四[Ta会ble富_Sto仕ckN（ameRptType] 300852） 公司覆盖 执业证书号：S0010523060001 电话：13560087214 邮箱：chenyaobo@hazq.com 投资评级：买入 | 收盘价（元） | 44.93 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 48.87/21.86 | | 总股本（百万股） | 161 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 155 | | 流通股比例（%） | 96.53 | | 总市值（亿元） | 72 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 70 | 执业证书号：S0010125060002 电话：18843526025 邮箱：yanchunxu@hazq.com 四会富仕：新兴产业多点开花，产能扩张赋能成长 风险提示 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 分析师：陈耀波 全球 PCB 市场呈现高速增长态势，公司核心下游赛道景气度持续提升。 1）汽车电子：受益于新能源汽车出货量持续提升，以及自动驾驶渗透率 持续提升，汽车电子 PCB 市场规模有望迎来高速增长期。按销售额计， 全球汽车电子 PCB 市场规模从 2020 年的 61 ...

Core Insights - The optical communication industry is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges due to explosive growth in computing power demand, with optical modules becoming a critical bottleneck in data center development [1][2] - The supply-demand dynamics of the AI optical module market are expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with current supply constraints primarily driven by four key bottlenecks [2][4] - Emerging technologies such as silicon photonics, CPO, NPO, hollow-core fibers, and micro LED communication are attempting to break existing bottlenecks, but face challenges in cost, reliability, and market acceptance [1][10][22] Supply and Demand Dynamics - AI data centers are currently experiencing a severe shortage of optical modules, a trend expected to continue through 2025, with actual shipment volumes constrained by supply-side factors [2][3] - The demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is projected to reach approximately 42 million units by 2025, although inflated market predictions exist [3][4] - Supply-side bottlenecks include shortages of optical chips, optical components, equipment, and skilled personnel, which are critical for production capacity expansion [4][5] Technology Development - Silicon photonics technology is struggling with integration challenges, leading to high costs and low yield rates, which hinder its competitiveness against traditional discrete optical modules [7][8] - CPO technology offers significant advantages in bandwidth density but faces challenges related to integration costs and maintenance difficulties [10][11] - NPO represents a compromise between traditional optical modules and CPO, but its adoption is met with skepticism from traditional optical module manufacturers [12][13] Emerging Technologies - Hollow-core fibers and micro LED communication are highlighted as promising technologies but face significant barriers to commercialization, including high manufacturing costs and integration challenges [22][23][24] - Hollow-core fibers can potentially offer faster transmission speeds and longer distances but require substantial cost reductions to be viable [22][23] - Micro LED technology, while energy-efficient, struggles with performance limitations and the need for a complete overhaul of the existing supply chain [24][25] Market Predictions - By 2026, the optical module market is expected to transition from a state of supply constraints to a more balanced supply-demand scenario, although challenges will persist [5][6] - The industry is at a critical juncture as it approaches the 3.2T era, with significant uncertainty surrounding the technological pathways and potential disruptions to existing market structures [19][20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongrun Optical, confirms that its subsidiary, Dais Optoelectronics, produces precision optical components that are fundamental for manufacturing optical modules, particularly in the laser application market [1] Group 1: Product Development and Applications - Dais Optoelectronics has developed an intelligent autofocus imaging sensor that provides clear imaging to assist in high-precision and high-speed chip positioning [1] - The products from Dais Optoelectronics are currently in the upstream of the optical communication industry chain and are essential for the production of optical modules [1] - Products such as prisms and filters for AI optical modules are still in the research and development stage [1] Group 2: Market Segments - The downstream laser application markets for Dais Optoelectronics include precision optical components for laser processing equipment, optical communication devices and equipment, laser measurement equipment, and laser medical devices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The laser application market for Dais Optoelectronics includes laser processing equipment, optical communication devices and equipment, laser measurement equipment, and laser medical devices, with Dais Optoelectronics' products positioned upstream in the optical communication industry chain, serving as the foundation for manufacturing optical modules [2] Group 1 - Dais Optoelectronics' products are currently in the research and development stage for applications in AI optical modules, such as prisms and filters [2] - The company emphasizes its role in the optical communication industry chain, highlighting the importance of its products in the manufacturing of optical modules [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haiguang Xinzhen Technology Co., Ltd., has experienced significant revenue growth, with an eightfold increase over three years, and is now preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][3]. Revenue Growth and Financial Performance - Haiguang Xinzhen's revenue increased from 102.8 million yuan in 2022 to 861.8 million yuan in 2024, representing an over eightfold growth [3]. - The company's losses narrowed significantly, with net losses of 60.2 million yuan in 2022, 108.6 million yuan in 2023, and 17.8 million yuan in 2024 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 698.1 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 164% [3]. Market Position and Product Offering - Haiguang Xinzhen ranks as the tenth largest global provider of professional optical modules by revenue in 2024 and is the fastest-growing among the top ten providers from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - The company specializes in optical interconnect products, including optical modules and active optical cables (AOC), which are widely used in AI data centers for high-speed data transmission [3]. Investment and Shareholder Structure - Prior to the IPO, the founder and key shareholders held 21.11% of the company's equity, with significant investments from Alibaba and Xiaomi [5][6]. - The company has undergone multiple funding rounds, with its valuation reaching 2.66 billion yuan after the latest round [6]. R&D and Innovation - Haiguang Xinzhen has a strong R&D team, with 101 researchers, accounting for about 30% of its total workforce [14]. - The company has filed for nearly 40 patents, including 16 invention patents, indicating a robust focus on innovation [15][18]. - R&D expenses as a percentage of total revenue have decreased from 36.2% in 2022 to 6.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [14]. Industry Trends and Market Potential - The global AI optical module market is projected to grow from 3.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 42.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 82.2% [9]. - China's optical module market is expected to maintain the highest growth rate globally, with a CAGR of 89.4% from 2020 to 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongrun Optical (688307.SH) is involved in the upstream of the optical communication industry chain, focusing on precision optical components for various laser applications, including AI optical modules currently in the R&D phase [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongrun Optical's products are essential for manufacturing optical modules, which are critical components in the laser application market [1] - The company is engaged in the development of optical components such as prisms and filters for AI optical modules [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The downstream laser application market includes sectors like laser processing equipment, optical communication devices and equipment, laser measurement devices, and laser medical devices [1]

