在肿瘤和自免之后，强势崛起的减重赛道，是对未来若干年全球医药产业格局影响最大的一个变量。 围绕着减重赛道的军备竞赛，已经成为诸多医药巨头优先级最高的研发课题之一，相关的并购与BD交 易也呈现极为活跃的状态。 就在刚刚过去的9月，辉瑞公司以惊人的73亿美元的对价，收购了成立时间仅仅3年多的Biotech公司 Metsera，以获得对方的一揽子减重药物管线。 对于中国创新药公司而言，在过去一年多的时间内，也产生了多起首付款超1亿美元的减重药物管线对 外BD，买主包括诺和诺德、默克、再生元多家大型跨国药企。 但是这或许只是一个序曲，在减重药物这个战略性的赛道，属于中国创新药公司的辉煌篇章，还在酝酿 之中。 安全性更优的ActRII单抗 2025年9月29日，一款来自中国Biotech公司来凯医药（02105）的ActRII单抗LAE102，公布了I期临床 MAD研究数据。 这是一项随机、双盲、安慰剂对照研究，旨在评估皮下给药的LAE102在超重/肥胖受试者中的安全性、 耐受性、药代动力学和药效学特征。 一方面，是在MAD试验中，观察到了LAE102的增肌减脂的趋势：在第5周时，LAE102的6mg/kg剂量组 的受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a loss of 130 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight improvement from a loss of 144 million yuan in the same period last year, highlighting its ongoing challenges in achieving profitability and revenue generation [1] Pipeline and Product Development - The company's pipeline focuses on two main areas: ActRII target drugs in the metabolic field aimed at weight loss and muscle gain, and various targets in the oncology field including AKT and CYP17A1 [3][5] - The ActRII target drug LAE102 has become the core of the company's valuation, with ongoing clinical research aimed at developing it as a new therapy for muscle-related and other diseases [5][6] - LAE102 is positioned uniquely as it aims to achieve both fat loss and muscle gain, a shift from its initial focus on cancer treatment [6][7] - The company has initiated clinical trials for LAE102, with plans to complete the primary phase of the U.S. trial by the fourth quarter of 2025 [7][8] Clinical Trials and Collaborations - The company has partnered with Eli Lilly to conduct Phase I clinical trials for LAE102 in the U.S., retaining global rights for the drug [7] - LAE103 and LAE123, additional ActRII antibody drugs, are also in development, with LAE103 having received FDA approval for clinical trials [8] - The company is actively seeking strategic partnerships to accelerate the development and commercialization of its products, particularly LAE002 and LAE001 in the oncology space [9][10] Market Position and Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in the oncology sector, particularly with the AKT target, where many competitors have struggled to achieve successful drug approvals [10] - Despite the innovative potential of LAE102, its clinical value remains to be fully validated, and the company's future valuation hinges on the success of its clinical trials [7][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC has initiated coverage on Lai Kai Pharmaceutical-B (02105) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 27.02, indicating a potential upside of 43.7% from the current stock price, based on DCF valuation [1] - Lai Kai is a global biopharmaceutical company focusing on metabolic and oncology diseases, recognized as a rising player in the domestic fat loss and muscle gain sector [1] - The market perceives Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab data as strong, revealing the drug's potential for fat loss and muscle gain through targeting the ActRII receptor, which aligns with the clinical demand for higher quality weight loss solutions [2][3] Group 2 - The global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) is rapidly expanding, projected to reach USD 14.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 86.6% of the global obesity drug market, with an expected increase to 93.9% by 2034, reaching USD 54.1 billion [2] - There are concerns regarding muscle loss associated with GLP-1RA weight loss drugs, as studies indicate that over 40% of the weight lost may come from lean body mass, highlighting the need for therapies that promote fat loss while preserving muscle [2] - LAE102, a monoclonal antibody developed by Lai Kai targeting ActRIIA, shows promise in promoting muscle regeneration and reducing fat, with ongoing Phase I clinical trials in China and the US [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the collaboration between Lai Kai Pharmaceutical and Eli Lilly for the LAE102 clinical trial targeting obesity in the U.S. [1][2] - Lai Kai's LAE102 is a monoclonal antibody targeting ActRIIA, entering clinical trials alongside Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab, indicating a competitive landscape in the obesity treatment sector [1][3][9] - Eli Lilly is intensifying its focus on ActRII targets, launching multiple clinical trials for Bimagrumab in a short timeframe, reflecting confidence in its potential [3][6] Company Developments - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical has updated its clinical trial protocol for LAE102, which is set to begin patient enrollment by the end of April 2025 [1][2] - The partnership with Eli Lilly allows Lai Kai to retain global rights for LAE102 while Eli Lilly manages the trial in the U.S. [1] - Lai Kai's ongoing Phase I trials in China have shown promising safety and tolerability results, with no severe adverse events reported [12] Industry Trends - Eli Lilly's strategy to combine Bimagrumab with other treatments aims to address the muscle loss associated with GLP-1 weight loss drugs, positioning it as a leading player in the metabolic drug market [4][6] - The ActRII target is gaining traction as a promising area for drug development, with both Lai Kai and Eli Lilly actively pursuing research in this space [8][13] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with Lai Kai's differentiated approach to targeting ActRIIA potentially offering advantages over Eli Lilly's dual-target Bimagrumab [9][11] Market Potential - The article suggests that Lai Kai Pharmaceutical, with a market capitalization of 5 billion HKD, has significant growth potential in the metabolic drug sector as it advances its clinical pipeline [15] - The increasing focus on ActRII as a target for obesity treatment reflects broader industry trends towards innovative solutions for weight management [4][14]