Core Insights - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that HBM prices may drop by 10% by 2026 due to oversupply in the market [1][3] - The pricing power in the HBM market is shifting from manufacturers to customers, particularly represented by Nvidia, indicating a loss of SK Hynix's previous dominance in securing 80%-90% of Nvidia's orders [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary reason for the anticipated price drop is "oversupply," as major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron accelerate production, leading to a significant increase in HBM supply that will exceed demand [3][4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its total addressable market (TAM) for HBM in 2026 down by 13%, from $51 billion to $45 billion, and reduced growth expectations from 45% to 25% [3] - By the end of 2025, SK Hynix plans to increase its monthly production capacity from 65,000 wafers to 150,000 wafers, while Samsung's capacity is expected to reach 150,000 wafers, and Micron aims for 90,000 wafers [5] Market Competition and Product Trends - SK Hynix currently holds about 50% of the HBM market share, significantly higher than Samsung's 30% and Micron's 20% [8] - The demand for HBM products is expected to be driven by the ASIC market, particularly from companies like Amazon, Meta, and Google, which are rapidly increasing their demand for custom semiconductors [6][7] - The introduction of HBM4 in 2026 is anticipated to be a significant focus, with SK Hynix and Samsung both ramping up their production efforts [15][16] Future Outlook - UBS suggests that despite short-term noise in the memory market, SK Hynix is likely to maintain its leadership position in the HBM sector, especially with the growing demand from AI platforms [14] - The competitive landscape for HBM4 will be crucial, as Samsung aims to regain market share after setbacks in previous product launches [15][17] - The technological roadmap for HBM from 2025 to 2040 indicates a shift towards higher performance and efficiency, with HBM4 expected to play a pivotal role in the AI chip storage market [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. export restrictions on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) on the domestic semiconductor industry in China, highlighting the shift towards alternative high-bandwidth storage solutions like 3D DRAM as a response to these challenges [1][21]. Group 1: Impact of HBM Restrictions - The U.S. Department of Commerce imposed stricter export controls on HBM and related semiconductor manufacturing equipment, affecting 140 Chinese entities [1]. - The restrictions particularly target HBM products with a memory bandwidth density exceeding 2GB/s/mm², disrupting the supply chain for advanced storage in China [1]. - Concerns arose that these limitations would significantly pressure the domestic semiconductor industry, especially the AI sector reliant on HBM [1]. Group 2: Emergence of 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM has gained attention among domestic storage manufacturers as a potential alternative to HBM, leveraging advancements in scaling technology [2][3]. - Unlike HBM, which is a stacked-die memory, 3D DRAM aims to increase storage density and reduce production costs by evolving from 2D to 3D structures [4][10]. - The transition to 3D DRAM involves vertical stacking of memory cells, which can enhance performance and efficiency while addressing the limitations of traditional DRAM structures [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Developments and Competition - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are actively developing 3D DRAM technologies, with Samsung planning to unveil its initial version this year and achieve mass production by 2030 [11][13]. - SK Hynix has demonstrated a 5-layer stacked 3D DRAM prototype with a yield rate of 56.1%, indicating progress in this competitive landscape [13]. - Micron has been researching 3D DRAM since 2019 and holds a significant number of patents in this area, positioning itself as a key player in the market [16]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - Innovations such as the use of IGZO materials in 3D DRAM are being explored to address bandwidth and latency challenges, enhancing the performance of DRAM chips [16]. - Neo Semiconductor has introduced a technology called 3D X-DRAM, which aims to overcome capacity limitations and achieve high throughput for AI processing [17]. - Domestic companies like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies are also making strides in 3D DRAM development, indicating a growing interest in this technology within China [19][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for 3D DRAM is expected to rise rapidly in China as traditional HBM faces restrictions, with 3D DRAM seen as a key direction for overcoming bandwidth bottlenecks [21]. - The global supply chain dynamics and tariff policies are creating opportunities for domestic DRAM manufacturers to innovate and compete effectively in the market [21].