智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，1H25石化化工上市公司营收1.8万亿元，同比下降0.6%；毛利 2,874亿元，同比增长0.4%；归母净利润876亿元，同比下降1.9%。1H25资本开支同比下降15.1%，2Q25 同/环比下降12.2%/8.3%。由于化工中游制造业景气已下行时间较长，行业竞争加剧及盈利的下降导致 企业对资本开支逐步谨慎。随着行业资本开支持续下降以及"反内卷"政策倡导，看好估值相对较低且 2026年盈利增长确定性强的化工龙头公司，以及需求有望快速增长的AI相关材料公司投资机会。 中金主要观点如下： 1H25业绩符合预期 1H25石化化工上市公司营收1.8万亿元，同比下降0.6%；毛利2,874亿元，同比增长0.4%；归母净利润 876亿元，同比下降1.9%。1H25全球化工市场需求仍然较弱，同时2Q贸易关税对下游采购需求产生扰 动，叠加1H25布伦特原油和煤炭价格同比下降15.1%/22.4%，导致化工产品价格指数同比下降9.7%。 1H25石化化工上市公司毛利率同比提升0.15ppt至16%，净利率同比下降0.07ppt至4.9%。子行业层面， 1H25氟化工、表面活性剂、玻纤、半导 ...

锂电起势，再论基本面变化和新技术周期 20250831 摘要 三季度锂电池行业排产数据超出预期，龙头电池厂及储能电池厂环比增 长显著，消除了市场对行业景气度的担忧。市场对 2026 年行业需求预 期过于保守，龙头企业预计增长至少 20%以上，部分材料企业订单指引 甚至达到 30%左右。 国内新能源汽车平均带电量持续提升，高端 EV 车型已达 80-100 度电， 未来仍有提升空间。重卡渗透率接近 20%，预计明年大幅增长。海外储 能市场需求强劲，排产和签单情况显示有望实现大几十的增速。 锂电中游产品结构升级导致铁锂和负极结构性紧缺延续，六氟磷酸锂实 际产能紧张。若明年需求进一步增长，可能出现供应缺口并导致价格上 涨。临沧铁底开始出现反内卷声音，行业有望健康发展。 锂电板块主链胜率较高，基于未来盈利预测，给予 17-20 倍 PE 水平， 赔率空间可达 20%以上，目前处于良好投资状态。若需求增长超预期或 估值体系提升，赔率将更大。 固态电池和 AI 相关新材料是锂电行业的新方向，固态电池板块经历盘整 后预计 9 月重启，宁德时代等企业积极推进产业化落地。AI 相关材料方 面，铜箔企业客户验证提速，预计四季度将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical industry is currently experiencing low price indices, profit margins, and valuations, but there are expectations for positive changes in supply due to declining capital expenditures, accelerated exit of outdated overseas capacities, and government policies emphasizing "anti-involution" [1][3][33]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Financial Metrics - The chemical industry has been in a downturn for approximately three years, with profit margins at low levels. From early 2025 to now, the chemical product price index has decreased by 6.4%, currently at the 15.6% percentile since 2012 [3][9]. - The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products from January to May 2025 is 4.10%, the lowest since 2017. In Q1 2025, the gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies were 15.83% and 5.07%, respectively, also at low levels [3][9]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector continue to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 18.5% in Q1 2025 [3][14]. Group 2: Global Demand and Trade Impacts - Global demand for bulk chemical products remains weak, with the real estate sector's adjustment gradually narrowing its economic drag, but still affecting demand growth for chemicals related to real estate and its downstream sectors [4][23]. - The U.S. has raised import tariffs on most chemical products by 30%, which has suppressed some direct exports of chemicals to the U.S. If these tariffs remain, they may disrupt future chemical exports from China [4][28]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics and Capacity Exits - The exit of outdated overseas chemical capacities is accelerating, with a total of 11 million tons of capacity expected to exit in Europe from 2023 to October 2024. This includes significant closures announced by companies like Westlake Chemical and Total [3][20]. - The exit of overseas chemical capacities is expected to help alleviate global supply-demand imbalances in related chemical products [3][20]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The chemical industry is at a low point in terms of profitability and valuation, with the ROE for the basic chemical sector at its lowest since 2017. As of July 11, 2023, the price-to-book ratio for the basic chemical sector is 2.10x, at the 21% percentile since 2012 [33]. - The company sees potential in low-valuation chemical leaders with strong profit growth certainty for 2026, as well as investment opportunities in bottomed-out supply-concentrated products [37][38].