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced quarterly adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China A50 Index, which will take effect after the market closes on September 19, 2025 [2] - The FTSE China A50 Index will include new stocks: BeiGene, NewEase, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, while excluding China National Nuclear Power, China United Network Communications, NARI Technology Development, and Wanhua Chemical Group [2][3] - The adjustments reflect market trends, with the newly included companies aligning with recent hot sectors, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI optical modules [4] Group 2 - BeiGene and WuXi AppTec are leaders in the innovative drug sector, with BeiGene's stock reaching a historical high of 346 CNY per share on September 2, 2023, and a year-to-date increase of 102.51% [4] - The AI optical module companies, NewEase and Zhongji Innolight, have seen significant stock performance, with Zhongji Innolight's stock price at 426.19 CNY per share and a year-to-date increase of 246.45% [4] - Financial results for the first half of the year show substantial growth for both AI leaders, with Zhongji Innolight reporting revenue of 14.789 billion CNY (up 36.95%) and net profit of 3.995 billion CNY (up 69.4%), while NewEase reported revenue of 10.437 billion CNY (up 282.64%) and net profit of 3.942 billion CNY (up 355.68%) [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in demand for optical isolators driven by AI optical modules, with a specific company experiencing a doubling in its optical communication business in the first half of the year [1] - The company has begun sample deliveries and small-scale shipments of its high-speed optical module WDM filters and optical components [1] - Despite short-term profit pressures, the company is improving its cash flow and is currently advancing the acquisition of important resource businesses from its major shareholder, focusing on lithium, molybdenum, and gold resources [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 415 RMB, reflecting a 15.6% potential upside from the current price of 354.92 RMB [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q2 2025 results, with revenue reaching 8.1 billion RMB, marking a historical high and a year-on-year growth of 36% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 22%. Net profit surged to 2.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 79% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 28% [1][6]. - Gross margin and net margin reached historical highs of 41.5% and 29.7%, respectively, surpassing market expectations by 5.7 percentage points and 7.2 percentage points [1][6]. - The company announced a first interim dividend of 0.4 RMB per share, enhancing shareholder returns [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, the company expects sales revenue of 38.252 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 60.3% [2][9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 43.0% for FY25E, an increase from previous estimates [6][9]. - Net profit for FY25E is forecasted at 11.691 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 126.1% [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 10.66 RMB for FY25E, with a significant increase from prior years [2][9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high-performance optical modules is driving revenue growth, with a strong emphasis on 800G and 1.6T product shipments [6]. - The company’s overseas revenue, accounting for 86% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, remains a core growth driver [6]. - The capital expenditure cycle driven by AI is expected to sustain the company's performance, with major cloud providers projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly [6]. Profitability and Margin Expansion - The gross margin for optical modules increased by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year to 40.0%, while the net margin rose by 5.8 percentage points to 29.7% [6]. - The expansion in margins is attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products and effective supply chain management [6]. - The report anticipates further margin improvement with the large-scale production of 1.6T products in the second half of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Mingpu Optoelectronics is facing significant challenges in 2024, with a revenue decline of 14.79% to 1.633 billion yuan and a net loss of 291 million yuan, marking two consecutive years of losses [2][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.633 billion yuan, down 14.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -291 million yuan [2][3] - The company's operating cash flow turned negative for the first time since its listing in 2017, with a net outflow of 45 million yuan [2] - The gross margin decreased from 18.6% in 2020 to 11.98% in 2024, indicating intensified price competition in the industry [4] Market Context - The global magnetic component market is projected to reach approximately 160 billion yuan in 2024, growing by around 6% due to strong demand from sectors like renewable energy, electric vehicles, and 5G communications [3] - The demand for magnetic components has been affected by reduced orders in the communication equipment sector, particularly due to decreased capital expenditures from major telecom operators [4] Strategic Focus - The company aims to deepen its focus on core business areas and selectively expand its upstream and downstream supply chains to create a more comprehensive industrial ecosystem for sustainable development [2] - Mingpu Optoelectronics is actively adjusting its strategic direction and technology focus, reallocating funds to enhance its market position in communication modules and devices [6] Product Development - The company has made significant strides in the optical communication sector, with its silicon photonic 800G DR8 optical module demo passing industry tests, marking a key technological advancement [5] - Despite a 34% decline in stock price, the company increased its R&D investment to 135 million yuan, representing 8.27% of revenue, although concerns remain about the slow pace of commercialization [5] Diversification Efforts - Mingpu Optoelectronics has been diversifying into consumer markets, launching products aimed at outdoor and smart energy management, but the performance in this segment has been underwhelming [7] - The company plans to optimize its marketing strategies and improve the efficiency of its advertising expenditures to enhance profitability in its consumer business [7] Future Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for the company's strategic implementation, focusing on technology applications and integrated solutions to enhance its core capabilities [8] - The company is restructuring its manufacturing bases to improve production efficiency and capacity, with plans to expand operations in various regions including Dongguan, Hubei, and Vietnam [8]