策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 6 日 策略点评 2025 年 A 股业绩预告 整体景气延续修复，扩散度上行，景气行业趋势延续。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 截至 2026 年 2 月 5 日，全 A 共有 3 家公司披露 2025 年年报，84 家公司 发布业绩快报，2950 家公司发布业绩预告，合计披露 2025 年经营数据的 公司数为 3037 家，整体披露率 58.8%。 ◼ 样本公司 2025 年整体法口径下，盈利增速为 36.9%，较 2025Q3 的 14.3% 有所上行。中位数法口径下，盈利增速为 15.7%，较 2025Q3 的 3.2%有所 上行。 ◼ 样本公司（非金融）整体法口径下，2025 年整体法盈利增速为 247.0%， 较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The disclosure of annual performance forecasts for A-shares in 2025 has concluded, with approximately 3,000 listed companies providing important references for market performance predictions [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - A total of 2,956 companies in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 705 companies expecting profit increases, 420 companies expecting profit decreases, 987 companies continuing to incur losses, and 374 companies anticipating a turnaround to profitability [2]. - Ningbo Fubang (SH600768) is expected to see a net profit increase of over 30 times, leading the profit growth forecast, while Vanke A (SZ000002) is projected to incur a loss of 82 billion yuan, making it the "loss leader" [2]. - Guangdong Mingzhu (SH600382) and Sainuo Medical (SH688108) also expect significant net profit increases, with growth rates of 2,908.49% to 3,577.04% and 2,767% to 3,233%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Major Profit Increases - Ningbo Fubang's net profit is forecasted to increase by 3,099.59% to 4,379.43%, with an expected net profit of 50 million to 70 million yuan, primarily due to non-recurring gains from the sale of equity [2]. - Guangdong Mingzhu anticipates a net profit of approximately 166 million to 203 million yuan, driven by improved performance from its subsidiary and non-operating gains [3]. - Sainuo Medical expects a net profit of about 43 million to 50 million yuan, attributing the increase to revenue growth and reduced asset impairment losses [3]. Group 3: Major Profit Decreases - Heli Tai (SZ002217) is projected to experience the largest decrease in net profit, with an expected decline of 97.83% to 98.55%, resulting in a net profit of 22 million to 33 million yuan [4]. - The decline is attributed to the absence of non-recurring gains from debt restructuring in the previous year and a strategic shift in focus to general display and electronic paper businesses [4]. - Changhong High-Tech (SH605008) and Yuancheng Co. (SZ002692) also expect significant profit declines of 97.88% to 98.41% and 96.8%, respectively, due to market conditions and production adjustments [6]. Group 4: Significant Losses - Vanke A is expected to report a net loss of 82 billion yuan, an increase from a loss of approximately 49.48 billion yuan in the previous year, primarily due to a significant decrease in project settlement scale and low profit margins [7]. - Other real estate companies, such as Huaxia Happiness (SH600340) and Greenland Holdings (SH600606), are also projected to incur substantial losses of 16 billion to 24 billion yuan and 16 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - Companies outside the real estate sector, like Zhifei Biological (SZ300122), are also expected to report significant losses, with forecasts ranging from -10.698 billion to -13.726 billion yuan due to decreased vaccination demand [8]. Group 5: Performance Against Expectations - Among the 2,956 A-share companies that disclosed forecasts, 147 companies exceeded institutional consensus estimates, including Zijin Mining (SH601899) and Industrial Fulian (SH601138), with net profit forecasts significantly higher than expected [9]. - Conversely, 858 companies' forecasts fell short of institutional expectations, with notable examples including Muyuan Foods (SZ002714) and Shenghong Technology (SZ300476), which both reported lower-than-expected net profit forecasts [12].

Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, the disclosure rate of annual performance forecasts for A-shares is 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - The performance forecasts indicate that companies with significant net profit growth are primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [6][10]. - By January 19, 447 A-share companies have released annual performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, mainly in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), and chemicals [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the performance forecasts enter their peak disclosure period, the correlation between stock prices and performance is expected to increase significantly in the latter half of January, with market sentiment returning to rationality [5]. - The market is likely to undergo a structural adjustment based on fundamentals, with previous hot sectors facing performance validation, while some low-performing but high-quality sectors may attract new capital inflows [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The sectors with upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (especially in upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military, automotive), and cyclical industries (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [12][13]. - The industries with lower performance growth since the last market rally include AI computing power, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors like steel and glass fiber [14].