U.S. stock indexes, where seven tech groups contributed half of all market earnings this year, made double-digit gains in 2025 to hit record highs as exuberance about AI and monetary easing also propelled European and Asian equities to record peaks.Expectations for further rate cuts have buoyed bonds too, handing U.S. Treasury investors the best annual performance for five years as inflation ‌retreated, although it remains above ‌the Federal Reserve's average 2% target.For 2026, waves of government stimulu ...

Core Viewpoint - Artisan Value Fund's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates that the equity market rally continued, driven by strong corporate earnings, increased AI investment, and favorable US fiscal policies, despite challenges such as tariffs [1]. Fund Performance - The Artisan Value Fund's Investor Class ARTLX, Advisor Class APDLX, and Institutional Class APHLX returned 0.83%, 0.91%, and 0.90% respectively in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 1000 Value Index, which returned 5.33% [1]. Stock Highlights - Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) was highlighted in the fund's investor letter, showing a one-month return of 3.14% and a 52-week gain of 34.20%, with a closing stock price of $161.05 and a market capitalization of $250.7 billion as of December 26, 2025 [2]. Sector Performance - The fund noted that stock selection was broadly negative across sectors in Q3, particularly in the consumer staples sector, where Philip Morris International Inc. was identified as a laggard contributing to underperformance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Artisan Value Fund's third-quarter 2025 performance was negatively impacted by stock selection, particularly in the consumer staples sector, despite a broader equity market rally driven by strong corporate earnings and economic support measures [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The Artisan Value Fund's Investor Class ARTLX, Advisor Class APDLX, and Institutional Class APHLX returned 0.83%, 0.91%, and 0.90% respectively in Q3 2025 [1]. - The Russell 1000 Value Index had a return of 5.33% during the same period, indicating underperformance by the Artisan Value Fund [1]. Group 2: Stock Highlights - Diageo plc (NYSE:DEO) was highlighted in the fund's investor letter, with a one-month return of -6.53% and a 52-week loss of 31.87% [2]. - As of December 26, 2025, Diageo plc's stock closed at $86.32 per share, with a market capitalization of $47.74 billion [2]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The consumer staples sector was identified as the biggest source of underperformance for the Artisan Value Fund, with notable laggards including Diageo plc, Kerry Group, and Philip Morris International [3].

Artisan Partners, an investment management company, released its “Artisan Value Fund” third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The equity market rally persisted in the third quarter as investors ignored tariffs, buoyed by strong corporate earnings, rising AI investment, and prospects of economic support from US fiscal policy and lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, the fund’s Investor Class ARTLX, Advisor Class APDLX, and Institutional Class APHLX returned 0.8 ...

The economy expanded by an impressive 4.3% in the third quarter. The data support Wall Street's "run-it-hot" thesis heading into 2026. The scenario involves robust economic growth and above-target inflation. Investors just got a blockbuster GDP print for the third quarter. The US economy grew 4.3%, much more than expected, while consumer spending increased 3.5%. Stocks dipped on the news, as odds of a rate cut for both the January and March Fed meetings dwindled. Importantly, though, the report ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Latin American (LatAm) market, particularly regarding investment opportunities and risks in the region's economies and industries for 2026 [4][9][14]. Core Insights - **Investment Shift**: There is a significant potential for growth in LatAm markets after years of underperformance. Countries that transition from consumption and leverage to investment are expected to see the highest growth. Mexico is noted for its early advantage in nearshoring, while Brazil presents the best risk-reward scenario [4][9]. - **Policy Changes**: A shift away from populism towards fiscal responsibility is observed across several LatAm countries, which could lead to a new earnings cycle and improve the risk-reward balance for equity investors [13][14][17]. - **Equity Performance**: Brazilian equities have risen approximately 53% year-to-date and could increase another 20% while still being at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10x. A policy shift could further reduce the cost of capital by 2-3 turns [9][20]. - **Investment Cycle**: The key to revitalizing LatAm economies is reigniting an investment cycle, which is essential for developing a new investment narrative. The current consumer cycle is seen as nearing its end, necessitating a focus on investment-led growth [18][20]. Country-Specific Insights - **Brazil**: Currently experiencing fiscal consolidation and policy confidence, with a focus on investment growth. The country is running out of fiscal road, and the investment narrative is crucial for future growth [18][20]. - **Mexico**: The USMCA negotiations are critical for the nearshoring narrative. The market has rallied significantly, but earnings growth remains muted, and the investment narrative is closely tied to USMCA developments [25][28]. - **Argentina**: Faces significant challenges with a weaker capital market but has potential for growth if an investment cycle can be established [4][9]. Risks and Challenges - **Consumer Cycle Limitations**: The consensus view suggests that the consumer cycle may be reaching its limits, and without meaningful fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, equities may continue to underperform [16][20]. - **USMCA Uncertainty**: The negotiations surrounding the USMCA are complex, and there is a material probability of a bear case scenario that could delay the nearshoring narrative and investment growth in Mexico [25][28][37]. - **Fintech Disruption**: In the banking sector, fintech companies are challenging traditional banks in Mexico, potentially leading to a significant reduction in profitability for incumbents if they are forced to raise deposit yields [87][97]. Investment Recommendations - **Equity Strategy**: The recommendation is to remain overweight in Brazil and Argentina, equal-weight in Mexico, and focus on sectors such as financial services, digitalization, energy, and nearshoring [23][70]. - **Cautious Approach**: A cautious stance is advised for agribusiness in Brazil due to current pressures on commodity prices and farmer margins, with a preference for selective exposure [74][80]. Conclusion - The LatAm market is at a pivotal point with potential for significant growth driven by policy shifts and investment cycles. However, challenges remain, particularly in the context of USMCA negotiations and the rise of fintech in the banking sector. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors poised for growth while remaining cautious of the broader economic landscape [4][9][20][87].

