炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：华泰证券研究所） 节内海外中资股收涨，对投资者情绪影响偏正面，但突发的地缘问题或放大节前分歧，市场走势短期预测难度变大，但我们认为资金及海外地缘扰动大概 率为短期情绪冲击，不影响春季行情的向上趋势，基于PMI数据改善、市场微观流动性仍充裕、政策面也有积极信号，我们认为春季行情大概率继续演 绎。节奏上看，投资者情绪较高、资金供给不弱、经济数据有支撑是已知变量，AI链业绩印证、潜在降准、地缘问题后续走势是待验变量，将在1月下旬 逐步揭晓。 研报《春季行情有望继续演绎》2025年1月4日 何康 分析师 S0570520080004 | BRB318 王伟光 分析师 S0570523040001 03 宏观：浅析委内瑞拉石油产业变局的宏观影响 本文聚焦委内瑞拉石油及能源产业变局的潜在宏观影响。委内瑞拉石油储量占全球的17.5%、位居世界首位，同时拥有大量的其他能源和矿产品储备。短 期内，美委冲突升级可能会加剧全球大宗商品价格波动，推高部分避险资产价格。对于与委内瑞拉原油及其他贸易较为频繁的南美国家而言，短期内美委 冲突升级可能波及区域能 ...

中国国际问题研究院研究员、博鳌亚洲论坛研究院执行副院长杨希雨。主办方供图 在围绕"地缘秩序演变"的分享中，中国国际问题研究院研究员、博鳌亚洲论坛研究院执行副院长杨希雨表示，以"数智技术"为主要动力推动的新工业化进 程，正重塑国际政治经济与安全关系，甚至全球治理机制。 他同时指出，新技术革命正推动全球经济数字化转型、全球能源结构转型。新技术革命和高科技竞争，正重新界定国家安全的内涵和外延。 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、交通银行原首席经济学家连平。主办方供图 封面新闻记者 张馨心 当全球秩序重构与技术变革交织，如何在变局中锚定机遇？ 1月3日—4日，光亚商学第九届经济论坛在河南郑州举行。此次论坛围绕变局与机遇，从宏观 趋势解码到微观战略落地，从存量突围路径到增量创造密码，着力探寻重构增长逻辑的动力。 德勤中国首席经济学家、清华大学客座教授许思涛。主办方供图 "2025年全球经济经历了宏观挑战和微观机遇的'拔河比赛'。"德勤中国首席经济学家、清华大学客座教授许思涛在题为《全球变局—宏观对策及微观机 遇》的分享中提出思考——全球或许能够承受18%的平均关税水平，但产业政策的过度泛化可能将加剧通胀压力。 在他看来，推动 ...

F 第一财经主持 粤凯硕 两说 Business Insights 新加坡驻联合国前大使马凯硕以跨越东西方的独特视角，向我们揭示了一个正在剧变的世界图景： 亚洲世纪即将到来，西方主导的旧秩序正被多元文明共生的新格局所取代。在这场深度对话中，他不仅 剖析了中美战略博弈的本质——一方谋划长远，一方困于短视，更预言了亚洲世纪的真正内涵：这不是 单一国家的崛起，而是整个文明板块的复兴。当人类首次共同置身于"地球方舟"之上，我们能否超越零 和博弈，学会在竞争中共存？这不仅关乎大国角力，更考验着整个人类文明的智慧。一场关于未来世界 秩序的深刻思考，即将展开。 更多精彩内容，敬请关注12月10日周三晚22:30 东方卫视 《两说》节目， 第一财经 12月13日周六晚22:00 播出。 Business Insights 12\10 22:30 12\13 22:00 东方卫视首播 第一财经播出 新加坡驻联合国前大使 《中国的选择》《亚洲的21世纪》作者 ...

