AI溢出效应

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上海证券2025年10月基金投资策略:聚焦核心竞争力,不惧市场估值“验证”
Shanghai Securities· 2025-09-29 11:13
Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]