Core Viewpoint - International gold prices fell below the $3,900 mark on October 28, raising concerns among investors about the potential for a prolonged bear market similar to the longest one experienced from the 1980s to the late 1990s [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Short-term downward pressure on gold prices is expected due to multiple factors diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The current economic environment and monetary policies differ significantly from those in the past, suggesting that a repeat of the long-term decline in gold prices is unlikely [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The likelihood of a long-term weakening of the US dollar is high, which may lead to increased global liquidity [1] - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations are factors that could stabilize gold prices after the short-term pressures are released [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached levels that are difficult for the average person to comprehend, and its future trajectory remains uncertain, heavily influenced by market conditions and data analysis [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has surpassed the 4300 mark, leading to increased speculation and potential for further price increases, which may tempt investors to chase the highs [1]. - The external environment is unfavorable, as indicated by the rising gold prices, which are accompanied by significant volatility, exemplified by a recent drop from 4379 to 4278, a decline of 100 USD within a short time frame [4]. - The current trading environment for gold is characterized by extreme volatility, making it challenging for retail investors to participate effectively [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, it is advised that average investors refrain from participating in gold trading, as the situation has moved beyond typical trading strategies [6]. - The ongoing bull market for gold is expected to continue, but caution is advised in trading practices, emphasizing the importance of risk management and not rushing into trades [6]. - The market may experience rapid declines followed by recoveries, suggesting that investors should maintain liquidity and be prepared for future opportunities rather than chasing immediate gains [6].

10月14日，现货黄金首次站上4160美元/盎司，再度刷新历史最高价，今年累涨超1500美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货报4172.1美元/盎司，日内涨幅0.95%。 紧跟国际市场波动，国内金饰价格应声上涨，多个品牌金饰价格突破1200元/克。多家机构发布看多预测，断言黄金牛市根基未改。 然而，当市场沉浸于"黄金永远涨"的狂热叙事时，资深投资者更需一份冷静的清醒。历史反复证明，没有只涨不跌的市场，黄金的璀璨光芒背后，亦有漫 长而晦暗的熊市周期。今日，我们暂不歌颂牛市，而是回望那些曾被遗忘的角落，为当下可能过热的情绪注入一剂清醒。 1975-1976：短暂回调的启示，避险需求的脆弱性 布雷顿森林体系瓦解后的1974年，黄金迎来首轮暴涨，但狂欢仅持续一年便戛然而止。1975年2月至1976年8月，金价从195美元/盎司跌至102美元/盎司， 半年内腰斩。触发因素并非复杂的金融动荡，而是美国通胀的短暂回落与美元信用的阶段性修复。 当经济数据显示美国CPI同比从12%降至7%，市场对滞胀的担忧缓解，黄金的避险溢价迅速消退。这轮熊市虽仅持续18个月，却揭示了黄金的核心软肋： 其"避险属性"并非恒定，一旦宏观环境转向稳定， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the historical volatility of gold prices, highlighting that while current trends show a bullish sentiment, past experiences indicate that markets can and do experience significant downturns [2][7]. - Recent gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4160 per ounce and COMEX futures at $4172.1 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over $1500 per ounce [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with several brands exceeding 1200 yuan per gram, indicating a strong correlation with international market movements [2]. Group 2 - Historical analysis reveals that gold has experienced multiple significant bear markets, such as the 1975-1976 period where prices fell from $195 to $102 per ounce, demonstrating the fragility of gold's safe-haven demand [3]. - The bear market from 1980 to 1999 saw gold prices plummet from $850 to $250 per ounce, a decline of 70%, driven by aggressive interest rate hikes and a loss of faith in gold as a hard currency [4]. - During the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices dropped from $1033 to $680 per ounce, a 34% decrease, challenging the notion that gold always rises in times of crisis [5]. Group 3 - The period from 2011 to 2015 marked another significant downturn, with gold peaking at $1920 per ounce before falling to $1046, a 46% drop, influenced by the Federal Reserve's signals to taper quantitative easing [6]. - Current market conditions show signs of potential risk, with high speculative positions in COMEX gold futures and a strengthening dollar, which could lead to a reversal in sentiment and price declines [8]. - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach to gold investments, limiting exposure to no more than 10% of household assets and being cautious of emotional narratives surrounding gold prices [8].

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者陈汐 刘建中 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公 正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 黄金牛市。 作者 | 陈汐 刘建中 编辑 | 刘建中 责编 | 王 宁 来源 | 财经杂志 （ID：i-caijing） 本文是《黄金研究三部曲》的第二篇。第一篇为《跨越两千年，黄金还保值吗》 ，其主要结论是，"从西汉到金本位 解体之前，黄金的购买力基本稳定；而在金本位解体后，黄金大幅跑赢通胀。" 虽然从长期看黄金能跑赢通胀，但黄金价格波动幅度大，投资时机不佳可能造成巨大损失。 1980年1月黄金均价为755美元/盎司，之后出现了20年的黄金熊市，1999年12月黄金均价为280美元/盎司，跌幅 63%。 2011年11月黄金均价为1771美元/盎司，之后是四年熊市，2015年12月黄金均价1062美元/盎司，跌幅40%。 财经杂志 . 黄金价格的巨幅波动并不是现代社会的特有现象。宋太宗赵光义当政的太平兴国二年（公元977年），每两黄金（北宋 一两为40克）可兑换1万枚铜钱 ...