世界黄金协会分析师回应市场关切，指出黄金波动率仍与长期平均水平一致。他们认为，在股债相关性上升的环境下，黄金仍是投资组合分散风险的关键工 具。 在关税不确定性、通胀压力以及地缘经济冲突的背景下，市场、宏观和地缘政治风险层出不穷，加剧了市场波动。 为了解今年与去年相比投资者所应对的动荡程度，图表1展示了黄金、美国股票及美国国债的实际波动率。在地缘政治与地缘经济环境加剧的推动下，股票 和黄金市场波动率均有所上升，2025年初首次宣布关税相关政策前后，股票波动率出现显著飙升。另一方面，美国国债波动率则呈下降趋势。总体而言，所 有资产类别的波动率仍基本与其长期平均水平持平。 图表1：2025年股票和黄金波动率均有所增加，黄金波动率基本持平于长期平均水平 尽管今年黄金波动率随其强劲的价格上涨而上升，但仍基本与其长期平均水平一致，且远低于以往类似强劲价格表现时期的水平（图表2）。这表明，尽管 近期价格表现强劲，黄金走势仍较为平稳有序。 图表2：尽管2025年波动性有所上升，但黄金的年化波动率仍远低于此前的高点 这对投资组合意味着什么？ 股票波动率的上升，加之股票与债券之间的正相关性，导致投资组合风险上升——这提醒投资者需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant decline on October 21, with COMEX gold futures and London gold spot prices dropping over 5%, and London silver spot prices falling more than 7% [1][8]. Volatility Indicators - The GVZ index, which measures expected volatility in the gold market, surged by 20.87% on October 16, reaching a new high since April, indicating increased market risk [1][5]. - The GVZ index has been rising since October 6, moving out of the normal volatility range of 15 to 25, and reached above 30, signaling heightened potential price fluctuations [5][6]. Market Reactions - Following the volatility increase, both domestic and international exchanges issued risk warnings, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced measures to adjust margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver futures [6][9]. - On October 21, gold prices fell sharply after failing to break through previous highs, with London gold spot prices dropping from $4,381.48 to $4,002.89 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures falling from $4,398 to $4,021.20 per ounce [8][9]. Stock Market Sentiment - The secondary market has shown a cautious attitude towards gold stocks, with a divergence between gold prices and stock performance. For instance, while London gold rose by about 10% in October, stocks like Zijin Mining only increased by 1.05% [13][14]. - The Wind precious metals index has seen a maximum drawdown of approximately 16.4% from mid-October highs, with some stocks experiencing drawdowns exceeding 20% [14][19]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent price corrections, the long-term trend for precious metals remains bullish, supported by a declining dollar credit. The sector is viewed as having strategic allocation value [11][19]. - If gold and silver prices rise again but individual stocks like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold do not follow suit, it may indicate a nearing cyclical peak [23].

（原标题：国际金价波动风险骤增，多只黄金股最大回撤已超20%） 没有只涨不跌的商品。 10月21日，全球贵金属市场大幅杀跌，COMEX黄金期货、伦敦金现货跌幅均超过5%，伦敦银现货跌幅更是超过7%。 在此之前，由于短期波动率指数的快速增加，国内外各家交易所与期货机构已经作出了风险提示。 10月16日，衡量黄金市场预期波动率的GVZ指标大涨20.87%，创出今年4月以来的新高，同日上海黄金交易所发布风险提示；10月17日，GVZ指 标再次达到33的相对高点，市场步入高烈度波动区域，当日上期所宣布"提保扩板"。 "外盘及国内的价格波动率显著抬升后，COMEX及国内交易所均提保并提示风险，行情过热的风险进一步显现。"中信期货贵金属研究员朱善颖对 记者指出。 本报近期报道也曾指出，10月初至10月20日，伦敦金现货继续冲高，但紫金矿业、山东黄金等个股却是冲高回落，股价与金价出现了阶段性背 离，显示出二级市场投资者的态度逐步趋于谨慎。 因为股价下跌领先于金价，近期Wind贵金属指数较10月中旬高点的最大回撤幅度也已经达到16.4%左右。 与其他商品相比，黄金因为多了金融属性，并且是全球定价的商品，价格形成极为复杂，甚至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of gold has surged, experiencing a sharp decline followed by a sudden reversal, raising questions for retail investors about whether to chase gains or cut losses [1] Group 1 - Gold's volatility has increased significantly, indicating a turbulent market environment [1] - The market sentiment is fluctuating, leading to uncertainty among investors regarding their trading strategies [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a trader, providing insights into the current gold market dynamics [1]