证券研究报告：传媒 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-22 股票投资评级 增持|维持 个股表现 -34% -27% -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 昆仑万维 传媒 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 39.99 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.55 / 12.54 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）502 / 502 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 49.98 / 27.23 | | 资产负债率(%) | 17.9% | | 市盈率 | -30.76 | | 第一大股东 | 北京盈瑞世纪软件研发 | | 中心(有限合伙) | | 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 昆仑万维(300418) 前瞻布局世界模型，持续关注 AI 算力芯片进展 ⚫ 事件回顾 12 月 11 日，AI 视频生成独角兽 Runw ...

摘要 2026 年全球手机市场预计小幅下滑，中低端安卓手机承压，但 AI 手机 新品值得期待；PC 市场受存储涨价影响，AI PC 升级周期或启动，需关 注其对市场的影响。 服务器需求持续旺盛，预计 2025 年全年资本开支增长 60%-70%，企 业收入同比双位数增长，此趋势预计持续。AI 相关功率半导体市场潜力 巨大，2030 年市场规模预计达 80-120 亿欧元。 DRAM 和 NAND 资本开支在 2026 年预计分别增长 14%和 5%，但受 洁净室空间限制，出货量增长有限。国内存储原厂持续扩产，市占率有 望提升，将受益于存储原厂扩展周期和算力需求增加。 全球晶圆代工行业资本开支预计同比增长 13%，台积电先进制程产能贡 献较大，中芯国际和华虹也将释放新增产能。台积电预计 2026 年底 COBOS 月产量达 12.7 万片，英伟达预定一半以上产能。 四季度 DRAM 和 NAND 现货价格持续上涨，DSI 指数创历史新高，对 手机、PC 等终端产品成本构成挑战，可能导致规格配置缩减或暂缓升级。 存储价格上涨将增加手机与 PC 成本压力。 Q&A 存储和逻辑产能持续扩张，把握设备及算力芯片自主可控 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The WAIC 2025 showcased advancements in AI models, computing chips, and server technologies, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic AI industry [2][5]. - Domestic AI models and intelligent agents are rapidly evolving, with significant improvements in performance and cost efficiency [10][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment opportunities in the domestic AI supply chain, despite external challenges [2][8]. Summary by Sections WAIC 2025 Highlights - WAIC 2025 focused on AI models, computing chips, and servers, featuring top tech companies and innovations [5][6]. - Key products included the Step-3 model by Jieyue Star, SenseNova V6.5 by SenseTime, and Tencent's Hunyuan 3D World Model, showcasing advancements in multi-modal capabilities [10][19][25]. Domestic AI Model Developments - Jieyue Star's Step-3 model achieved state-of-the-art results in various benchmarks, with a total parameter count of 321 billion and activation parameters of 38 billion [11][12]. - SenseTime's SenseNova V6.5 model demonstrated a threefold improvement in cost-performance ratio compared to its predecessor [21][23]. - Tencent's Hunyuan 3D World Model 1.0 gained over 2.3 million downloads, highlighting its popularity and effectiveness in generating editable virtual worlds [25][28]. GPU Innovations - Muxi's flagship GPU, Xiyun C600, represents a significant breakthrough in domestic high-performance GPUs, featuring a complete supply chain and advanced capabilities [7][42]. - Huawei's Cloud Matrix 384, equipped with Ascend 910C chips, offers 300 PFLOPs of computing power, suitable for large model inference and training [46][50]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the domestic AI industry is progressing in multiple areas, including model capabilities and hardware specifications, making it a worthwhile investment focus [2][8].