Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the current turmoil in the global financial market, the upward trend of the global economy has not changed substantially. The impact of US tariffs on the global economy is less than the nominal figure, China will boost domestic consumption, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that the current stock market sell - off may turn into a longer - lasting cyclical bear market as the risk of economic recession rises. A cyclical bear market usually lasts about two years and takes five years to recover [1] - The continuous slump in the US Treasury market signals a serious systemic risk, potentially leading to a liquidity crisis similar to that in March 2020 [1] - The yield of 30 - year US Treasury bonds has risen by 56 basis points in less than three trading days since last Friday, likely due to forced liquidation [1] - Nomura's Ryan Plantz warns that the US Treasury market is experiencing large - scale unwinding and a liquidity vacuum [1] - High - risk leveraged ETFs have suffered a historic collapse, losing over $25 billion in two trading days. The semiconductor and technology stock ETFs have been hit hard, with a quadruple - leveraged semiconductor ETF in Ireland plunging 59.1% in two days [1] - US stocks have lost over $10 trillion in three days, the US Treasury yield has soared, and the market panic index VIX has reached a post - pandemic high. Blackstone believes that tariff policies will keep interest rates and long - term bond yields high [1] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a "once - in - a - lifetime" systemic collapse of the global monetary, political, and geopolitical order. Tariff issues reflect global imbalances in capital and trade [1] - Morgan Stanley reports that hedge funds have sold stocks worth $375 billion [1] Global Economic Logic - The substantial increase in US tariffs has less real impact on the global economy than the nominal figure due to domestic demand in the US and trade diversion. China will boost domestic consumption with extraordinary measures, Germany's fiscal expansion policy is passed, European manufacturing is booming, and AI is set to enhance global productivity. AI humanoid robots may enter mass production in 2025 [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、市场预计欧央行 4 月 17 日降息的概率已从 70%跃升至 90%，并预计年内还将有 | | | | | 两到三次降息。分析称，特朗普的关税政策重燃欧元区的通缩担忧，投资者和政策 | | | | | 制定者面临的不再是"是否降息"的问题，而是"降息幅度是否足够"的问题。 | | | | | 2、美国 10 年期美国国债收益率大幅飙升 19 个基点，反映了对冲基金正拼命削减 | | | | | 杠杆，以及投资者纷纷涌向现金以避开市场的波动。 | | | | | 3、投资者期待美联储救市，但经济学家指出，通胀是当前关键问题，短期内美联 | | | | | 储不会干预，美联储需等待经济数据反映关税影响后才可能采取行动 ...