Core Insights - The investment landscape is evolving with a focus on diversified asset allocation, particularly in the context of the upcoming "post-4000 point era" in A-shares, where investors are keen on identifying opportunities and risks in AI technology and other sectors [1] Fragment 1: New World Outline - The three main themes for 2023 are global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation, while 2024 will focus on the "exceptionalism" of the U.S. and weak domestic prices [2] - By 2025, the themes will shift to global order reconstruction, asset revaluation in China, deepening AI chains, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market is experiencing a reconfiguration due to geopolitical shifts and the AI investment boom, which is expected to drive performance in sectors like optical modules [2] Fragment 2: AI Bubble Debate - The existence of a bubble in AI investments is complex; some level of speculation can drive technological advancement [6][8] - Key risks include the inability to convert capital expenditure into profit, excessive leverage, and tightening monetary policy [8] - Investors should focus on sectors directly benefiting from AI advancements and maintain a diversified approach to mitigate risks [8] Fragment 3: Macro Environment for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on technology and industry [9] - The U.S. midterm elections may influence domestic policies, with a potential focus on growth and price stability [11] Fragment 4: Global Manufacturing Cycle - A potential upturn in the global manufacturing cycle is anticipated in 2026, following disruptions caused by tariffs [15] - The supportive environment for this cycle includes fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination among major economies [15] Fragment 5: Capital Reallocation - The trend of "capital relocation" is significant, with a notable decrease in the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization, indicating ongoing reallocation needs [18] - The current environment favors stable investment products like "fixed income+" and FOFs, which are gaining traction among cautious investors [20]

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - The current global economic landscape is characterized by significant challenges such as slowing growth, fiscal vulnerabilities, and increasing macro-financial risks due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, technological revolutions, and climate change [1][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, indicating a cautious outlook despite being higher than previous predictions [4] Group 2: Systemic Risks in the Global Economy - Martin Wolf highlights three areas of vulnerability that require attention: the fragility of the financial system, the instability of political order, and ecological vulnerabilities, which together exacerbate systemic risks in the global economy [6][7] - The sustainability of U.S. government debt is a critical concern, with potential implications for market stability if debt levels rise to 140%-150% of GDP, which could lead to a crisis in the U.S. dollar system [7] Group 3: Political and Ecological Vulnerabilities - The long-term shift in U.S. policy towards protectionism and populism is seen as a permanent feature that will significantly impact global economic development, necessitating countries to devise their own strategies for cooperation [9] - Climate change remains a pressing global issue, with the need for international collaboration on technology sharing and funding to ensure progress in decarbonization efforts, particularly emphasizing China's role as the largest carbon emitter [11] Group 4: Globalization and Trade Dynamics - Despite facing setbacks, globalization is expected to continue progressing, albeit with a potential decline in commodity trade, and the global monetary landscape may shift towards a multipolar structure, diminishing the dominance of the U.S. dollar [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of the AI revolution, comparing it to previous major revolutions like the Industrial Revolution, and suggests that AI may fundamentally reshape society, economy, and human relationships [6][9]. Group 1: Nature of the AI Revolution - The AI revolution is seen as a continuation of technology's role in enhancing human capabilities, shifting from physical to cognitive enhancements [7]. - AI is expected to accelerate the cycle of discovery and innovation, leading to exponential growth in technology and knowledge [8]. Group 2: Impact on Work and Society - The rise of AI may lead to the emergence of a "leisure class," where many professional jobs are replaced by AI, resulting in fewer people needing to work [11][12]. - Education will need to shift from preparing individuals for traditional jobs to teaching them how to live creatively and meaningfully in a world where work is not the primary focus [14]. Group 3: Challenges to Human Creativity - AI's capabilities in creative fields challenge the unique value of human creativity, as it can produce works indistinguishable from those created by humans [15]. Group 4: Economic and Social Structures - The traditional economic model based on work for income is being challenged, leading to discussions about basic income and wealth distribution in a potential "workless society" [17]. - The AI revolution could lead to a "post-scarcity" society, but there are concerns about wealth concentration and