Core Viewpoint - Bank of America has revised its outlook for Federal Reserve policy, now anticipating a rate cut in December [1] Group 1 - The adjustment in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook reflects changing economic conditions and market expectations [1] - The expectation of a December rate cut indicates a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [1] - This change may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics leading up to the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong rebound, returning above the 30-day and 5-10 day short-term moving averages, indicating an increased bullish outlook for the market [1][3] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4067.47 per ounce, dipped to a daily low of $4040.02, and then rebounded to a daily high of $4139.71, closing at $4134.55, with a daily fluctuation of $99.69 and a gain of $67.08, or 1.65% [3] Influencing Factors - The market was initially affected by a weakening adjustment pattern, but buying support from the middle band helped halt the decline and initiate a rebound [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December surged from 40% to 81%, influenced by dovish comments from Fed officials Waller and Daly [3] - Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including air raid alerts in Kyiv and changes to peace plans, provided additional safe-haven premiums for gold [3]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust reported a silver ETF holding of 15,218.42 tons as of November 18, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - On November 18, the spot silver price closed at $50.67 per ounce, up 1.01%, with an intraday high of $51.17 and a low of $49.33 [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to a two-month high in mid-October, with continuing claims surpassing 1.9 million [3] - The Cleveland Fed reported that 39,000 Americans received layoff notices last month, and the ADP private employment report indicated an average of 2,500 net layoffs per week over the past four weeks [3] - Weak labor market data has increased market expectations for a rate cut in December, which is seen as beneficial for struggling gold and silver markets [3] - The CME FedWatch tool shows a 50% to 51% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, recovering from a low of 40% to 45% earlier in the week [3] Group 3 - Former President Trump indicated he is discussing potential replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with several "unexpected candidates" [4]

Core Insights - Analyst Adam Button indicates that since the "tariff day" low, the market has shown a pattern of stabilizing and then buying on dips whenever there is a downturn [1] - Recent market behavior has been inconsistent since late October, with momentum appearing and disappearing intermittently [1] - Concerns are raised regarding anxiety triggered by large-scale cloud computing companies ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, as well as expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - Despite Powell's statement on October 30 suggesting that a rate cut in December is unlikely, the market did not react with selling, which was expected [1] - The market took two weeks to price in the likelihood of a December rate cut, which has now decreased to 36% [1] - The recent market decline appears to lack any specific news event as a catalyst [1]

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明，FOMC整 体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看法存在很 大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。事实上，远非如此。"这已经超出了他们通常所 说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照预设路径前进"，这明显是一次旨在重新夺回一定的政策灵活性的努 力，以避免被迫采取某种特定行动。如果没有政府数据来帮助厘清经济状况怎么办？鲍威尔指出，这意 味着存在"非常高程度的不确定性，这可能成为谨慎行动的理由。" ...