Economic Outlook - Vanguard's economic outlook for 2026 indicates a mixed picture for inflation, with some components decreasing while others, particularly food prices and tariffs, exert upward pressure [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a modest easing bias, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [3] Investment and Job Market - The potential for AI-related investments in the latter half of the year could provide upside risk to the US economy, despite current headwinds [4][5] - The labor market is currently in a holding pattern, influenced by factors such as an increase in retirements and slowed immigration, which has reduced the supply of new entrants [6][8] Inflation Dynamics - Tariffs are a significant factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations that inflation could rise above 2% due to tariff-related uncertainties [10][11] - The focus for 2026 is anticipated to shift more towards growth rather than inflation, suggesting a potential for non-inflationary growth similar to the late 1990s [11][12] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's approach should consider the potential for higher productivity and growth without necessarily increasing rates, as seen in historical contexts [12][13] - A scenario is proposed where higher growth could coexist with a 4% yield on 10-year Treasuries, indicating that the Fed needs to focus on capacity and productivity for future policy decisions [13][14]

Amazon's investment would be tied to an agreement for OpenAI to use the e-commerce company's in-house Trainium chips, according to a report. ...

I sat down with Jeff Park (@dgt10011) to discuss the Fed’s year-end shift toward rate cuts and easier liquidity, what it means for markets, and why bitcoin sentiment feels so negative despite strong performance.Jeff also digs into how AI investment is reshaping the macro landscape, what institutional players like BlackRock and Stripe signal for crypto, and why ProCap's mission centers on bitcoin and the coming age of abundance.YouTube: https://t.co/gAO7ETGKFHSpotify: https://t.co/DQqndf8oOtApple: https://t. ...

Market Overview - US stock futures showed positive movement with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slightly above flatline, indicating cautious optimism ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1][19] - Major US benchmarks experienced consecutive weekly gains, with S&P 500 gaining 0.3%, Dow rising 0.5%, and Nasdaq climbing 0.9%, supported by a softer September PCE inflation reading [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is set to begin its final FOMC meeting of the year, with expectations growing for a rate cut for the first time since the inflation cycle began [3][4] - According to CME FedWatch, there is now an 88% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 67% a month ago, reflecting cooling inflation data and concerns over labor market resilience [6][7] Economic Indicators - A busy economic calendar includes the delayed October JOLTS report, which will provide insights into US hiring activity, layoffs, and quits, with investors looking for signs of weakening demand that could justify policy easing [8] - Additional inflation indicators and claims data later in the week will offer further context on economic cooling, consumer resilience, and wage pressures [9] Earnings Season - Earnings season is in focus with major companies like Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco set to report, which will provide insights into cloud demand, AI investment, enterprise spending, and US consumer strength [14][17][15] Commodity Market - Silver prices are hovering near historic highs, trading at $58.855, driven by ETF inflows and shifting rate expectations, with total holdings of silver-backed ETFs increasing by 590 tons last week, the strongest inflow since July [16][18] - Gold prices also edged higher, benefiting from expectations that lower US interest rates will boost demand for non-yielding stores of value [19]