1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as the copper fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1]. - For aluminum, the LME 0 - 3M spread has returned to negative values, but the overseas active restocking supports the aluminum price. The domestic demand has short - term support [2]. - Regarding zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its price increase in the long - run. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [9]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is a continued game between short - term policies and fundamentals [14]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and its price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [18]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - term short - selling is recommended [20]. - Tin can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first quarter, but there may be significant downward fluctuations in the second half of the year if the macro situation turns [23]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [26]. - For lithium carbonate, a short - term supply - demand balance in January is expected, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur later [28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The copper price tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose significantly on Friday night [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, but global consumption is good. In China, the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, and the post - festival inventory reduction may also be rapid [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum ingot price and inventory have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and downstream processing fees of aluminum ingots are still at a low level, and the apparent consumption of aluminum ingots and aluminum products has rebounded [1][2]. - **Demand**: The automobile consumption in December was below expectations and is expected to decline further. However, the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected, providing short - term support for domestic demand [2]. Zinc - **Supply**: The domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward, and the domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The production in January is expected to increase by 15,000 tons month - on - month [9]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand in Europe is average. The import window is currently closed [9]. Nickel - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production has slightly declined month - on - month, and the overall demand is weak. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME inventory has remained stable [13][14]. - **Policy Impact**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining and the proposed reduction of nickel ore quotas have led to a continued game between policies and fundamentals [14]. Stainless Steel - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mills maintain a high production level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has a slight reduction from a high level [18]. - **Price Driver**: The price is mainly driven by the nickel price in the short - term, and the news of Indonesian quotas is the main factor affecting the price recently [18]. Lead - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is driven by profits, and the recycled lead has resumed production. The demand for batteries is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated [19][20]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 next week, and short - term short - selling is recommended [20]. Tin - **Supply**: There are differences in the expectation of the resumption of production in Wa State in the first quarter, and Indonesia has determined its 2026 quota. The production in the Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda is currently not affected by the war [23]. - **Demand**: The downstream replenishment willingness varies, and the electronic consumption demand is resilient. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the overseas LME inventory has oscillated upwards [23]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region is at a low level, and the production in Xinjiang is stable. The overall monthly supply is shrinking, and it is expected to be less than 400,000 tons in January [26]. - **Price Trend**: The price is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [26]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream is in the maintenance cycle, and the downstream production reduction is less than expected. The supply and demand are close to balance in January, and the actual inventory reduction is greatly affected by the maintenance intensity [28]. - **Inventory and Price**: The inventory of upstream and downstream is low, and the intermediate link accounts for a high proportion. The price is greatly affected by futures market expectations and sentiment [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, expecting supply constraints and demand growth. For aluminum, overseas active restocking supports prices. Zinc has potential for a catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a policy - fundamentals game. Stainless steel follows nickel prices. Lead is expected to oscillate in a certain range, and short - term short - selling is recommended at high prices. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate may see a spot - futures resonance market [1][2][7] Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose sharply on Friday night. The US's ability to siphon inventory is waning, but global consumption is strong, and copper has strong demand support. In China, pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, but post - festival destocking may also be rapid [1] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import profit was - 91.50, and the LME inventory increased by 3,450 [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum ingot prices increased, and the LME 0 - 3M spread returned to negative. Aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are low, but apparent demand has rebounded. Auto consumption in December was below expectations, but photovoltaic installation increased, and overseas restocking supports prices [2] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 370, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices increased. Supply - side TC is declining, and production is expected to increase in January. Demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the export window was open in December. The market is optimistic about zinc's catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [5][7] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai zinc ingot prices increased by 310, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [5][6] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices increased. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic inventory increased slightly. There is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals due to Indonesian policies [11][12] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 2,060.88, and the LME inventory decreased by 768 [11] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are stable. Inventory decreased slightly, and prices mainly follow nickel prices [13][14] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, 304 cold - rolled coil prices decreased by 100 [13][14] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600. Supply is increasing due to high profits, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [15][18] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,250 [15][18] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated upward. Supply recovery in the first quarter is uncertain, and demand has different trends in different sectors. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward pressure in the second half of 2026 [21] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 17,252.19, and the LME inventory increased by 40 [21] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. Prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [23] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 96 [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate prices increased. The market was driven by production - halt expectations, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. A spot - futures resonance market may occur [25] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 6,500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 730 [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff disturbances and high US inventories. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival destocking may also be rapid. In the medium - term, the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices as the supply is limited and demand has an increment [1] - For aluminum, the basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels, with continuous inventory accumulation and weak consumption demand. Although automobile consumption is expected to decline, photovoltaic installation and export expectations provide short - term domestic support. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and potential active restocking may support aluminum prices [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but long - term capital investment is limited and there is a supply disturbance of about 100,000 tons from Iranian zinc mines. The price is expected to be difficult to fall deeply under the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities in month - spreads [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and slow domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventory with a slight destocking. The price is mainly driven by nickel - related news in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price fluctuates at a high level this week. The supply is expected to increase in January, while the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has started to accumulate, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, with a short - term strategy of short - selling on rallies [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly this week, affected by capital sentiment. There are supply disturbances in major countries, and the smelters' willingness to deliver to warehouses is strong at high prices. It is suggested to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is in a balanced and relatively loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [11] - For lithium carbonate, the price fluctuates on the futures market. The short - term supply - demand is approaching equilibrium with an expected inventory accumulation of about 1,400 tons per month in January. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper had a change of 15, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 581, and the LME inventory increased by 3,850 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The price pulled back in the second half of the week due to US tariff disturbances and high US inventories. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster than expected, but the post - festival destocking may also be rapid. In the medium - term, the supply is limited and demand has an increment, so the report maintains a bullish view on copper prices [1] Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 160, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,000 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The basis of aluminum ingots and downstream processing fees are still at low levels, with continuous inventory accumulation and weak consumption demand. Although automobile consumption is expected to decline, photovoltaic installation and export expectations provide short - term domestic support. Overseas, the tight spot liquidity and potential active restocking may support aluminum prices [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai zinc decreased by 380, the LME inventory decreased by 1,475 [2] - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the domestic and imported TC is accelerating to decline, and the domestic zinc concentrate is tightening in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The market is optimistic about the zinc allocation elasticity, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore increased by 1, and the LME inventory decreased by 24 [3] - **Market Analysis**: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and slow domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50 [3] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals remain weak, with high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventory with a slight destocking. The price is mainly driven by nickel - related news in the short - term [3] Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot import gain increased by 3.58, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,850 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The price fluctuates at a high level this week. The supply is expected to increase in January, while the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory has started to accumulate, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 next week, with a short - term strategy of short - selling on rallies [5] Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the spot import gain decreased by 34,413.19, and the LME inventory increased by 505 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The price fluctuates greatly this week, affected by capital sentiment. There are supply disturbances in major countries, and the smelters' willingness to deliver to warehouses is strong at high prices. It is suggested to wait and see or focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 240, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand is in a balanced and relatively loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost. In the long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From January 13 to 19, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 7,000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The price fluctuates on the futures market. The short - term supply - demand is approaching equilibrium with an expected inventory accumulation of about 1,400 tons per month in January. The absolute price is greatly affected by the futures market, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]