationalism [10][12][14] - Participants will learn to construct a framework for analyzing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors affecting resource nationalism and investment strategies in key metals [19][20]

2月5日，A股延续回调态势，双创指数跌幅靠前，市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收绿，抛压集中于有色等资源股及通信等科技股，白酒、银行股相对抗 跌。 受访人士指出，今日缩量下跌体现节前避险情绪升温与存量资金高低切换，预计节前A股大概率震荡磨底。当前建议投资者保持中等仓位，保留现金灵活 性，可逢低分批布局白酒板块，不宜急于"抄底"科技、资源股，暂不建议盲目上车券商板块。 量能大幅萎缩 指数跌多涨少，沪指收跌0.64%报4075.92点，创业板指收跌1.55%报3260.28点，深证成指收跌1.44%。沪深300、上证50微跌，科创50跌逾1%，北证50跌 逾2%。 前两日交易量能微降，今日三市成交额缩减3090亿元，降至2.19万亿元。近期杠杆资金热度明显下降，截至2月4日，沪深京两融余额降至2.69万亿元。 市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收跌，跌停股23只；1618只个股收涨，涨停股56只。随着交易量缩减，今日成交额超百亿元个股仅9只，多数热门股收 跌，新易盛、紫金矿业跌幅均超4%，蓝色光标、天孚通信跌近6%。贵州茅台收涨1.97%报1555元/股，网宿科技涨逾7%报17.97元/股。 | 代码 | 名称 | ...

2月5日，A股延续回调态势，双创指数跌幅靠前，市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收绿，抛压集中于有色等资源股及通信等科技股，白酒、银行股相对抗 跌。 受访人士指出，今日缩量下跌体现节前避险情绪升温与存量资金高低切换，预计节前A股大概率震荡磨底。当前建议投资者保持中等仓位，保留现金灵活 性，可逢低分批布局白酒板块，不宜急于"抄底"科技、资源股，暂不建议盲目上车券商板块。 量能大幅萎缩 指数跌多涨少，沪指收跌0.64%报4075.92点，创业板指收跌1.55%报3260.28点，深证成指收跌1.44%。沪深300、上证50微跌，科创50跌逾1%，北证50跌 逾2%。 前两日交易量能微降，今日三市成交额缩减3090亿元，降至2.19万亿元。近期杠杆资金热度明显下降，截至2月4日，沪深京两融余额降至2.69万亿元。 市场亏钱效应明显，3719只个股收跌，跌停股23只；1618只个股收涨，涨停股56只。随着交易量缩减，今日成交额超百亿元个股仅9只，多数热门股收 跌，新易盛（300502）、紫金矿业（601899）跌幅均超4%，蓝色光标（300058）、天孚通信（300394）跌近6%。贵州茅台（600519）收涨1.97 ...

Group 1 - Zhang Yidong, the former global chief strategy analyst of Industrial Securities, is set to join Haitong International Securities as a committee member, head of the equity research department, and chief economist [1] - Zhang aims to enhance Haitong International's research capabilities and implement the group's strategy for integrated research operations both domestically and internationally, leveraging resources from the headquarters and subsidiaries [1] - The strategy focuses on attracting foreign investment back to China and increasing foreign holdings in the Chinese stock market while also strengthening overseas research capabilities to meet the asset allocation needs of Chinese institutions abroad [1][2] Group 2 - Zhang Yidong emphasizes four key investment opportunities for 2026: growth sectors such as AI, military industry, energy technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals; strategic high-yield assets in a low-interest-rate environment; traditional industries benefiting from supply chain restructuring and globalization; and core assets like gold and rare earths amid global order restructuring [3] - Zhang has expressed strong confidence in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the importance of focusing on structural highlights and medium to long-term development while downplaying short-term economic fluctuations [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an expected improvement in nominal GDP growth and a moderate recovery in inflation compared to 2025 [2]

2月3日，现货金银日内走高。截至9:30，现货黄金涨至4852.47美元/盎司，日内涨4.15%。 白银价格持续反弹。截至09:34，现货白银涨幅扩大至8%，报85.5美元/盎司；纽约期银日内涨超11%，现报85.60美元/盎司。 黄金开年一路飙升至历史新高，1月30日却骤然遭遇20世纪80年代以来最大跌幅。更糟糕的是，2月2日，现货黄金再次一度暴跌约10%，逼近4400美元/关 口。据智通财经，黄金三十日波动率已攀升至44%以上，创2008年金融危机以来最高。 历史罕见！国投白银LOF跌超31% 有人称"两天亏掉一个月利润" 受国际银价大幅波动影响，2月2日，复牌即被牢牢封死跌停板的国投白银LOF成为市场关注焦点。 同日晚间，国投白银LOF最新公告称，鉴于近期白银国际主要市场价格出现显著波动，与上期所白银期货差异较大，国投瑞银经与相关基金托管人协商一 致，决定参考白银期货国际主要市场的价格变动幅度，对基金资产进行合理重估。 受估值方式调整影响，国投白银LOF 2月2日单日净值跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。同时，据此计算，目前二级市场价格溢价率达 109.92%。业内人士提醒，投资者不要盲目跟 ...