Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December meeting, with a high probability of 88.6% according to CME data, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment due to declining inflation and signs of cooling employment [1]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - The PCE price index for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is better than the previous value of 2.7% [3]. - The core PCE price index also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous year's 2.9%, indicating a stable inflation environment that supports the case for monetary policy easing [3]. - Overall, consumer spending has stagnated, reflecting financial strain among Americans prior to the government shutdown, which further supports the argument for a more lenient monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The latest ADP employment data indicates an average weekly addition of 4,750 jobs in private enterprises, showing improvement from previous negative growth, but highlights significant structural disparities, particularly affecting small businesses [4]. - Small businesses experienced a net job loss of 120,000 in November, while larger firms added approximately 90,000 jobs, indicating a troubling trend for the overall employment landscape [4]. - The non-farm payroll data for September showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, suggesting underlying weaknesses in the labor market [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs has indicated that a December rate cut is "basically a done deal," with market pricing reflecting a probability exceeding 85%, driven by labor market slowdowns and risk management needs [6]. - The report emphasizes that despite strong non-farm job additions, rising unemployment and increased layoffs signal a weakening labor structure, supporting the case for a "preventive rate cut" to mitigate economic slowdown risks [6]. - Looking ahead, fiscal policies, such as infrastructure and industrial stimulus measures, are expected to drive economic growth, with projections of U.S. economic growth remaining in the 2%–2.5% range [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift towards net exports [3]. - Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly purchases on dips. Domestic inventories have decreased slightly, LME zinc inventory reduction has slowed, and the spot premium is at a high level [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions and falling prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA60 support level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,989.5 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc positions are 210,646 lots, down 7,082 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc are 5,696 lots, down 2,518 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, down 76,861 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory is 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons [3]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The ZN main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 104.97 dollars/ton, down 70.88 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,470 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, up 1,100 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.35%, up 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, with both sides expressing willingness to strengthen cooperation and contribute to world economic growth [3]. - Trump's chief economic advisor said AI may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be data - driven [3]. - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, while Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes cautious and slow policy implementation [3].