申万宏源傅静涛："牛市1.0"科技结构牛可能在2026年春季来到高峰 相关快讯 21世纪经济报道 孙永乐 相关文章 2025-11-18 12:21 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息"，可能在 2026年春季来到高峰：AI产业趋势还有纵深，但A股AI产业链股价已处于长期低性价比区域。这神似 2014年初的创业板，2018年初的食品饮料和2021年初的新能源。历史上，通常需经历"怀疑牛市级别"的 调整，再延续产业趋势行情。（21世纪经济报道） 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息" ...

申万宏源策略 牛市两段论——申万宏源2026年A股投资策略 原创 阅读全文 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 牛市两段论 申万宏源2026年A股投资策略 证券分析师： 傅静涛 A0230516110001 程翔 A0230518080007 韦春泽 A0230524060005 林丽梅 A0230513090001 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 冯彧 A0230525080001 金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 陆灏川 A0230520080001 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 李一民 A0230515080002 董易 A0230519110003 2025.11.17 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一、全球竞争加剧，已经是无法回避的时代背景。"十五五"规划外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"，直面话语权竞争。A股也应拥抱"竞争思维"，不要惧怕竞争：竞争事件催化 确实仍会冲击风险偏好，但竞争加剧已成事实，A股正在转向定价竞争的成败得失。 ◼ 优化外循环是"十五五"规划表述变化较多的内容。对 ...

| 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 1.58 | 11.49 | 57.66 | | 房地产 | 0.39 | 1.15 | 19.74 | | 银行 | 0.26 | 7.99 | 3.30 | | 跌幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 ◼ | | 电子 | -3.09 | -5.68 | 40.82 | | 通信 | -2.46 | -2.37 | 59.05 | | 传媒 | -2.16 | -1.97 | 21.58 | 今日重点推荐 向"改革"要红利——2026 年宏观形势展望 ◼ 2025：信心"走出谷底"，趋势"渐行渐近"。 ◼ 2026：向"改革"要红利，时不我待。 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3990 | -0.97 | 3.24 | -0.18 | | 深证综指 | 2512 | -1.36 | ...

2025 年 11 月 16 日 牛市两段论 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 A 股 策 略 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com ⚫ 一、全球竞争加剧，已经是无法回避的时代背景。"十五五"规划外循环从"跟跑"到"领 跑"，直面话语权竞争。A 股也应拥抱"竞争思维"，不要惧怕竞争：竞争事件催化确实 仍会冲击风险偏好，但竞争加剧已成事实，A 股正在转向定价竞争的成败得失。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 A 股策略 一、全球竞争加剧，已经是无法回避的时代背景。"十五五"规划外循环从"跟跑" 到"领跑"，直面话语权竞争。A 股也应拥抱"竞争思维"，不要惧怕竞争：竞争事件 催化确实仍会冲击风险偏好，但竞争加剧已成事实，A 股正在转向定价竞争的成败得 失。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares during two phases: the industrial trend fermentation phase and the phase where Chinese assets are generally superior with clear structural main lines. The outlook remains positive for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly favoring high elasticity in the Hang Seng Technology Index [1]. Short-term Market Structure Characteristics - The technology growth sector currently lacks long-term cost-effectiveness, experiencing high volatility while awaiting industrial trend catalysts. The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating narrowly, with the technology growth sector showing wide fluctuations. The absence of a dominant structure to lead the market breakout is noted, similar to previous years when long-term low cost-effectiveness areas struggled to gain valuation [2][3]. Mid-term Market Judgments - The "two-stage bull market" theory is maintained, with the first stage of the technology structure bull market occurring in 2025. The spring of 2026 may present challenges, including a critical verification period for demand and sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas. The market is expected to experience a structural breakthrough, but the timing and conditions for a comprehensive bull market are still developing [4]. Upcoming Market Trends - The market is anticipated to see a rotation in sectors, particularly with the PPI turning positive and the emergence of price increase catalysts. The sectors of energy storage and photovoltaics are expected to show early signs of recovery, with potential for further upward movement in the AI industry, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries [5]. Quantitative Indicators - Various quantitative indicators show a continued expansion of profit effects across sectors, with significant participation from coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel. However, sectors like non-ferrous metals and transportation are experiencing contraction [9]. ETF Market Overview - The ETF market reflects varied performance across sectors, with notable changes in share volumes and price fluctuations. For instance, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF has seen a 1.6% increase in share volume over five trading days, while the Southern CSI New Energy ETF has experienced a 1.2% decrease [10].

Group 1 - The short-term market structure indicates that technology growth has insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness, leading to high-level fluctuations while waiting for industrial trend catalysts to accumulate [1][5][6] - The recent narrow fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the wide fluctuations in technology growth reflect a lack of dominant structures to lead the market breakthrough [2][5][6] - The historical experience shows that when long-term cost-effectiveness is low, the difficulty of earning valuation money significantly increases, requiring continuous verification of industrial catalysts and high growth in performance to sustain effective upward trends [2][5][6] Group 2 - The mid-term market judgment maintains a "two-stage bull market" theory, with 2025's technology structure bull market being the first stage, and the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak [7][8] - The market may face three challenges in spring 2026: verification of demand-side key periods, increased sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas, and the need for time to wait for new structural highlights in the domestic technology industry [7][8] - The bull market is expected to have depth, with conditions for a comprehensive bull market becoming increasingly sufficient over time, and at least three mid-term returns yet to be realized [8] Group 3 - The economic direction for the next year is expected to evolve with a rotation in the fourth quarter, driven by the price increase cycle and the anticipated turning point in PPI [10] - The rotation of sectors will continue, with potential upward opportunities in the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense industries [10] - The report highlights that the market has already begun to anticipate the economic improvement of 2026, with the electricity equipment sector nearing low cost-effectiveness and the price increase cycle showing short-term cost-effectiveness limitations [10]