V i e w p o i n t | 14 Aug 2025 20:17:45 ET │ 26 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Stay long local EM and EM carry — We continue to stay long EM local, FX hedged, into the Sep FOMC. Growth may still come off in the RoW, when there is pay back for tariff front-running. Separately, we are long EM carry. Of our two warning signals, positioning is currently a headwind, although it only becomes a problem if volatility spikes, too. Unwinding our SNB payer — We took profits on one of our very few ...

28 May 2025 | 7:13PM HKT VNET Group (VNET): First Take: 1Q25 results beat; Accelerated move-in offset softer wholesale MSR; Buy VNET Group reported above-expected 1Q25 results with revenue +18% yoy (1-2% above GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data) and adj. EBITDA +26% yoy (8-12% above GSe/consensus). Revenue from the three business segments came in line or slightly above GSe, with 1) wholesale IDC revenue +86% yoy/+1% qoq and accounting for 30% of total revenue, with stronger move-ins at the new campuses delive ...

Investment Rating - The report raises the S&P 500 return and earnings forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for the index with new 3- and 12-month return forecasts of +1% and +11% respectively [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that lower tariff rates, improved economic growth, and reduced recession risks have led to an upward revision of S&P 500 earnings and return forecasts [2][4] - The revised S&P 500 EPS forecasts are $262 in 2025 and $280 in 2026, reflecting a growth of +7% year-over-year for both years [2][4] - The current P/E ratio of 21x is in the 90th percentile since 1990, with a forecasted 12-month P/E valuation of 20.4x, indicating reduced uncertainty and faster earnings growth [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on stocks with high pricing power to maintain margins amid elevated input costs [2][22] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report revises the S&P 500 EPS growth estimates to +7% for both 2025 and 2026, up from previous estimates of +3% and +6% respectively, due to a better-than-expected economic outlook [4][5] Valuation - The current P/E of 21x is noted to be 5% below the peak of 22x earlier this year, with an updated fair value estimate reflecting lower inflation and renewed confidence in fundamentals [2][8] Positioning - The report indicates that light equity investor positioning suggests potential for continued near-term market upside, with the US Equity Sentiment Indicator registering -1.5 standard deviations [2][14] Pricing Power - The report continues to recommend stocks with high pricing power, as they are expected to outperform in environments of weakening profit margins due to increased tariff rates [22][27] Big Tech and AI Stocks - The report anticipates that AI stocks will regain momentum as tariff-related volatility diminishes, with strong earnings growth profiles expected from AI-exposed equities [3][27]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral stance on equities, shifting from an underweight position previously [10]. Core Insights - A better-than-expected outcome from US/China trade talks has led to a reduction in tariff tensions, prompting multiple global forecast revisions [2][6]. - Regional equity market earnings have been raised due to a more favorable growth outlook, with expected earnings growth for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index at 9% for both 2025 and 2026 [14][18]. - The report anticipates moderately higher returns driven by improved earnings and a favorable macro backdrop, with a 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific index set at 660, implying an 8% total return [18][28]. Summary by Sections US/China Trade Talks - The US and China announced a 90-day pause in tariffs, reducing the US effective tariff rate on Chinese exports to 39% from 107%, and the China effective tariff rate on US exports to around 30% from 144% [3][6]. - Following the announcement, the regional index gained 3.2% in three trading days, with significant gains in Taiwan, China Offshore, and India markets [3][4]. Global Forecast Revisions - The reduction in tariffs has led to an increase in the US real GDP growth forecast for 4Q from 0.5% to 1.0% and a decrease in the probability of recession from 45% to 35% [6][11]. - In China, GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively, with a corresponding increase in MSCI China index earnings growth forecasts [7][11]. Regional Earnings Growth - Earnings growth for the MSCI Asia Pacific index has been revised up by 2 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to better macro growth expectations in China and US-exposed markets [14][18]. - Individual market revisions include a cumulative +5pp for China, +4pp for Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea, and +3pp for Japan and China A [14][15]. Return Expectations - The report expects 3-month and 12-month returns for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index of 0% and 8% in USD price terms, driven by better earnings growth and a higher target P/E multiple of 13.4x [18][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of alpha opportunities over beta, given that markets have already priced in much of the tariff relief [28][29]. Market Allocation and Themes - The report favors China and Japan, with a domestic sector tilt, and highlights themes such as resilience in a challenging macro context, AI beneficiaries, and shareholder yield [29][30]. - The report also notes the impact of USD depreciation on market differentiation, identifying winners and losers [32][29].

12 May 2025 | 8:54PM EDT US Equity Views Lower tariffs lead to higher S&P 500 earnings and returns David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik. ...