今日，美国公布的重磅数据使得美联储2026年降息的次数达到两次，这个预期越来越强烈。北京时间12 月16日晚间，美国劳工统计局一次性公布了11月非农就业数据，其中美国11月失业率意外升至4.6%， 创下2021年9月以来的新高。这很可能是促使美联储进一步降息的关键因素，在非农就业数据公布之 后，交易员押注美联储2026年降息两次，从而将基准利率降到3%至3.25%。受此影响，美元指数直线跳 水，一度跌破98，为10月6日以来的首次。 美联储12月份进行了本年度的第三次降息，25个基点，延续了这轮降息周期，预计2026年降息的次数可 能会达到两次。这样的话，美国基准利率进一步下降，会使美元指数持续回落，从而推动非美货币升 值。近日人民币汇率不断升值，目前已经突破了7.05，达到7.045，逼近7.0大关，预计2026年人民币对 美元的汇率可能会回到六字头。美联储降息对于美元指数是一个很大的冲击，同时也使得非美货币升值 在加速。 美联储加速降息主要是来应对美国就业市场正在加速降温的局面。美国8月非农新增就业数据由-0.4万 人修正至-2.6万人，9月非农就业新增就业数据由11.9万人修正至10.8万人。美国商务部 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [1] - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.32% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an increase in the forecast for rate cuts this year from 2 to 3, with expectations for two more cuts after the recent one [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut may trigger a global wave of rate cuts, with significant room for monetary policy easing in China [3] - The market's risk appetite may slightly improve due to the Fed's neutral stance, and ongoing monitoring of the U.S. economic fundamentals is necessary [3] - Historical data indicates that during preventive rate cut periods, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in growth sectors tend to perform well, with technology stocks expected to benefit from the current weak dollar cycle [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will continue to cut rates until January 2026, with the federal funds rate eventually dropping to a target range of 3.00% to 3.25% [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points during the Fed's rate cut cycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with significant increases in market capitalization and stock indices, indicating a potential long-term bullish outlook [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, closing at 3766.21 points, up 1.04%, with the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also showing gains [3]. - A-share trading volume has exceeded 20 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days, reflecting heightened market activity [3]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - Various types of capital, including insurance funds, foreign investment, retail investors, and private equity, are entering the market, contributing to the bullish trend [3][4][5]. - Foreign investment has reversed a two-year trend of net selling, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Insurance funds have seen a significant increase in their equity investment ratio, with total assets under management reaching 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [5][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - While some retail investors are entering the market, many remain cautious, as indicated by the relatively low number of new fund subscriptions and accounts compared to earlier in the year [9][10]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July was 1.46 million, showing a 19.29% increase from the previous month, but still below earlier peaks [9]. Group 4: Insurance Fund Strategies - Insurance funds are focusing on high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking and telecommunications sectors, reflecting a strategy of stable returns [6][8]. - The regulatory environment has become more favorable for insurance investments, with increased limits on equity investment ratios, suggesting further potential for capital inflows [7][8]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the current bull market will continue, with a focus on steady growth and sector rotation, particularly in previously undervalued stocks [12][13]. - The market's ability to maintain high trading volumes and a stable upward trend is seen as a positive indicator for future performance [12][13].