27日早盘，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，失守3300点；A股市场超2900股飘绿。 东莞证券表示，进入2026年，宏观政策围绕"十五五"规划开局部署，以财政金融协同扩大内需为主线， 在货币政策、财政政策、进出口调控与房地产市场等领域精准协同、综合发力，统筹短期稳增长与长期 育动能。随着结构性货币政策工具落地、财政补贴直达与地方细则实施，内需潜力有望持续释放， 为"十五五"起步之年实现经济质的有效提升与量的合理增长奠定坚实基础。板块选择方面，建议重点关 注红利、TMT、电力设备等板块。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.17%报4139.53点，深证成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌1.46%，沪深北三市合计成交 约1.6万亿元。 盘面上看，造纸、半导体、建材等板块走低，电力、煤炭、有色、钢铁、农业等板块拉升，算力、AI 应用、稀土概念等活跃。 ...

Market Overview - The market opened high and closed strong, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rising over 1% [2][3] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4147.23, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14475.87, up 1.29% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (up 4.69%), Non-ferrous Metals (up 3.48%), and Building Materials (up 2.75%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Media (down 1.15%) and Banking (down 0.46%) lagged behind [2] Concept Indices - Concept indices that performed well included Zinc Metals, Titanium Dioxide, and Phosphate Chemicals, with gains of 4.94%, 4.85%, and 4.51% respectively [2][3] - Underperforming concepts included Sora Concept (down 0.91%) and Military Restructuring Concept (down 0.89%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a high-probability window for upward movement post-holiday, supported by macro policies and industry catalysts [4] - The anticipated return of capital from pre-holiday cashing out is expected to provide ongoing momentum for future increases [4] - Key sectors to focus on include Dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and Power Equipment [4]

证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股马年开门红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4117.41 | 0.87% | 35.34 | | | 深证成指 | 14291.57 | 1.36% | 191.38 | | | 沪深 300 | 4707.54 | 1.01% | 47.14 | | | 创业板 | 3308.26 | 0.99% | 32.31 | | | 科创 50 | 1465.37 | -0.34% | -4.97 | | | 北证 50 | 1535.43 | 0.37% | 5.66 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 石油石化 | 5.53% | 传媒 | -3.20 ...

每经记者｜杜波 每经编辑｜段炼 记者|杜波 编辑|段炼 杜恒峰 校对|许绍航 动"。刘刚认为，短期看，市场或有超调，回撤后短期可能存在向上修复空间。中期看，基准情形下，我们判断港股盈利增长3%~4%与景气结构主线情绪 修复，或推动恒指中枢上行至28000~29000点左右。 招商证券策略研究团队表示，"春节后，随着南下资金的流入，也将为港股带来流动性支持。结构上，推荐科技（AI算力与应用）、非银（保险）与红 利。"其中，恒生科技的估值底和政策底逐步夯实，但盈利底和流动性拐点仍需确认，重点关注未来市场对恒生科技盈利预期的修正，以及美联储政策预 期变化对恒生科技的催化。一旦降息预期重新稳固，港股作为离岸市场将显著受益。 （免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。） 互联网科技股齐跌，腾讯控股跌近3.3%，阿里巴巴跌2.7%，金山云跌5%，快手、小米等跌逾2%。 | 1 | 腾讯控股 | -3.346% 188.29亿 520.000 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 00700 | | | | 2 | 小米集团－W | 35.740 - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the low interest rate environment is fostering a stable compounding effect of free cash flow, which is becoming a cornerstone for a long-term bull market [1] - The market is shifting its focus from front-end expansion to back-end prudent management of cash flow accumulation, which will support long-term valuations [1] - The value ETF and free cash flow ETF from E Fund have seen significant net subscriptions, with 22 million and 10 million units respectively in the morning session [1] Group 2 - The National Index of Free Cash Flow consists of 100 stocks with high free cash flow levels, with over 70% of its composition in industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors, combining high dividends and growth potential [4] - Historical performance data shows that the National Value 100 Index and the National Free Cash Flow Index have had varying returns over the years, with the latter showing a 57% increase in 2014 and a 32% increase in 2017 [4] - The free cash flow ETF has a low fee rate of 0.15% plus an additional 0.05%, making it the only ETF linked to this specific index [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a seven-day rise, but trading volume continued to shrink, leading to a significant "seesaw" effect in capital allocation and accelerated sector rotation [1] - Ahead of the Spring Festival holiday, funds are divided into two camps: one showing cautious sentiment favoring dividend and free cash flow ETFs, while the other is positioning for a rebound after the holiday [1] - Major ETFs that received significant net subscriptions from external funds include the ChiNext ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with industry-specific ETFs like satellite, robotics, AI, semiconductor equipment, and chemical ETFs also seeing strong inflows [1] Group 2 - According to Wang Bo from Huaxia Fund, the reduction in trading volume before the holiday is normal, and there is a general optimistic expectation for the February market, although a short-term recovery in market sentiment will take time [2] - The investment strategy suggested includes maintaining a balanced allocation across technology, cyclical, and consumer sectors through broad-based ETFs like the Hu-Shen 300 ETF [2] - The recent increase in January PPI by 0.4% month-on-month has catalyzed price increases in the chemical sector, while positive developments in robotics and AI models are also emerging [1][2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in the Hong Kong stock market, with technology and telecommunications sectors dragging down the Hang Seng Index, while other industries have shown positive returns. The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Total Return Index has reached a historical high, and the relatively balanced Hong Kong Stock Connect Index has outperformed the A-share CSI 800 Index [2][13]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has faced pressure from short sellers, exacerbated by multiple narratives, including concerns over tax policy adjustments and the potential disruption of AI on traditional business models, leading to a negative sentiment in the market [2][13]. Group 2 - The outlook suggests that the Hong Kong market may see an influx of foreign capital in 2026 due to the ongoing loose liquidity environment and the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. Recent trends indicate a significant increase in net inflows from the Stock Connect program, particularly into technology stocks that have experienced substantial declines [3][24]. - Domestic investors are also accelerating their investments in Hong Kong stocks, taking advantage of market adjustments. The average daily net inflow from the Stock Connect has rebounded to a high level not seen since 2024, indicating renewed interest in the market [3][24]. Group 3 - The report recommends a strategy of combining "technology as a core holding + cyclical recovery + beta opportunities in dividends" to embrace the upcoming spring market. Current market sentiment is at a relatively low point, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound [4][31]. - Technology remains a long-term focus, with AI expected to be a key driver. The report notes that leading internet and application companies have already priced in pessimistic expectations, making them attractive for investment as they are near historical valuation lows [4][31]. Group 4 - The cyclical leaders in the Hong Kong market are expected to see improvements as the Chinese economy transitions towards "slower growth + increased efficiency." This shift is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and gradually restore profitability for leading companies in sectors such as chemicals, real estate, and machinery [4][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer data during the Spring Festival as a potential catalyst for market performance, particularly for consumer service leaders in sectors like gaming, dining, and travel [4][34]. Group 5 - The report identifies that the ongoing geopolitical landscape in 2026 is more favorable for Chinese assets, with the risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year U.S. Treasury yields being significantly higher than that of developed markets. This situation is expected to attract more foreign capital to Hong Kong stocks [5][22]. - A stable RMB is projected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, with historical trends indicating that significant RMB appreciation often correlates with rising Hong Kong stock prices [5][22].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a pattern of reduced volume and mixed fluctuations, with essential consumer and industrial sectors leading weekly gains[1] - The growth style's congestion level has decreased over the past two weeks, but remains lower than that of high-quality and growth stocks in absolute terms[1] Industry Insights - Congestion levels for agricultural products and banks have increased, while transportation and telecommunications sectors lag behind in weekly trading congestion[1] - Essential consumer and industrial sectors showed strong weekly performance, indicating a potential shift in market focus[4] Investment Trends - Institutional funds generally experienced a pullback as growth stocks declined, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking among funds[4] - The Longjiang Manufacturing Champions and Low-Carbon Leaders indices performed well, highlighting specific thematic investment opportunities[4] Performance Metrics - The growth style indices showed a notable decline, with the Longjiang Growth Index down by 4.08% and the Longjiang High Valuation Index down by 6.20%[21] - In contrast, the Longjiang Low Valuation Index recorded a modest gain of 0.56%, indicating a preference for value-oriented investments during this period[31]

