投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内资金了结意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 2/3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅回调，全天弱势。沪深京三市全天成交额 19836 亿元，较上日放量 26 ...

Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - The current market enthusiasm for AI is perceived as excessively high, with a warning that the S&P 500's rise is overly concentrated in seven major tech stocks, which now account for one-third of its market value, compared to just 6% for the internet sector before the 2000 bubble burst [3][4] - Historical asset bubbles share common traits such as steep valuation increases, high concentration, and capital inflows driven by irrational expectations, indicating a potential risk in the current market [3][4] - The focus of global competition is shifting from "General Artificial Intelligence (AGI)" to "application layer innovation," with the U.S. leading in AGI research while China excels in practical applications [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Dollar Dynamics - The current weakness of the U.S. dollar is attributed to structural factors rather than a fundamental shift in its reserve currency status, with technical corrections occurring due to fiscal deficits and declining savings rates [5] - The lack of transparency in key economic statistics due to government shutdowns increases the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy decisions, raising the risk of policy misjudgments [5] - Confidence in China's medium to long-term growth prospects remains strong, with expectations of achieving around 5% growth this year [5]