inequality [18]. Group 5: Knowledge and Intellectual Property - The concept of intellectual property may need to be redefined in an AI-driven world, where contributions to creative works are increasingly collaborative and difficult to attribute [19]. Group 6: Social Relationships and AI - AI is expected to decentralize social activities and relationships, potentially transforming how humans interact with each other and with AI [21][23]. Group 7: Global Implications - AI has the potential to foster global cooperation and reduce nationalism, but it may also reshape global power dynamics and economic structures [25][26]. Conclusion - The future of AI development depends on responsible practices that consider ethical, social, and ecological impacts, aiming for a better world with reduced conflict and poverty [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global assets in October 2025, highlighting the significant movements in various markets and the implications for investors [2]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In October 2025, global asset performance ranked as follows: global stocks (2.29%) > US dollar (2.08%) > commodities (1.28%) > RMB (0.02%) > 0% > global bonds (-0.25%) [2]. - The S&P 500 index has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 2011, raising concerns about its sustainability [4][13]. - Following the midterm elections, Argentine assets surged over 20% as President Milei's party won decisively, alleviating fears of economic crisis [4][18]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - A record 54% of global fund managers believe AI tech stocks are in a bubble, up from 38% in September, indicating growing caution in the tech sector [4][24]. - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Big Seven" US tech stocks has risen to 70.2% compared to the S&P 500, reflecting optimism about their growth potential [4][30]. - The dollar index has turned bullish, with a 1.95% increase in October, driven by hawkish Fed signals and inflation concerns [4][33]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Trends - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has flattened as expectations for interest rate hikes increase, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds narrowing to 183 basis points [4][36]. - The Federal Reserve announced an early end to its balance sheet reduction, having shrunk its balance sheet by over $2.4 trillion since June 2022, indicating tightening liquidity in the banking system [4][39]. - Gold's historical volatility has surged, with a gap of over 11 points compared to the S&P 500, the highest since 2020, suggesting a strategic bullish outlook on gold [4][42]. Group 4: Commodity Market Developments - LME copper prices reached a historical high of over $11,000 per ton amid improving US-China trade relations and increased demand from the AI and renewable energy sectors [4][45].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the gold market and its dynamics amid global economic and political changes, highlighting the significance of gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Increase**: As of May 2024, gold prices have risen by 20% to $2,500 per ounce, driven by non-traditional factors amid a global restructuring of order [1][2]. 2. **Historical Context**: Historical data indicates that periods of global order restructuring typically see gold prices increase by 3-5 times, suggesting potential for further price increases if the current restructuring continues [1][6]. 3. **GLOI Index**: The newly introduced "Gold Implied Order Restructuring Index" (GLOI) has reached peak levels similar to those during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, indicating significant potential for gold price increases if global order continues to shift [1][2][23]. 4. **Emerging Markets**: The rising share of emerging markets in the global economy poses challenges to the current international monetary system, potentially driving up gold prices as these countries seek to adjust their reserve currency structures [15]. 5. **Extreme Scenarios**: Various extreme scenarios, such as increased gold reserves in emerging markets or a collapse of cryptocurrencies, could lead to substantial increases in gold prices, potentially reaching $30,000 to $90,000 per ounce under certain conditions [19][22]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment Timing**: The current period is deemed an opportune time for investing in gold due to the ongoing restructuring of global order, which increases uncertainty for assets tied to specific national credits [4][6]. 2. **Gold as an Asset**: Gold is characterized by its lack of interest generation, scarcity, and long-standing consensus as a store of value, making it a unique investment during various economic cycles [3][9]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The relationship between gold, the US dollar index, and inflation has begun to decouple, indicating that traditional pricing models may no longer adequately explain gold price movements [18]. 4. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook favors physical gold over paper gold due to its scarcity and potential premium, while paper gold serves as a more flexible hedging tool in the short term [8][12]. 