证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current A-share market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of fluctuations in early 2026 due to concentrated inflows into the CSI A500 ETF and other factors. However, favorable conditions for the spring market remain intact, suggesting a focus on thematic opportunities rather than traditional cyclical plays [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market has shown a significant liquidity-driven rally, with the CSI A500 ETF experiencing concentrated inflows, indicating a rapid influx of new capital [2][5]. - Factors supporting the spring market include: 1. Loose market liquidity, with private equity firms increasing purchases and insurance companies potentially reallocating to A-shares due to high premium growth [5]. 2. A continuous time window supporting risk appetite, highlighted by key events such as the Spring Festival in February, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article suggests a focus on "non-main battlefield" spring themes, where opportunities lie in thematic investments rather than traditional cyclical sectors like AI and beta plays, which are currently limited [6][7]. - Thematic rotations are expected in spring, including: 1. Industrial themes (e.g., commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion). 2. Funding themes (e.g., from CSI A500 to insurance allocations). 3. Policy themes (e.g., Hainan, service consumption) [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook remains bullish, with a two-phase bull market anticipated: the first phase being a structural bull market in technology, currently at a high level, and the second phase expected in the second half of 2026, driven by fundamental improvements and increased asset allocation towards equities [7][9]. - The spring market is characterized by a lack of capital scarcity and favorable time windows, suggesting widespread profit-making opportunities across various themes [6][9].