Group 1 - The report indicates that the "Shenwan Hongyuan Gold Stock Portfolio" reflects the market outlook and style judgment for the upcoming month, showcasing the research team's capabilities and competitiveness in the market [1][11] - The previous portfolio showed a slight increase of 0.14% from December 1 to December 31, 2025, with the A-share portfolio averaging a 0.80% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 2.06% and 2.28%, respectively [6][15] - Since the first release of the gold stock portfolio on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 401.73%, with the A-share portfolio up by 293.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 271.65 and 260.01 percentage points, respectively [6][15] Group 2 - The strategy judgment for the current period maintains that the conditions supporting the spring market remain unchanged, with liquidity in the stock market being loose and upcoming events likely to boost risk appetite [14] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical Alpha and thematic rotation opportunities, particularly in basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and high-dividend strategies [14] - The top recommended stocks include "Iron Triangle" stocks: Hualu Hengsheng, Lingyi Technology, and CIMC Enric (Hong Kong), along with other stocks such as Xingfa Group, TBEA, Chifeng Gold, WuXi AppTec, China National Glass, Ping An Insurance (Hong Kong), and Alibaba-W (Hong Kong) [6][17][18] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the top ten gold stocks, with Hualu Hengsheng benefiting from favorable policies in the domestic chemical industry, and Lingyi Technology experiencing high growth in AI and robotics [17][20] - CIMC Enric is positioned to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and clean energy equipment orders, while Xingfa Group has a solid base in phosphate and specialty chemicals [18][20] - Other notable stocks include WuXi AppTec, which is seeing strong global demand in the CXO industry, and Alibaba-W, which is accelerating its integration from data centers to application layers in AI [18][22]

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 27 日 春季主题行情已赢在当下 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/22-25/12/27) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 图表目录 | 图 1：短期中证 A500ETF 份额数快速上行，主要来自于规模最大产品的贡献 3 | | --- | | 图 2：电子和电力设备在中证 A500 中的权重较高，中证 A500ETF 规模扩张，构 | | 成短期行业反弹的基础 3 | | 图 3：量化情绪指标跟踪 5 | | 图 4：重点 ETF 跟踪 7 | 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股连续上涨， ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：申万宏源策略 一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。12月全球货币政策 关键验证期，有望平稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重新成为主导资产定价的预期。A股面 临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 日央行加息25基点符合预期，而后续加息的幅度和时机取决于通胀与经济的演变，日央行鸽派加息，日 元兑美元进一步贬值。套息交易退潮担忧缓解。此前，美联储降息符合预期，重启扩表早于预期，且表 述并不鹰派，叠加特朗普表示下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。至此，12月全球货币政策关键验 证期，资本市场大概率能平稳度过。后续，美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽的中期预期，可能重新 主导资产定价。增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问题解决后，2026年2月后才是观察期。 未来一段时间，A股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 二、春季股市流动性仍宽松：10月高净值投资者回调增配私募；保险开门红可期，但提前博弈不足；沪 深300和A500 ETF净申购放量。春季稳定资本市场预期窗口较多：2月春节，3月两会，4月特朗 ...

一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。 12 月全球货币政策关键验证期，有望平 稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重 新成为主导资产定价的预期。A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 日央行加息 25 基点符合预期，而后续加息的幅度和时机取决于通胀与经济的演变， 日央行鸽派加息，日元兑美元进一步贬 值。套息交易退潮担忧缓解。此前，美联储降息 符合预期，重启扩表早于预期，且表述并不鹰派，叠加特朗普表示下一任美 联储主席人 选必须"超级鸽派"。至此，12 月全球货币政策关键验证期，资本市场大概率能平稳 度过。后续，美国中期选举 年，货币 + 财政双宽的中期预期，可能重新主导资产定价。 增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问题解决后，2026 年 2 月后才是观察期。 未来一段时间，A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 春季主线资产向上有阻力的判断不变，春季行情可能先在非主战场上演绎。11 月 下旬以来，A 股市场面临的宏观环境出现 了"还原"，风格特征也还原了10月底之前 的状态。但向上有阻力的问题并未根本解决。光连接 Alpha 逻辑演绎，但 26 年美股 科 技龙头 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 非主战场的春季躁动 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/15-25/12/20) 相关研究 证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。12 ● 月全球货币政策关键验证期，有望平稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重新成 为主导资产定价的预期。 A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 12 月全球货币政策关键验证期,有望平稳收官。后续,美国中期选举年,货币 + 财政双 O 宽的中期预期，可能重新主导资产定价。增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问 题解决后，2026年 2 月后才是观察期。A 股面临的海外环 ...