上述29只基金中，有21只属于权益类基金。整体来看，权益类基金正在引领春节前后的公募基金发行。深圳市前海排排网 基金销售有限责任公司公募产品运营曾方芳向《证券日报》记者表示，公募机构在春节前后积极布局权益类基金，主要原因有 三方面：一是当前权益市场估值具备吸引力，节后政策与流动性环境预期偏暖，春季行情可期；二是年初居民资金季节性回 流，叠加长期资产配置向权益类资产转移的趋势，形成有利的发行窗口；三是监管层积极引导长期资金入市，公募机构顺势布 局，以匹配居民理财需求与市场结构性机遇。 本报记者 方凌晨 春节临近，公募基金新产品布局仍在继续。2月9日，鑫元中证港股通科技指数、招商裕田混合发起式、中信建投双颐3个 月持有期债券、上银稳健睿享三个月持有（FOF）等4只基金（不同份额合并计算，下同）正式开始发行。 Wind资讯数据显示，自2月9日起，未来三周进入发售期的基金共计29只。其中，偏股混合型基金数量居首，达10只；被动 指数型基金数量紧随其后，为8只；混合型FOF基金数量为6只；此外，混合债券型二级基金、偏债混合型基金、普通股票型基 金、增强指数型基金数量分别为2只、1只、1只、1只。 摩根士丹利基金权益投资 ...

Group 1 - The overall fund position decreased marginally in Q4 2025, with a significant increase in the allocation to the CSI 300 index [6][14][23] - The allocation to the ChiNext board increased by 1.35 percentage points to 20.49%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 1.17 percentage points to 65.64% [14][21] - The allocation to cyclical sectors increased, while technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors saw a decrease in allocation [7][27] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, public funds increased their allocation to cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to technology, consumer, and manufacturing sectors [7][24] - The allocation to materials and mining sectors increased by 3.11 percentage points to 13.51%, while the allocation to information technology and hardware decreased by 2.45 percentage points to 26.23% [27][32] - The telecommunications sector saw an increase in allocation, while the electronics, healthcare, and media sectors experienced a significant decline [7][32] Group 3 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors increased, with the high-dividend industry holding rising by 1.18 percentage points to 5.88% [7] - The allocation to export-related sectors showed mixed results, with an increase in home appliances by 0.18 percentage points to 2.73% and a decrease in semiconductors by 0.39 percentage points to 12.52% [7] - The allocation to core assets decreased, particularly in the power and new energy equipment and food and beverage sectors [7][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 15.61%, up by 2 percentage points from Q3 2025 [23] - The allocation to the telecommunications sector was notably increased, while the allocation to AI applications and quantum technology sectors was reduced [7][32]