美联储将于本周四凌晨公布12月议息会议结果，市场普遍预计本次将迎来25个基点的降息。 根据 CME"美联储观察"数据，降息概率高达88.6%，几乎已被市场视为"板上钉钉"。随着通胀回落、就业降温 信号增强，政策环境正走向宽松。 通胀持续降温 支持政策宽松 受此前美国政府关门影响，9月整体个人消费支出PCE通胀数据延迟一个多月才发布。该数据显示，美国9 月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，好于前值的2.7%。9月核心PCE物价 指数环比上涨0.2%，与预期和前值持平；同比上涨2.8%，低于前值的2.9%。数据显示，9月美国个人收 入超预期，但支出低于预期。美国消费者支出停滞不前，美国人在该国政府关门之前就已感到财务吃紧。 总体来看，通胀继续维持在2.8%的温和区间，距离美联储长期目标2%不远，为货币政策宽松铺平道路。 核心PCE被美联储视为衡量长期通胀趋势的关键指标，此次低于预期的数据为降息进一步提供空间。 就业市场出现疲态 结构性分化加深 劳动力市场方面，最新ADP就业数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，美国私人企业平均每周新增就业 4,750人，较此前连续四周负增长有所改善 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift towards net exports [3]. - Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly purchases on dips. Domestic inventories have decreased slightly, LME zinc inventory reduction has slowed, and the spot premium is at a high level [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions and falling prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA60 support level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,989.5 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc positions are 210,646 lots, down 7,082 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc are 5,696 lots, down 2,518 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, down 76,861 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory is 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons [3]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The ZN main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 104.97 dollars/ton, down 70.88 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,470 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, up 1,100 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.35%, up 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, with both sides expressing willingness to strengthen cooperation and contribute to world economic growth [3]. - Trump's chief economic advisor said AI may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be data - driven [3]. - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, while Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes cautious and slow policy implementation [3].