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The global monetary policy is entering a critical verification period in December, with expectations for a smooth conclusion. The U.S. midterm election year is likely to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing as dominant factors in asset pricing, potentially stabilizing the overseas environment for A-shares [4][5][9]. - Spring liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity and significant net subscriptions for the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs. Key windows for stabilizing capital market expectations include the upcoming Chinese New Year, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [4][5][9]. - The spring market may face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions and limited upward space. The focus may shift to non-main battlefield themes such as industrial and policy themes, high-dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [5][9]. Market Environment - The Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike of 25 basis points aligns with expectations, while the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish stance on rate cuts suggests a stable capital market environment ahead. The U.S. midterm elections may lead to renewed monetary and fiscal easing, impacting asset pricing [4][5]. - The spring market is characterized by ample liquidity, with private equity fund management scales increasing significantly in October. Insurance products are expected to perform well, and there is a notable increase in net subscriptions for major ETFs [4][5][9]. Investment Strategy - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market" scenario, with the first stage (2025) already at a high level and currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations. The second stage (2026) is anticipated to be driven by fundamental improvements, technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [9]. - The spring market is expected to see active themes in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, service consumption, and robotics, with high-dividend assets showing strong short-term value. The focus for cyclical investments will likely remain on industrial metals and basic chemicals [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reverted to its previous state before late October, but the upward potential remains constrained. The only industry showing short-term upward movement is optical connectivity, while concerns about the decline in capital expenditure among leading US tech companies in 2026 persist, impacting the AI industry chain [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - Since late November, the macro environment for the A-share market has "reverted," reflecting the characteristics seen before late October. However, the upward space remains limited, with only optical connectivity showing potential for upward breakthroughs [2][3]. - The expectation for stable growth has been adjusted downward, and the anticipated return of the Federal Reserve's easing policies has led to a resurgence in optical connectivity, while other tech growth sectors are experiencing a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, with the structural characteristics reverting to those observed before late October [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The core idea of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is to "practice internal skills to cope with external challenges," with a focus on maintaining policy momentum in 2024 and potential marginal improvements in 2026 [5][6]. - Key policy points include addressing issues related to development and transformation, emphasizing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation in key regions [6][7]. - The market anticipates that if economic results improve in the first half of 2026, additional efforts to stabilize growth in the second half are likely [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (tech structural bull) already at a high level, and the market currently in a quarterly high-level oscillation phase [7][8]. - The first half of 2026 is expected to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half may see a comprehensive bull market driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7][8]. - Spring market trends are expected to focus on small-scale opportunities, particularly in optical connectivity and other tech sectors, with potential for new high-level oscillation phases [8].

2025 年 12 月 13 日 宏观环境"还原"，A 股向上空间受 限未变 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08-25/12/13) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 一、11 月下旬以来，A 股市场面临的宏观环境出现了"还原"，风格特征也还原了 10 月 底之前的状态。但向上空间受限的问题并未根本解决：光连接 Alpha 逻辑演绎，但 26 年 美股科技龙头资本开支回落担忧犹在，AI 产业链 Beta 仍承压。光连接向上 ...

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 战略定力 ——中央经济工作会议点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 A 股 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com - ⚫ 2025 年中央经济工作会议明确了 2026 年"稳中求进、提质增效"的主基调，宏观政策将实施"更加积极 的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"，并强调"存量+增量政策的集成效应"。通稿在基调上展现出更 强的战略定力，明确提出"我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深……这些大多 是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的， ...

责任编辑：杨红卜 华宝是金 bao WP Fund The will and the will be the with and the with and the with and the with the with the with the with the with the with the with the with and the with and the with and the wi 2025年12月 | 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 | 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 中证A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 -0.32% -0.86% -0.66% 数据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至 收盘,AS0ETF华宝子2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 市,中迈A50GETF华宝于2024.12 当日大市行情 H -0.7% -1.41% -1.27% 创业板指 上证指数 爱证成指 较上一日+786亿元 两市成交额1.86万亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 1033 - 46日 4378只 声 持平 =1 上涨 "| 下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申 ...