5. **Political and Military Factors**: Political instability and military conflicts have historically boosted demand for gold, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [16][18]. Conclusion - The gold market is currently experiencing significant changes influenced by global political, economic, and military dynamics. The potential for substantial price increases exists, particularly if extreme scenarios unfold. Investors are encouraged to consider gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios during this period of uncertainty [26].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, indicating a significant trust crisis in the global monetary system [3] - Factors contributing to this surge include the weakening of the US dollar due to rising national debt and interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and a trend of central banks, particularly in emerging markets, increasing gold reserves [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4300 per ounce, suggesting that gold may play a multifaceted role as an anti-inflation, safe-haven, and settlement currency [3] Group 2: Political Instability in France - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Cornu after just 27 days highlights a deepening political crisis in France, marked by a failure to pass a significant budget proposal [3] - France's economic stagnation, with GDP growth below 1% for three consecutive years and youth unemployment exceeding 20%, reflects broader issues within the European governance model [3] - The political turmoil in France has led to a depreciation of the euro, which has fallen below 1.06 against the dollar, and may impact France's military support for Ukraine [3] Group 3: OpenAI and the AI Ecosystem - OpenAI's recent developer day introduced significant advancements, including AgentKit and Codex Pro, which aim to lower development barriers and enhance code generation accuracy [3] - The competition for dominance in the AI ecosystem is intensifying, with major companies integrating OpenAI's technology into their platforms, indicating a shift in workplace dynamics [3] - Ethical challenges surrounding AI, including job displacement and regulatory gaps, are becoming increasingly prominent as the technology evolves [3] Group 4: Interconnected Global Impacts - The rise in gold prices, depreciation of the euro, and political instability in France are interconnected, creating a complex triangle of financial, political, and technological challenges [3] - A new cold war dynamic is emerging, characterized by competition between the US, China, and the EU in technology and currency [3] - Public awareness and activism are increasing, with movements demanding transparency in AI algorithms and compensation for job losses due to automation [3] Group 5: Future Scenarios - Three potential future scenarios for 2026 include escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to resource wars, the establishment of an "AI United Nations" under the leadership of companies like OpenAI, and a rebalancing of power among the US, China, and the EU [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped to zero, causing significant pressure on American farmers and the Trump administration [1][3] - China's strategic reserve of soybeans and diversified import channels have positioned it advantageously in negotiations, with a notable increase in imports from Brazil and Argentina [3][5] - Putin's recent remarks on "de-dollarization" indicate a shift in Russia's stance, emphasizing that the country is not actively pursuing a de-dollarization policy but is restricted from using the dollar [5][7] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - U.S. soybean exports to China were valued at $12 billion last year, accounting for over half of total U.S. soybean exports, but have now fallen to zero [1] - The storage capacity for new soybean harvests is critically low, with over 90% of storage used, leading to potential losses for farmers [1] - The Indiana Farmers Association and other agricultural groups have urged the White House to address the high tariffs that have eliminated the Chinese market for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 2: China's Import Strategy - China imported nearly 14 million tons of soybeans a month prior to Trump's comments, marking the second-highest record, primarily from Brazil and Argentina [3] - South American soybeans are priced 23% lower than U.S. products due to tariff advantages, making them the preferred choice for China [3] - China's imports of energy products from the U.S. have also plummeted to nearly zero in the first eight months of the year [3] Group 3: Russia's Economic Position - Putin's adjustment on the de-dollarization narrative reflects the economic realities faced by Russia, which struggles to utilize the yuan earned from energy exports for trade with non-CIS countries [5][7] - The trade settlement in local currencies between Russia and China has reached 90%, but challenges remain in trading with other nations [5][7] - The need for Russia to find alternative financial pathways is underscored by India's refusal to use yuan for oil payments, leading to a surplus of unusable rupees [7] Group 4: Political Implications - The agricultural states are crucial for the Republican Party, and the soybean issue poses a significant political challenge for Trump [3] - The upcoming APEC summit is seen as a critical opportunity for U.S.-China discussions, with potential implications for global trade dynamics [11] - Trump's administration is preparing for negotiations, with soybean trade and currency issues likely to be central topics [11]