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财信证券宏观策略周报(11.10-11.14):市场风格切换明显,关注北美电力改造方向-20251109
Caixin Securities· 2025-11-09 11:10
Group 1 - The report highlights a significant market style shift, emphasizing the importance of the North American power transformation direction as a potential market focus, particularly in sectors like grid equipment, photovoltaics, energy storage, and lithium batteries [4][8][14] - The A-share market has shown resilience despite overseas market adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to fluctuate around the 4000-point mark without clear signs of a trend reversal [4][8][14] - The report notes a seasonal recovery in October's consumer prices, with the core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [4][8][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that October exports faced disturbances due to base and calendar effects, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% in export amounts, contrasting with an 8.3% increase in the previous month [10][11] - It suggests that institutional low allocation directions may see a rebound opportunity, particularly with the implementation of a performance comparison benchmark for public funds, which is expected to reduce style drift and speculative behavior [11][12] - The report emphasizes the ongoing impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data releases, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [12][14]
股指期货将震荡整理,白银期货再创上市以来新高,白银、工业硅期货将震荡偏强,黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱将偏强震荡,原油期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on September 22, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or volatile state, and provides corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4][6][7]. - The report also analyzes the market performance of various futures on September 19, 2025, including the opening, closing, high, and low prices, as well as the changes in moving - average support and resistance levels [17][18][19][41][45][47][54][58][62][66][70][73][79][80][85][88][92][98][101][107][110][115][119][121][123][124][126][129]. - It presents macro - information such as international relations, government policies, and central bank decisions, which have an impact on the futures market [8][9][10][13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate on September 22, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4495 and 4545 points, and support at 4444 and 4413 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 107.57 and 107.40 yuan; the thirty - year TL2512 is likely to have a wide - range weak oscillation and test support at 114.3 and 113.5 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance at 840.0 and 845.9 yuan/gram; silver AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, attack resistance at 10300 and 10400 yuan/kg, and set a new record high [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper CU2511 is likely to oscillate strongly; aluminum AL2511 is likely to oscillate weakly; zinc ZN2511 is likely to oscillate weakly; tin SN2510 is likely to oscillate strongly; industrial silicon SI2511 is likely to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil SC2511 is likely to oscillate weakly and test support at 480 and 476 yuan/barrel; fuel oil FU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Bean meal M2601 is likely to oscillate strongly; soybean oil Y2601 is likely to oscillate weakly; palm oil P2601 is likely to oscillate weakly; natural rubber RU2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate [7]. 3.2 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - **International Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, discussing Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [8]. - **Domestic Policies**: The State Council held meetings to discuss policies such as government procurement and the revision of the Banking Supervision Law; multiple departments issued policies to support the construction of convenient living circles [8][10]. - **Central Bank Decisions**: The central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe made decisions on interest rates, and the Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations [13][14][41]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On September 19, international precious - metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.12% to $3719.4/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.96% to $43.365/ounce [14]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices weakened on September 19. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.42% to $62.36/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.3% to $66.05/barrel [15]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals fell on September 19, with LME tin rising 1.51% to $34220/ton and LME copper rising 0.57% to $9996.5/ton [15].